The DOI matches its Crossref record; 57 of the 57 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Increased Flood Exposure Due to Climate Change and Population Growth in the United States
Open accessAbstract
Precipitation extremes are increasing globally due to anthropogenic climate change. However, there remains uncertainty regarding impacts upon flood occurrence and subsequent population exposure. Here, we quantify changes in population exposure to flood hazard across the contiguous United States. We combine simulations from a climate model large ensemble and a high‐resolution hydrodynamic flood model—allowing us to directly assess changes across a wide range of extreme precipitation magnitudes and accumulation timescales. We report a mean increase in the 100‐year precipitation event of ~20% (magnitude) and >200% (frequency) in a high warming scenario, yielding a ~30–127% increase in population exposure. We further find a nonlinear increase for the most intense precipitation events—suggesting accelerating societal impacts from historically rare or unprecedented precipitation events in the 21st century.
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Cites
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., et al. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z · Cited by 7,741
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
Rogelj, J., den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., Schaeffer, R., Sha, F., Riahi, K., & Meinshausen, M. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature18307 · Cited by 3,637 · cited 2×
“Plausible climate scenarios for the late 21st century likely fall in between the “medium” and “high” warming scenarios set forth here—and thus, it would be reasonable to assume that impacts upon extreme precipitation and potential flood hazard would fall somewhere in between these two scenarios (Fuss et al., 2014; Rog…”
BackgroundThe Changing Character of Precipitation
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R. M., & Parsons, D. B. (2003) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-84-9-1205 · Cited by 3,196
Kay, J. E., Deser, C., Phillips, A., Mai, A., Hannay, C., Strand, G., Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S. C., Danabasoglu, G., Edwards, J., et al. (2015) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-13-00255.1 · Cited by 2,493
New Global Hydrography Derived from Spaceborne Elevation Data
Lehner, B., Verdin, K., & Jarvis, A. (2008) · Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union · doi:10.1029/2008eo100001 · Cited by 2,411
Lehner, B., & Grill, G. (2013) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.9740 · Cited by 2,193
Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Kanae, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Handmer, J., Nicholls, N., Peduzzi, P., Mechler, R., Bouwer, L. M., Arnell, N., Mach, K., et al. (2014) · Hydrological Sciences Journal · doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.857411 · Cited by 1,651
Bates, P. D., Horritt, M. S., & Fewtrell, T. J. (2010) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.027 · Cited by 1,273
Self-citationFuss, S., Canadell, J. G., Peters, G. P., Tavoni, M., Andrew, R. M., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Jones, C. D., Kraxner, F., Nakicenovic, N., et al. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2392 · Cited by 1,114
Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble
Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., & Wehner, M. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8 · Cited by 1,082
Metadata
- Authors
- Swain, D. L., Wing, O. E. J., Bates, P. D., Done, J. M., Johnson, K. A., & Cameron, D. R.
- Venue
- Earth's Future
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2020-11
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 11
- ISSN
- 2328-4277 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3096804250
- Cited by
- 294
- References
- 57
- FWCI
- 12.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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- Swain, D. L., Wing, O. E. J., Bates, P. D., Done, J. M., Johnson, K. A., & Cameron, D. R. (2020). Increased Flood Exposure Due to Climate Change and Population Growth in the United States. Earth's Future. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ef001778
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
