The DOI matches its Crossref record; 10 of the 10 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Climatic warming and increased malaria incidence in Rwanda
Abstract
Global climatic change is expected to increase the incidence of vector-borne diseases, especially malaria. This study assessed the contribution of climate to a malaria epidemic in Rwanda, focusing on the catchment area of one health centre where diagnosis was consistent and non-climatic variables well monitored. In late 1987 malaria incidence in the area increased by 337% over the 3 previous years. The increase was greatest in groups with little acquired immunity--children under 2 years (564%) and people in high-altitude areas (501%). Case-fatality rose significantly (relative risk = 4.85, p < 0.001). 1987 also saw record high temperatures and rainfall. An autoregressive equation including lagged effects of these two variables explained 80% of the variance in monthly malaria incidence. Temperature (especially mean minimum) predicted incidence best at higher altitudes where malaria had increased most. Empirically derived relations were consistent with the estimated generation time of the disease and with the known sensitivity of the plasmodium parasite to temperature. The patterns of climatic warming between day and night and among seasons will be critical to the effect on malaria. These findings are most relevant to regions near the altitude or latitude limits of the disease, where several epidemics have lately been reported.
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“Studies in East Africa have shown that rainfall significantly correlates with malaria transmission with a lag time of 1–2 months (Loevinsohn, 1994; Zhou et al., 2004).”
From Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology‐Based Model (2023) · cites this paper as Loevinsohn, 1994
Citations
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Items 301–307 of 307
Karema, C., Wen, S., Sidibe, A., Smith, J. L., Gosling, R., Hakizimana, E., Tanner, M., Noor, A. M., & Tatarsky, A. (2020) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.13064496
Murindahabi, M. M., Takken, W., Misago, X., Niyituma, E., Umupfasoni, J., Hakizimana, E., van Vliet, A. J. H., Poortvliet, P. M., Mutesa, L., Murindahabi, N. K., et al. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.13551801
Murindahabi, M. M., Takken, W., Misago, X., Niyituma, E., Umupfasoni, J., Hakizimana, E., van Vliet, A. J. H., Poortvliet, P. M., Mutesa, L., Murindahabi, N. K., et al. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.13551804
Climate change and malaria control in Africa: country experiences and strategic responses
Yahouédo, G. A., Merle, C. S., Diallo, I., Ndiop, M., Muhire, A., Mukashema, C., Mutabazi, A., Hakizimana, E., Muteba, C., Kaseba, A. N., et al. (2026) · Malaria Journal · doi:10.1186/s12936-026-05885-1
Strategies for Assessing the Health Impacts of Global Environmental Change
McMichael, A. J., & Kovats, S. R. (2000) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-011-5876-3_14
Carretero (1998) · doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079
Metadata
- Authors
- Loevinsohn, M. E.
- Affiliations
- University of Rwanda (RW)
- Corresponding author
- Loevinsohn, M.E.
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 1994-03
- Volume
- 343
- Issue
- 8899
- Pages
- 714-718
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- OpenAlex
- W2155865951
- Cited by
- 308
- References
- 10
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 22 · 2012: 16
- FWCI
- 12.84
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Keywords
- malaria incidence, climate change, global warming, rainfall, malaria epidemic, case fatality, children under 2 years, high altitude
- MeSH terms
- Altitude, Catchment Area, Health, Child, Child, Preschool, Disease Outbreaks, Hot Temperature, Humans, Infant, Rain, Rwanda, Seasons, Malaria, Falciparum
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