Recent weakening of northern East Asian summer monsoon: A possible response to global warming

Abstract

We investigate the possible causes of the weakening of northern East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1954 to 2010. We found that the decreased intensity of northern EASM as measured by a circulation index (EASMI) is significantly correlated with the increase of the surface air temperature (SAT) averaged over the Lake Baikal region (45°–65°N, 80°–130°E) defined as SATI. Corresponding to increasing SATI, an anomalous low‐level anticyclone occurs with northeasterly prevailing over northern East Asia (30°–50°N,100°–130°E), resulting in a weakened southwesterly monsoon winds and drier climate in this region. Numerical experiments with the community atmosphere model version 3 (CAM3) show that the joint forcing induced by greenhouse gases (GHG), sea surface temperature (SST), solar radiance (SR), and volcano activity (VC) can replicate the observed trend of SATI and its related circulation anomalies, but without GHG forcing the model failed to simulate the warming trend of SATI after 1970s. This implies that the global warming is likely responsible for the local warming around the Lake Baikal, which in turn weakens the northern EASM in recent decades.