Climate change and thresholds of biome shifts in Amazonia
Abstract
We examine potential critical thresholds for biome shift in the Amazonian tropical forest by forcing a potential vegetation model with prescribed climate anomalies and projections from global and regional climate models and different levels of CO 2 fertilization effect under the SRES A2 scenario (2070–2099). The results indicate that tropical forests might be replaced by seasonal forests or savanna over eastern Amazonia with temperature increases of 2–3°C (4–5°C), when CO 2 fertilization effect is not considered (partially considered), depending on precipitation anomaly. A precipitation decrease greater than 30% would trigger the shift from tropical forest to drier biomes, such as savanna and shrubland in southeastern Amazonia. The projected decrease in precipitation during the dry season and the increase of temperature are the main mechanisms driving calculated biome changes. However, biome changes are considerably smaller when the optimum fertilization effect is included.
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A few global climate models indicate a broad range for a potential critical threshold in global warming between 2 and 6 °C.
“Nonetheless, a few global climate models3,14,71–74 indicate a broad range for a potential critical threshold in global warming between 2 and 6 °C (Fig. 3a).”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [72]
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Nepstad, D. C., Stickler, C. M., Filho, B. S., & Merry, F. (2008) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2007.0036 · Cited by 725 · see citing works
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Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abn7950 · Cited by 1,931 · see citing works
Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system
Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0 · Cited by 607 · see citing works
Self-citationEcosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts
Longo, M., Knox, R. G., Levine, N. M., Alves, L. F., Bonal, D., Camargo, P. B., Fitzjarrald, D. R., Hayek, M. N., Restrepo‐Coupe, N., Saleska, S. R., et al. (2018) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.15185 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
- Authors
- Salazar, L. F., & Nobre, C. A.
- Affiliations
- Universidad Industrial de Santander (CO)
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (BR)
- ORCID
- Nobre, Carlos A.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2010-09
- Volume
- 37
- Issue
- 17
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1654688399
- Cited by
- 65
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 2.42
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Biblioteca Digital da Memória Científica do INPE (National Institute for Space Research) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- climate change, biome shifts, critical threshold, savanna expansion, seasonal forest, CO2 fertilization, precipitation decrease, temperature rise, SRES A2 scenario, Eastern Amazon, dry season rainfall
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