The impact of decadal-scale Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Open accessAbstract
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the tropical Indian Ocean show a pronounced warming since the 1950s. We have analyzed the impact of this warming on Sahelian rainfall and on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) by conducting ensemble experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model. Additionally, we investigate the impact of the other two tropical oceans on these two climate parameters. Our results suggest that the warming trend in the Indian Ocean played a crucial role for the drying trend over the West Sahel from the 1950s to 1990s and may also have contributed to the strengthening of the NAO during the most recent decades.
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The long-term downward trend in Sahelian summer rainfall is a unique feature in recent tropical fluctuations and has been associated with SST trends in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
“Such a long-term downward trend in Sahelian summer rainfall is a unique feature in recent tropical fluctuations, and it has been associated with SST trends in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans (Fol-land et al. 1986;Shinoda and Kawamura 1994;Bader and Latif 2003;Giannini et al. 2003;Lu and Delworth 2005).”
From Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979-2002). Part I: Time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall (2008) · cites this paper as Bader and Latif 2003
The Introduction (§1) documents a drying trend in Sahelian rainfall from the 1950s to the 1990s and associates rainfall variability with Atlantic and Indian Ocean SST anomalies. The Results (§3) identify Indian Ocean SSTs as particularly important for the West Sahel drying trend, while finding the Atlantic influence chiefly in coastal regions. Our copy does not establish that the rainfall trend was unique among recent tropical fluctuations. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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References 26 · Cited by 284
Research works printed but not linked: 4
- Hurrell, J. W., Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen, and M. Visbeck (Eds.), The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic significance and environmental impact, 279 pp., American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 2003.
- Latif, M., K. Arpe, and E. Roeckner, Oceanic Control of North Atlantic Sea Level Pressure Variability in Winter, Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 727 -730, 2000.
- Shinoda, M., and R. Kawamura, Tropical rainbelt, circulation, and sea surface temperatures associated with the Sahelian rainfall trend, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 72, 341 -357, 1994.
- Ward, M. N., P. J. Lamb, D. H. Portis, M. el Hamly, and R. Sebbari, Climate variability in northern Africa: Understanding droughts in the Sahel and the Maghreb, in Beyond El Nino: Decadal and interdecadal climate variability, edited by A. Navarra, pp. 119 -140, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 1999.
- Authors
- Bader, J., & Latif, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Cologne (DE)
- Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (DE)
- ORCID
- Latif, M.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2003-11
- Volume
- 30
- Issue
- 22
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2044373456
- Cited by
- 284
- References
- 26
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 18 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 14 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 20 · 2013: 16 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 10.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies, decadal variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, tropical Indian Ocean warming, tropical Pacific, tropical Atlantic, teleconnections
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