Aftershock zones of great earthquakes, seismicity gaps, and earthquake prediction for Alaska and the Aleutians

Abstract

Aftershocks of shallow earthquakes larger than magnitude 7 in the Aleutians, southern Alaska, southeast Alaska, and offshore British Columbia from 1920 to 1970 were relocated by computer in an attempt to delineate the rupture zones of large earthquakes. Plate tectonic theory indicates that gaps in activity for large earthquakes for the past 10's to 100's of years are likely sites of future large earthquakes. Three prominent gaps of this type are delineated: one in southeast Alaska; another in southern Alaska near the epicenters of the great earthquakes of 1899 and 1900; and one in the far western Aleutians. These gaps deserve high priority for study and instrumentation. Large earthquakes appear to be much more regular than smaller shocks in their distributions with respect to space, time, and size. Aftershock zones of events since 1930 that are larger than magnitude 7.8 are longer than 250 km and those less than 7.5 are shorter than 125 km. The rupture zones of events that occurred before 1930 could not be delineated from aftershock locations. Aftershock zones of large earthquakes tend to abut without significant overlap even for rupture zones as long as 1200 km. Nearly the entire Alaska-Aleutian zone from 145°W to 171°E has broken since 1938 in a series of large earthquakes. The rupture zones of five large events appear to form a space-time sequence that progressed from 155°W in 1938 to 171°E in 1965. This sequence is much like the well-known westward progression of activity since 1939 along the North Anatolian fault. Shocks with long rupture zones tend to occur along those parts of the Alaska-Aleutian zone that are relatively simple tectonically. The ends of many aftershock zones of large earthquakes are located at the intersection of major transverse features with the Aleutian arc. Large earthquakes rarely, if ever, reoccur along the same part of a fault zone in less than several tens of years, i.e. within a time less than that for substantial strain accumulation. Events of comparable magnitude that occur soon after some great earthquakes usually involve rupture in a region adjacent to but different from that of the main shock. The March 30, 1965, earthquake of magnitude 7.5, which involved normal faulting in the Aleutian trench, appears to have been triggered by thrust faulting along the adjacent inner margin of the trench in the magnitude 7.9 earthquake of February 4, 1965. Large events of the thrust type are commonly followed within ten years by events involving normal faulting in the adjacent part of the trench. Estimates of average displacements and of the repeat times of great earthquakes from measurements of 20-sec surface waves are systematically too small and do not agree with the meager historic record of great shocks. Other estimates of repeat times vary from 30 to 850 years, but neither of these extremes appears to be typical. The aftershock zone of the April 1, 1946, Aleutian earthquake, which generated one of the largest and most widespread seismic sea waves in the Pacific during this century, was very small. A large displacement of the ocean floor may be responsible for the generation of the large sea wave. An average displacement of 2.4 to 4.1 meters was calculated from amplitudes of 100-sec waves.