Stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering could alter the high-latitude seasonal cycle
Open accessAbstract
Abstract Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) has been proposed to reduce some impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Previous studies examined annual mean climate responses to SAG. Here we use the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble simulations to explore the effects of SAG on the seasonal cycle of climate change. Simulations show that relative to the present‐day climate, SAG diminishes the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of temperature at many high‐latitude locations, with warmer winters and cooler summers. The seasonal temperature shift significantly influences the seasonal cycle of snow depth and sea ice, with Arctic sea ice recovery overcompensated in summer by 52% and undercompensated in winter by 8%. We identify that both the dynamic effects of aerosol‐induced stratospheric heating and seasonal variations of sunlight contribute to the shifts in seasonal cycle. Shifts in the seasonal cycle have important ecological and environmental implications, which should be considered in geoengineering impact analysis.
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Many regions could face a seasonal under- or over-compensation in rainfall compared to a high warming average (RCP8.5) from 2010 to 2030, assuming SAI is implemented to mask 5 degrees of warming.
“Many regions could face a seasonal under- or over-compensation in rainfall (compared to a high warming average (RCP8.5) from 2010 to 2030, and assuming SAI is implemented to mask 5 degrees of warming) (Jiang et al., 2019).”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Jiang et al., 2019
Section 2.1 describes an RCP8.5 2010–2030 baseline and SAI simulations providing 5.0 K of cooling in 2075–2095. Section 3 reports seasonal changes in high-latitude temperature and sea ice, including summer overcompensation and winter undercompensation of Arctic sea ice extent. The paper does not report the claimed seasonal under- or overcompensation in rainfall across many regions. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIncreased sulfate concentrations could impact high latitude seasonal temperature cycles.
“high latitude seasonal temperature cycles (Jiang et al 2019)”
From The cost of stratospheric aerosol injection through 2100 (2020) · cites this paper as Jiang et al 2019
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References 49 · Cited by 91
- Authors
- Jiang, J., Cao, L., MacMartin, D. G., Simpson, I. R., Kravitz, B., Cheng, W., Visioni, D., Tilmes, S., Richter, J. H., & Mills, M. J.
- Affiliations
- Zhejiang University (CN)
- Cornell University (US)
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Corresponding author
- Cao, Long
- ORCID
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2019-12-06
- Volume
- 46
- Issue
- 23
- Pages
- 14153-14163
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2993595574
- Cited by
- 91
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 28 · 2020: 6
- FWCI
- 7.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- IUScholarWorks Open (Indiana University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (CBET‐1931641)
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (41422503, 41675063)
- National Basic Research Program of China (2015CB953601)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, sulfate aerosols, seasonal cycle, high-latitude climate, Arctic sea ice, snow depth, stratospheric heating, solar forcing, climate change mitigation
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