Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in probability elicitation with an example from hazardous waste management
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Uncertainty in data-driven decision-making systems may stem from different sources and thus communicate different information to stakeholders.
“Broadly, uncertainty in datadriven decision-making systems may stem from different sources and thus communicate different information to stakeholders [36,52].”
From Uncertainty as a Form of Transparency: Measuring, Communicating, and Using Uncertainty (2021) · cites this paper as [52]
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Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning: an introduction to concepts and methods
Hüllermeier, E., & Waegeman, W. (2021) · Machine Learning · doi:10.1007/s10994-021-05946-3 · Cited by 1,834 · see citing works
“…modeling, which are essentially based on capturing knowledge in terms of a single probability distribution, fail to distinguish two inherently different sources of uncertainty, which are often referred to as aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty (Hora, 1996; Der Kiureghian and Ditlevsen, 2009).”
BackgroundUncertainty as a Form of Transparency: Measuring, Communicating, and Using Uncertainty
Bhatt, U., Antorán, J., Zhang, Y., Liao, Q. V., Sattigeri, P., Fogliato, R., Melançon, G., Krishnan, R., Stanley, J., Tickoo, O., et al. (2021) · Proceedings of the 2021 AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society · doi:10.1145/3461702.3462571 · Cited by 225 · see citing works
Active Learning for Deep Object Detection via Probabilistic Modeling
Choi, J., Elezi, I., Lee, H.-J., Farabet, C., & Alvarez, J. M. (2021) · 2021 IEEE/CVF International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV) · doi:10.1109/iccv48922.2021.01010 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
Uncertainty-Aware Machine Translation Evaluation
Glushkova, T., Zerva, C., Rei, R., & Martins, A. F. T. (2021) · Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2021 · doi:10.18653/v1/2021.findings-emnlp.330 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
- Authors
- Hora, S. C.
- Affiliations
- University of Hawaii at Hilo (US)
- Corresponding author
- Hora, Stephen C.
- Venue
- Reliability Engineering & System Safety
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 1996-11
- Volume
- 54
- Issue
- 2-3
- Pages
- 217-223
- ISSN
- 0951-8320 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2069266605
- Cited by
- 249
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 32 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 0.63
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Reliability Engineering & System Safety (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Risk and Safety Analysis
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design
- Keywords
- aleatoric uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, probability elicitation, expert opinion, risk assessment, hazardous waste management, hazardous waste disposal, uncertainty classification
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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