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Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses
Open accessAbstract
This article argues that domestic social conflicts are a key to understanding why growth rates lack persistence and why so many countries have experienced a growth collapse since the mid-1970s. It emphasizes, in particular, the manner in which social conflicts interact with external shock on the one hand, and the domestic institutions of conflict-management on the other. Econometric evidence provides support for this hypothesis. Countries that experienced the sharpest drops in growth after 1975 were those with divided societies (as measured by indicators of inequality, ethnic fragmentation, and the like) and with weak institutions of conflict management (proxied by indicators of the quality of governmental institutions, rule of law, democratic rights, and social safety nets).
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Metadata
- Authors
- Rodrik, D.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Corresponding author
- Rodrik, Dani
- ORCID
- Rodrik, Dani
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Growth
- Published
- 1999-12
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 385-412
- ISSN
- 1381-4338 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-7020
- OpenAlex
- W1519324514
- Cited by
- 1,869
- References
- 32
- Citations by year
- 2026: 39 · 2025: 82 · 2024: 77 · 2023: 75 · 2022: 57 · 2021: 58 · 2020: 79 · 2019: 53 · 2018: 62 · 2017: 55 · 2016: 83 · 2015: 63 · 2014: 83 · 2013: 81 · 2012: 86
- FWCI
- 91.18
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Economic Growth (publishedVersion)
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- OpenGrey (Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Harvard University
- University of Toronto
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Development › Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Keywords
- social conflict, external shocks, social fragmentation, inequality, ethnic fragmentation, rule of law, social safety nets, democratic rights, institutional quality
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