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Rupture zones of large South American earthquakes and some predictions

Kelleher, John A.·1972·Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI 10.1029/jb077i011p02087
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Abstract

This study attempts to forecast likely locations for large shallow South American earthquakes in the near future by examining the past space-time pattern of occurrence of large (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes, the lateral extent of their rupture zones, and, where possible, the direction of rupture propagation. Rupture zones of large shallow earthquakes generally abut and do not overlap. Patterns of rupture propagation appear to follow certain trends. These facts, plus the nonrandom behavior of the space-time history of seismic activity, present consistencies that may permit prediction, in a gross sense, of future events. By mapping the rupture zones of large earthquakes (in contrast with plotting only epicenters), it is possible to identify segments of the shallow seismic zone that have not ruptured in many decades. Limited experience elsewhere indicates that these gaps between rupture zones tend to be filled by large-magnitude earthquakes. In certain places it is possible to make approximate estimates of the time of occurrence of the next large earthquake. For at least 300 or 400 years, the entire fault segment near the Central Valley province of central and southern Chile (about 32°–46°S) has fractured about once each century from a generally N-S progression of several large (M ≥ 8) earthquakes. Large earthquakes in this region have almost always occurred to the south of a previous large earthquake. In addition, it is possible to infer a direction of rupturing for two large earthquak…

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  • The La Tolita area has registered some of the strongest earthquakes of the 20th century, some accompanied by tsunamis and vertical deformation of the coastal margin.

    “This area has registered some of the strongest earthquakes of the 20th century (1906, Ms 8.7; 1942, Ms 7.9; 1958, Ms 7.8; 1979, Ms 7.9) (Kelleher 1972; Herd, Youd et al. 1981; Swenson and Beck 1996), as it did in 1868 and 1875 (Scheu 1911), some of them accompanied by tsunamis (Scheu 1911; Herd, Youd et al. 1981; Espinoza 1992) and vertical deformation of the coastal margin (Herd, Youd et al. 1981”

    From Did the flowering of the La tolita culture 3000 BP result from a natural disaster (2011) · cites this paper as Kelleher 1972

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Research works printed but not linked: 49

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Metadata

Authors
Kelleher, J. A.
Venue
Journal of Geophysical Research
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published
1972-04-10
Volume
77
Issue
11
Pages
2087-2103
ISSN
0148-0227
DOI
10.1029/jb077i011p02087
Cited by
406
References
0
Language
en
Licence
doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1 (tdm, 15849 d)

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