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Sea Level Change
Abstract
Executive Summary This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved physical understanding of the components of sea level, the improved agreement of process-based models with observations, and the inclusion of ice-sheet dynamical changes. Past Sea Level Change Paleo sea level records from warm periods during the last 3 million years indicate that global mean sea level has exceeded 5 m above present ( very high confidene ) when global mean temperature was up to 2°C warmer than pre-industrial ( medium confidence ) . There is very high confidence that maximum global mean sea level during the last interglacial period (~129 to 116 ka) was, for several thousand years, at least 5 m higher than present and high confidence that it did not exceed 10 m above present, implying substantial contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This change in sea level occurred in the context of different orbital forcing and with high latitude surface temperature, averaged over several thousand years, at least 2°C warmer than present ( high confidence ) {5.3.4, 5.6.1, 5.6.2,13.2.1} Proxy and instrumental sea level data indicate a transition in the late 19th century to the early 20th century from relatively low mean rates of rise over the previous two millennia to higher rates of rise ( high confidence ).
Overview
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In the citing paper
“Average global sea levels are currently higher than at any point within the last ~115,000 years ( 84 )”
From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [84]
In the citing paper
“The most robust signal captured in salt marsh records from both Northern and Southern hemispheres supports a transition from relatively low rates of change during the Late Holocene (<1 mm/year) to modern rates of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/year from 1993 -2010 C.E. ( 84 ).”
From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [84]
In the citing paper
“Based on local sea-level records spanning the last 2000 years, there is medium confidence that fluctuations in global mean sea level during this interval have not exceeded ~0.25 m on time scales of a few hundred years.”
From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [84]
In the citing paper
“Relative sealevel records indicate that from ~7,000 to 3,000 years ago, global mean sea level rose ~2 to 3 m to near present-day levels ( 84 ).”
From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [84]
Citations
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The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene
Waters, C. N., Zalasiewicz, J., Summerhayes, C., Barnosky, A. D., Poirier, C., Gałuszka, A., Cearreta, A., Edgeworth, M., Ellis, E. C., Ellis, M., et al. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aad2622 · Cited by 2,375
Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO 2 emissions scenarios
Gattuso, J., Magnan, A., Billé, R., Cheung, W. W. L., Howes, E. L., Joos, F., Allemand, D., Bopp, L., Cooley, S. R., Eakin, C. M., et al. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aac4722 · Cited by 1,585
Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
Vitousek, S., Barnard, P. L., Fletcher, C. H., Frazer, L. N., Erikson, L., & Storlazzi, C. D. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7 · Cited by 925
Griffies, S. M., Danabasoglu, G., Durack, P. J., Adcroft, A., Balaji, V., Böning, C. W., Chassignet, E. P., Curchitser, E., Deshayes, J., Drange, H., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016 · Cited by 481
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Larour, E., Seroussi, H. L., Lipscomb, W. H., Gregory, J. M., Abe‐Ouchi, A., Shepherd, A. P., Simon, E., et al. (2020) · The Cryosphere · doi:10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020 · Cited by 461
Metadata
- Authors
- Change, I. P. O. C.
- Corresponding author
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- Venue
- Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press
- Published
- 2014-03-24
- Pages
- 1137-1216
- OpenAlex
- W4254773735
- Cited by
- 342
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 38 · 2021: 52 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 32 · 2018: 36 · 2017: 29 · 2016: 25 · 2015: 27 · 2014: 7
- FWCI
- 57.79
- Type
- book chapter
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Cambridge University Press eBooks (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Earth-Surface Processes › Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Geophysics › Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Keywords
- global mean sea level, sea level rise, regional sea level change, extreme sea levels, sea level projections, paleosea level, Last Interglacial, ice sheet mass loss, orbital forcing
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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