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Seasonal amplitude increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, 1959–1982
Abstract
The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa Observatory exhibits a seasonal pattern that repeats with striking regularity from year to year. The amplitude of this seasonal signal, expressed either by peak‐to‐peak changes in concentration or as a series of harmonic terms, increased at an average rate of about 0.7% per year from 1958 to 1982. The estimated standard error in the linear coefficient of increase is 0.09%. Thus the increase appears to be highly significant statistically. A detailed examination of methods of calibration and of data analysis during this long record do not reveal any inconsistencies large enough to be responsible for the increase. Because the seasonal cycle of CO 2 in the northern hemisphere is thought to be due principally to the metabolic activity of terrestrial vegetation, it is likely that at least part of the increase is a result of increasing plant activity.
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“This cycle produces a 1–2% change in the CO2 abundance over the year”
From Reflections on O 2 as a Biosignature in Exoplanetary Atmospheres (2017) · cites this paper as Bacastow et al., 1985
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“Many researchers (Pales et al., 1965; Thoning et al., 1989; Komhyr et al., 1989; Zhao et al., 1997; Bacastow et al., 1985; Keeling et al., 1976; 1982; 1995; 1996) utilized the carbon data from the Mauna Loa Observatory and obtained nice results about atmospheric carbon dioxide.”
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“Bacastow et al. (1985), Keeling et al. (1996) and Myneni et al. (1997) reported an increase in the annual amplitude of the atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio in the 1980s and 1990s presumably caused by the prolonged growing season.”
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“In addition, measurements in cities have confirmed the existence of an ‘urban CO2 dome’ [17, 18], and it is already well known that the diurnal variability of CO2 concentrations is greater at urban sites than remote sites [19–22].”
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“to result at least in part from increasing plant activity (Bacastow et al. 1985), has been noted, as have interannual variations caused by El Niño events (Bacastow”
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“Long-term trends in these oscillations suggest a gradually increasing amplitude and a progressively earlier draw-down in spring (Cleveland et al. 1983, Bacastow et al. 1985).”
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Large and Increasing Biospheric Productivity of Northern Ecosystems
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InfluentialGlobal field experiments for potato simulations
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“The CO2 measurements over Mauna Loa showed 19.4% increase in the mean annual concentration from 315.98 parts per million by volume (ppmv) of dry air in 1959 to 377.38 ppmv in 2004 (Bacastow et al. 1985).”
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Nonlinear spectral analysis extracts harmonics from land-atmosphere fluxes
Schulz, L., Vollmer, J., Mahecha, M. D., & Mora, K. (2024) · arXiv.org · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2407.19237 · Cited by 1
“By periodic patterns we mean higher order harmonic oscillations 31 from which we construct the seasonal cycle.”
BackgroundMethodFuture Aware Safe Active Learning of Time Varying Systems using Gaussian Processes
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“…al., 2014), possibly caused by continuously polluting sensors (Thewes et al., 2015); systems influenced by periodic trends like seasonal variations (Bacastow et al., 1985; Scherliess and Fejer, 1999); or dynamic systems, where current decisions influence future behavior, such as is reflected in NX…”
Impact of ENSO on variability of global CO2 concentration retrievals from GOSAT and AIRS
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“Seasonal CO2 changes reflect mostly the metabolic activity of terrestrial plants and soils (Bacastow et al., 1985; Nemry et al., 1996), especially in the Northern Hemisphere.”
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Graham, K. A., Holmes, C., Friedrich, G., Rauschenberg, C., Williams, C. R., Bottenheim, J., Chavez, F., Halfacre, J., Perovich, D., Shepson, P., et al. (2022) · Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2022jd036437
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Buys-Ballot Technique for the Analysis of Time Series with a Cubic-Trend Component
Okereke, E. W., Omekara, C. O., & Ekezie, C. K. (2018) · Journal of the Indian Society for Probability and Statistics · doi:10.1007/s41096-018-0047-y
“Following Cleveland et al. (1983) and Bacastow et al. (1985), it can be deduced that the co2 data exhibit trend and seasonal variation.”
BackgroundYuan, Y., Ries, L., Petermeier, H., Steinbacher, M., Gómez-Peláez, Á., Leuenberger, M., Schumacher, M., Trickl, T., Couret, C., Meinhardt, F., et al. (2017) · doi:10.5194/amt-2017-316
“For selecting well-mixed air at elevated mountain sites, night time is usually chosen with a special focus on the exclusion of afternoon periods (Bacastow et al., 1985).”
BackgroundGlobal Properties of the Earth’s Atmosphere
Smirnov, B. (2020) · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-58039-1_2
(2020) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-814608-8.09992-8
Maietta, C. E. (2017) · doi:10.13016/m2c002
“xi recorded every minute from 2 to 10 min. A one-way repeated measures analysis of variances (ANOVA) was used to separately evaluate changes in soil pH associated with 18 MΩ water or CaCl2 over time. The model detected mean differences in soil pH over time for soils prepared in 18 MΩ water (F8, 8 = 13.0, p < 0.01) but…”
BackgroundInfluential
Metadata
- Authors
- Bacastow, R. B., Keeling, C. D., & Whorf, T. P.
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 1985-10-20
- Volume
- 90
- Issue
- D6
- Pages
- 10529-10540
- ISSN
- 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1969078255
- Cited by
- 250
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 26.89
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Plant responses to elevated CO2
- Keywords
- atmospheric CO2, seasonal cycle, Mauna Loa Observatory, plant activity, data calibration
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