Prognostic value of medulloblastoma extent of resection after accounting for molecular subgroup: a retrospective integrated clinical and molecular analysis

Abstract

Summary Background Incomplete surgical resection of medulloblastoma is controversially considered a marker of high-risk disease; driving aggressive surgical resections, “second-look” surgeries, and/or intensified chemoradiotherapy. All prior publications evaluating the clinical importance of extent of resection (EOR) failed to account for molecular subgroup. We analysed the prognostic value of EOR across 787 medulloblastoma samples in a subgroup-specific manner. Methods We retrospectively identified patients from Medulloblastoma Advanced Genomics International Consortium (MAGIC) centres with a histological diagnosis of medulloblastoma and complete extent of resection and survival data. Specimens were collected from 35 international institutions. Medulloblastoma subgroup affiliation was determined using nanoString gene expression profiling on frozen or formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues. Extent of resection (EOR) based on post-operative imaging was classified as gross total (GTR), near total (NTR, <1·5cm2), or subtotal (STR, ≥ 1·5cm2). Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) multivariable analyses including subgroup, age, metastatic status, geographical location of therapy (North America/Australia vs world), and adjuvant therapy regimen were performed. The primary endpoint was the impact of surgical EOR by molecular subgroup and other clinical variables on OS and PFS. Findings 787 medulloblastoma patients (86 WNT, 242 SHH, 163 Group 3, and 296 Group 4) were included in a multivariable Cox model of PFS and OS. The marked benefit of EOR in the overall cohort was greatly attenuated after including molecular subgroup in the multivariable analysis. There was an observed PFS benefit of GTR over STR (hazard ration [HR] 1·45, 95% CI; 1·07–1·96, p=0·02) but there was no observed PFS or OS benefit of GTR over NTR (HR 1·05, 0·71–1·53, p=0·82 and HR 1·14, 0·75–1·72, p=0.55). There was no statistically significant survival benefit to greater EOR for patients with WNT, SHH, or Group 3 patients (HR 1·03, 0·67–1·58, p=0·9 for STR vs. GTR). There was a PFS benefit for GTR over STR in patients with Group 4 medulloblastoma (HR1·97, 1·22–3·17, p=0·01), particularly those with metastatic disease (HR 2·22, 1–4·93, p=0·05). A nomogram based on this multivariable cox proportional hazards model shows the comparably smaller impact of EOR on relative risk for PFS and OS than subgroup affiliation, metastatic status, radiation dose, and adjuvant chemotherapy. Interpretation The prognostic benefit of EOR for patients with medulloblastoma is attenuated after accounting for molecular subgroup affiliation. Although maximal safe surgical resection should remain the standard of care, surgical removal of small residual portions of medulloblastoma is not recommended when the likelihood of neurological morbidity is high as there is no definitive benefit to GTR over NTR. Our results suggest a re-evaluation of the long-term implications of intensified craniospinal irradiation (36 Gy) in children with small residual portions of medulloblastoma. Funding Funding Canadian Cancer Society Research Institute, Terry Fox Research Institute, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, National Institutes of Health, Pediatric Brain Tumor Foundation, Garron Family Chair in Childhood Cancer Research.