Recidivism rates among child molesters and rapists: a methodological analysis
Abstract
We address the high variability in sex offender recidivism rates by examining several of the critical methodological differences that underlie this variability. We used a dataset on 251 sex offenders (136 rapists and 115 child molesters) who were discharged over a 25-year period to examine changes in recidivism as a function of changes in dispositional definition of reoffense (e.g., arrest or conviction), changes in the domain of criminal offenses that are considered, and changes in the length of exposure time. The data indicate that: (a) both rapists and child molesters remain at risk to reoffend long after their discharge, in some cases 15-20 years after discharge; (b) there was a marked underestimation of recidivism when calculating a simple proportion (%) consisting of those who were known to have reoffended during the follow-up period, and (c) there was a marked underestimation of recidivism when the criterion was based on conviction or imprisonment. Forensic, clinical and policy implications of this high variability are discussed.
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Long-term follow-up studies demonstrate that recidivism may persist over a long period, especially for paedophilia.
“long-term follow-up studies demonstrate that recividism may persist over a long period, especially for paedophilia (Prentky 1997).”
From Pharmacological interventions for those who have sexually offended or are at risk of offending (2015) · cites this paper as Prentky 1997
Those convicted of a sexual offence are not homogeneous; the most common distinction is between rapists and child molesters, who are deemed to have different aetiologies, presenting characteristics, and likelihood of reoffending over different time periods.
“The literature also recognises that those convicted of a sexual offence are not homogeneous: the most common distinction is drawn between rapists and child molesters, as these are deemed to have different aetiologies, presenting characteristics, and likelihood of reoffending over different time periods (Prentky 1997; Firestone 2000).”
From Pharmacological interventions for those who have sexually offended or are at risk of offending (2015) · cites this paper as Prentky 1997
Cited by
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Public Perceptions About Sex Offenders and Community Protection Policies
Levenson, J. S., Brannon, Y. N., Fortney, T., & Baker, J. (2007) · Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy · doi:10.1111/j.1530-2415.2007.00119.x · Cited by 556 · see citing works
Pharmacological interventions for those who have sexually offended or are at risk of offending
Khan, O., Ferriter, M., Huband, N., Powney, M. J., Dennis, J. A., & Duggan, C. (2015) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd007989.pub2 · Cited by 144 · see citing works
Psychological interventions for adults who have sexually offended or are at risk of offending
Dennis, J. A., Khan, O., Ferriter, M., Huband, N., Powney, M. J., & Duggan, C. (2012) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd007507.pub2 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Thibaut, F., Cosyns, P., Fedoroff, J. P., Briken, P., Goethals, K., Bradford, J. M. W., & The WFSBP Task Force on Paraphilias (2020) · The World Journal of Biological Psychiatry · doi:10.1080/15622975.2020.1744723 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
- Authors
- Prentky, R. A., Lee, A. F. S., Knight, R. A., & Cerce, D.
- Affiliations
- Justice Resource Institute (US)
- Boston University (US)
- Brandeis University (US)
- Venue
- Law and Human Behavior
- Published
- 1997-12
- Volume
- 21
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 635-659
- ISSN
- 0147-7307 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-661X
- OpenAlex
- W2045494339
- Cited by
- 292
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 9.47
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Law and Human Behavior (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (2r01mh032309-10)
- National Institute of Mental Health (MH-32309)
- National Institute of Justice
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Keywords
- sex offender recidivism, child molesters, rapists, recidivism measurement, exposure time, long-term follow-up, sex offender treatment
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Child, Child Abuse, Sexual, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Massachusetts, Rape, Recurrence, Risk Factors
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