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Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming
Abstract
Arctic variability is dominated by multi‐decadal fluctuations. Incomplete sampling of these fluctuations results in highly variable arctic surface‐air temperature (SAT) trends. Modulated by multi‐decadal variability, SAT trends are often amplified relative to northern‐hemispheric trends, but over the 125‐year record we identify periods when arctic SAT trends were smaller or of opposite sign than northern‐hemispheric trends. Arctic and northern‐hemispheric air‐temperature trends during the 20th century (when multi‐decadal variablity had little net effect on computed trends) are similar, and do not support the predicted polar amplification of global warming. The possible moderating role of sea ice cannot be conclusively identified with existing data. If long‐term trends are accepted as a valid measure of climate change, then the SAT and ice data do not support the proposed polar amplification of global warming. Intrinsic arctic variability obscures long‐term changes, limiting our ability to identify complex feedbacks in the arctic climate system.
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Cited by
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Bond, T. C., Doherty, S. J., Fahey, D. W., Forster, P. M., Berntsen, T., DeAngelo, B. J., Flanner, M. G., Ghan, S., Kärcher, B., Koch, D., et al. (2013) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/jgrd.50171 · Cited by 6,385
Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis
Serreze, M. C., & Barry, R. G. (2011) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.004 · Cited by 2,544
Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change
McGuire, A. D., Anderson, L. G., Christensen, T. R., Dallimore, S., Guo, L., Hayes, D. J., Heimann, M., Lorenson, T. D., Macdonald, R. W., & Roulet, N. (2009) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.1890/08-2025.1 · Cited by 984
Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability
Johannessen, O. M., Bengtsson, L. O., Miles, M. W., Kuzmina, S. I., Семенов, В. А., Alekseev, G. V., Nagurnyi, A. P., Zakharov, V. F., Bobylev, L., Pettersson, L. H., et al. (2004) · Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2004.00060.x · Cited by 658
Self-citationVertical structure of recent Arctic warming
Graversen, R. G., Mauritsen, T., Tjernström, M., Källén, E., & Svensson, G. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06502 · Cited by 600
Metadata
- Authors
- Polyakov, I. V., Alekseev, G. V., Bekryaev, R. V., Bhatt, U., Colony, R. L., Johnson, M. A., Karklin, V. P., Makshtas, A. P., Walsh, D., & Yulin, A. V.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2002-09
- Volume
- 29
- Issue
- 18
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2051483577
- Cited by
- 249
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 14.65
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Polyakov, I. V., Alekseev, G. V., Bekryaev, R. V., Bhatt, U., Colony, R. L., Johnson, M. A., Karklin, V. P., Makshtas, A. P., Walsh, D., & Yulin, A. V. (2002). Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001gl011111
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