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A Bayesian Re-Assessment of the Earliest Radiocarbon Dates from Tiwanaku, Bolivia
Abstract
The development of sociopolitical complexity at Tiwanaku around AD 500 was one of the major episodes of social change in the history of the Lake Titicaca Basin. It was the result of poorly understood processes that took place at a series of ceremonial centers in the preceding centuries. The history of Tiwanaku during this time is especially unclear, because the only radiocarbon dates are from excavations whose details were never completely published. Despite this, there is consensus that Tiwanaku was founded around 300 BC. A re-evaluation of the archaeological context of each of these dates shows many of them to be unreliable. Two Bayesian models from independent excavations agree that Tiwanaku was in fact founded centuries later, most likely around AD 110 (50-170, 1σ). This has important implications for widely used monolith and ceramic sequences, as well as understanding the rise of Tiwanaku and other archaic states.
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Atmospheric mixing near the equator can extend as far south as Lake Titicaca, where IntCal is a better choice than SHCal.
“The Inca Empire is mostly located in the Southern Hemisphere, so SHCal might seem appropriate, but atmospheric mixing near the equator can extend as far south as Lake Titicaca, where IntCal is a better choice (see Finucane et al. 2007:581;Marsh 2012Marsh : 205-6, 2015: 15-6): 15-6).”
From Dating the expansion of the inca empire: bayesian models from Ecuador and Argentina (2017) · cites this paper as Marsh 2012
The Methods section (page not specified in our copy) says IntCal may be appropriate for the Titicaca Basin because of its proximity to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the paper uses IntCal rather than SHCal. It does not explicitly establish that atmospheric mixing reaches Lake Titicaca or conclude that IntCal is categorically the better choice; it also notes evidence supporting SHCal for older dates. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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Cited by
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Dating the expansion of the inca empire: bayesian models from Ecuador and Argentina
Marsh, E. J., Kidd, R., Ogburn, D., & Durán, V. (2017) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/rdc.2016.118 · Cited by 144
Self-citationMarsh, E. J., Bruno, M. C., Fritz, S. C., Baker, P., Capriles, J. M., & Hastorf, C. A. (2018) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/rdc.2018.16 · Cited by 109
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Metadata
- Authors
- Marsh, E. J.
- Venue
- Radiocarbon
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2012
- Volume
- 54
- Issue
- 02
- Pages
- 203-218
- ISSN
- 0033-8222
- 1945-5755
- Cited by
- 1
- References
- 0
- Language
- en
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