The DOI matches its Crossref record.
MINIMUM SIZE OF THE ACQUIRED IMMUNODEFICIENCY SYNDROME (AIDS) EPIDEMIC IN THE UNITED STATES
Open accessAbstract
A new method based on the reported incubation period of transfusion-associated AIDS was used to estimate the number of AIDS cases likely to arise in the USA among those infected before 1986. Between 1986 and 1991 102,000 new cases are projected, with a total cumulative incidence of 135,000 AIDS cases. These estimates do not account for new infections after 1985 nor very long incubation periods and are thus the smallest numbers to be expected. Even if new infections can be effectively prevented, the epidemic will be five times larger than the number of cases observed so far.
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Cited by
Statistical analysis of the stages of HIV infection using a Markov model
Longini, I. M., Clark, W. S., Byers, R. H., Ward, J. W., Darrow, W. W., Lemp, G. F., & Hethcote, H. W. (1989) · Statistics in Medicine · doi:10.1002/sim.4780080708 · Cited by 304
The R0 package: a toolbox to estimate reproduction numbers for epidemic outbreaks
Obadia, T., Haneef, R., & Boëlle, P.-Y. (2012) · BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making · doi:10.1186/1472-6947-12-147 · Cited by 300
Metadata
- Authors
- Brookmeyer, R., & Gail, M.
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 1986-12
- Volume
- 328
- Issue
- 8519
- Pages
- 1320-1322
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- OpenAlex
- W1998805047
- Cited by
- 191
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 12.56
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: MINIMUM SIZE OF THE ACQUIRED IMMUNODEFICIENCY SYNDROME (AIDS) EPIDEMIC IN THE UNITED STATES. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1016/s0140-6736(86)91444-3
- The paper
- Brookmeyer, R., & Gail, M. (1986). MINIMUM SIZE OF THE ACQUIRED IMMUNODEFICIENCY SYNDROME (AIDS) EPIDEMIC IN THE UNITED STATES. The Lancet. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(86)91444-3
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
