In Defense of HARKing
Abstract
Science is a complex task. It involves the creation and dissemination of knowledge. The creation of knowledge requires identifying and abstracting patterns (i.e., identifying phenomena and theorizing about the processes that bring it about), as well as systematically observing to better see and quantify the patterns (e.g., effect size estimating) or assess the validity of the abstractions used to explain the patterns (i.e., theory testing). To help (a) hone in on what observations would be useful and (b) communicate what the patterns mean, we are encouraged to develop and report hypotheses. That is, strategically , hypotheses facilitate the planning of data collection by helping the researcher understand what patterns need to be observed to assess the merit of an explanation. Meanwhile, tactically , hypotheses help focus the audience on the crucial patterns needed to answer a question or test a theory. When the strategic hypotheses are not supported, it raises a question regarding what to do tactically. Depending on the result (i.e., different direction; null), one might construct a hypothesis to facilitate dissemination without reporting this post hoc construction or remove mention of a hypothesis altogether. This practice is called HARKing (i.e., hypothesizing after results are known). HARKing has been so disparaged as to be considered a “detrimental research practice” (Grand et al., 2018, p. 6). As such, the Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology's (SIOP) Rob…
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If suppressed a priori hypotheses are irrelevant to the final research conclusions, their suppression will not bias those conclusions.
“In particular, if suppressed a priori hypotheses are irrelevant to the final research conclusions, then their suppression will not bias those conclusions (Leung, 2011; Rubin, 2017c, 2019a; Vancouver, 2018).”
From Does preregistration improve the credibility of research findings? (2020) · cites this paper as Vancouver, 2018
Cites
HARKing: Hypothesizing after the results are known
Kerr, N. L. (1998) · Personality and Social Psychology Review · doi:10.1207/s15327957pspr0203_4 · Cited by 1,989 · see citing works
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Does preregistration improve the credibility of research findings?
Rubin, M. (2020) · The Quantitative Methods for Psychology · doi:10.20982/tqmp.16.4.p376 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
“It is also important to appreciate that information about the time at which hypotheses are deduced from objectively a priori theory and evidence does not affect the credibility of hypothesis tests (Lewandowsky, 2019; Mayo. 2015, p. 61; Oberauer & Lewandowsky, 2019; Rubin, 2017c, 2019a; Vancouver, 2018; Worrall, 2014).”
Background
- Authors
- Vancouver, J. B.
- Affiliations
- Ohio University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Vancouver, Jeffrey B.
- Venue
- Industrial and Organizational Psychology
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2018-03
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 73-80
- ISSN
- 1754-9426 (ISSN-L)
- 1754-9434
- OpenAlex
- W2791331854
- Cited by
- 21
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 3 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 3
- FWCI
- 1.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Industrial and Organizational Psychology (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Keywords
- HARKing, negative results, theory testing, effect size estimation
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