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Arctic decadal and interdecadal variability
Abstract
Atmospheric and oceanic variability in the Arctic shows the existence of several oscillatory modes. The decadal‐scale mode associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and a low‐frequency oscillation (LFO) with an approximate time scale of 60–80 years, dominate. Both modes were positive in the 1990s, signifying a prolonged phase of anomalously low atmospheric sea level pressure and above normal surface air temperature in the central Arctic. Consistent with an enhanced cyclonic component, the arctic anticyclone was weakened and vorticity of winds became positive. The rapid reduction of arctic ice thickness in the 1990s may be one manifestation of the intense atmosphere and ice cyclonic circulation regime due to the synchronous actions of the AO and LFO. Our results suggest that the decadal AO and multidecadal LFO drive large amplitude natural variability in the Arctic making detection of possible long‐term trends induced by greenhouse gas warming most difficult.
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Citations
Cited by
Ocean Circulation and Tropical Variability in the Coupled Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM
Jungclaus, J. H., Keenlyside, N., Botzet, M., Haak, H., Luo, J.-J., Latif, M., Marotzke, J., Mikolajewicz, U., & Roeckner, E. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3827.1 · Cited by 834
Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability
Johannessen, O. M., Bengtsson, L. O., Miles, M. W., Kuzmina, S. I., Семенов, В. А., Alekseev, G. V., Nagurnyi, A. P., Zakharov, V. F., Bobylev, L., Pettersson, L. H., et al. (2004) · Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2004.00060.x · Cited by 658
Serreze, M. C., & Barry, R. G. (2005) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511535888 · Cited by 385
The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic—A Possible Mechanism
Bengtsson, L., Semenov, V. A., & Johannessen, O. M. (2004) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<4045:tetwit>2.0.co;2 · Cited by 375
Chylek, P., Li, J., Dubey, M. K., Wang, M., & Lesins, G. (2011) · doi:10.5194/acpd-11-22893-2011 · Cited by 331
Metadata
- Authors
- Polyakov, I. V., & Johnson, M. A.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2000-12-15
- Volume
- 27
- Issue
- 24
- Pages
- 4097-4100
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2080671954
- Cited by
- 211
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 10.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Polyakov, I. V., & Johnson, M. A. (2000). Arctic decadal and interdecadal variability. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000gl011909
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
