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Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century
Open accessAbstract
Characterization of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions helps reduce negative consequences on agriculture, environment, economy, society, and ecosystem. This study assesses shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions across the conterminous United States in response to climate change over the 21st century. The hydrological responses of five downscaled climate models from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs data set ranging from the driest to wettest and least warm to hottest were simulated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. Shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions at 8‐digit hydrologic unit scale (HUC8) were evaluated by the magnitude and direction of movements in the Budyko space. HUC8 river basins were then clustered into seven unique hydroclimatic behavior groups using the K‐means method. A tree classification method was proposed to illustrate the relationships between hydroclimatic behavior groups and regional characteristics. The results indicate that hydroclimatic responses may vary from a river basin to another, but basins in the same neighborhood follow a similar movement in the Budyko space. The systematic hydroclimatic behavior of river basins is highly associated with their regional landform, climate, and ecosystem characteristics. Most HUC8s with mountain, plateau, and basin landform types will likely experience less arid conditions. However, most HUC8s with Plain landform type behave differently according to the regional ecosystem and climate. This study provides a potential roadmap of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions of U.S. river basins, which can be used to improve regional preparedness and ability of various sectors to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of future hydroclimate change.
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“These regions are mainly located in the midwestern and western CONUS, where high evaporation conditions (Heidari et al., 2020) and numerous dams (Bellmore et al., 2017) coincide with complex water use processes (Wada et al., 2016) that current models cannot simulate well.”
From Ensembling differentiable process-based and data-driven models with diverse meteorological forcing datasets to advance streamflow simulation (2025) · cites this paper as Heidari et al., 2020
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Hydroclimatic shifts driven by human water use for food and energy production
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Cited by
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Li, P., Song, Y., Pan, M., Lawson, K., & Shen, C. (2025) · Hydrology and Earth System Sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-29-6829-2025 · Cited by 7
Metadata
- Authors
- Heidari, H., Arabi, M., Warziniack, T., & Kao, S.
- Affiliations
- Colorado State University (US)
- US Forest Service (US)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- Corresponding author
- Heidari, Hadi
- Venue
- Earth's Future
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2020-10
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 10
- ISSN
- 2328-4277 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3082195882
- Cited by
- 57
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 17
- FWCI
- 2.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Earth s Future (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1444758)
- U.S. Geological Survey
- U.S. Forest Service
- Rocky Mountain Research Station
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- climate change impacts, river basins, hydrological response, Variable Infiltration Capacity model, landforms, climate change adaptation, contiguous United States
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