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The MDS-CHESS scale: a new measure to predict mortality in institutionalized older people
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To develop a scale predicting mortality and other adverse outcomes associated with frailty. DESIGN: Observational study based on Minimum Data Set (MDS) 2.0 and mortality data. SETTING: Ontario chronic hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: All chronic hospital patients (N = 28,495) assessed with the MDS 2.0 after mandatory implementation in July 1996 followed until May 1999. MEASUREMENTS: MDS 2.0 assessments done as part of normal practice mainly by registered nurses or multidisciplinary teams in a chronic hospital. Mortality data are available from the accompanying discharge tracking form. RESULTS: The MDS‐Changes in Health, End‐stage disease and Symptoms and Signs (CHESS) score is a composite measure addressing changes in health, end‐stage disease, and symptoms and signs of medical problems. It is a strong predictor of mortality ( P < . 0001) independent of the effects of age, sex, activities of daily living impairment, cognition, and do‐not‐resuscitate orders. It is also strongly associated with physician activity, complex medical procedures, and pain ( P < . 001 for each dependent variable). CONCLUSIONS: The CHESS score provides a useful new MDS‐based test to predict mortality and to measure instability in health as a clinical outcome.
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“Frail older people receiving inpatient CGA are more likely to return home, less likely to experience cognitive or functional decline and have lower in-hospital mortality (111).”
From Frailty in elderly people (2013) · cites this paper as [111]
In the citing paper
“The process, provided it is closely linked to interventions, is associated with superior outcomes (111)”
From Frailty in elderly people (2013) · cites this paper as [111]
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Self-citationBeta‐Blocker Use in U.S. Nursing Home Residents After Myocardial Infarction: A National Study
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“The MDS-CHESS scale: a new measure to predict mortality in institutionalized older people.”
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Sex Differences in Care Need and Survival in Patients Admitted to Nursing Home Poststroke
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Self-citationThe Role of Medications in Predicting Activity Restriction Due to a Fear of Falling
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“The Ontario hospital system underwent major restructuring during the mid-1990s and had begun to stabilize by the mid-2000s ( Hirdes et al., 2003 ).”
BackgroundSelf-citationTurcotte, L., Daniel, I., & Hirdes, J. P. (2020) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2019.12.022 · Cited by 11
Self-citationPain-related health care costs for long-term care residents
Guliani, H., Hadjistavropoulos, T., Jin, S., & Lix, L. (2021) · BMC Geriatrics · doi:10.1186/s12877-021-02424-2 · Cited by 10
“A high CHESS score is shown to be a predictive of mortality in the LTC population [38].”
BackgroundBrink, P., & Kelley, M. L. (2015) · Palliative Care Research and Treatment · doi:10.4137/pcrt.s20347 · Cited by 11
Seniors and Alternative Level of Care: Building on Our Knowledge
Jutan, N., Langlois, L., & Damiano, N. (2013) · Healthcare Quarterly · doi:10.12927/hcq.2013.23503 · Cited by 11
“Predicting ALC Days among Persons Admitted to Residential Care Medical stability, as measured by the Changes in Health, End-Stage Disease and Symptoms and Signs (CHESS) scale (Hirdes et al. 2003), was the strongest predictor of ALC days among those admitted to residential care (Figure 2).”
MethodDelirium: pathophysiology, recognition, prevention and treatment
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Self-citationReaume, M., Batista, R., Talarico, R., Guérin, E., Rhodes, E., Carson, S. J., Prud’homme, D., & Tanuseputro, P. (2022) · PubMed · doi:10.1097/pts.0000000000000726 · Cited by 10
“First, approximately 93% of Franco-Ontarians can conduct a conversation in English, which means that most Franco-Ontarians do not face a severe language barrier.49 This point is supported by the fact that only 7.7% of Francophones in our cohort were deemed to have low English proficiency, compared with 52.8% of Alloph…”
BackgroundInfluentialKunkel, E., Tanuseputro, P., Hsu, A. T., Talarico, R., Lapenskie, J., Calder‐Sprackman, S., & Kobewka, D. M. (2020) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2020.09.043 · Cited by 10
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Self-citationIncidence of Lower‐Extremity Fractures in US Nursing Homes
Sine, K., Lee, Y., Zullo, A. R., Daiello, L. A., Zhang, T., & Berry, S. D. (2019) · Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · doi:10.1111/jgs.15825 · Cited by 10
“Residents’ severity of illness was described according to the MDS–Changes in Health, EndStage Disease and Symptoms and Signs score.(20) We also measured individual comorbidities using the MDS.”
MethodSeow, H. Y., Dutta, P., Johnson, M. J., McMillan, K., Guthrie, D. M., Costa, A. P., & Currow, D. C. (2020) · Journal of Pain and Symptom Management · doi:10.1016/j.jpainsymman.2020.11.034 · Cited by 10
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Evaluating the Implementation of the Conversation Starter Kit in Long Term Care
Kaasalainen, S., Sussman, T., Nicula, M., Lawrence, J., Thompson, G. N., McCleary, L., Wickson‐Griffiths, A., You, J. J., & the SPA-LTC team (2021) · SAGE Open Nursing · doi:10.1177/23779608211051824 · Cited by 10
“The average Charlson Comorbidity Index score was 5.4 (SD: 1.89; Table 1) with the majority having a CHESS score of 0 (55%), indicating low tonohealth instability (Hirdes et al., 2003).”
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“Scale scores were also reported and were derived from assessment items: Cognitive Performance Scale (CPS) (0–6) measures cognition [17]; Activities of Daily Living Hierarchy (ADL-H) scale (0–6) measures the ability to perform daily tasks [18]; Changes in Health, End Stage disease, Signs and Symptoms (CHESS) scale (0–5…”
MethodSelf-citationThe computational Patient has diabetes and a COVIDPreprint
Barbiero, P., & Lió, P. (2020) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2020.06.10.20127183 · Cited by 14
“One aspect is a dedicated CHESS-(“Changes in Health, End-stage disease, and Signs and Symptoms” (CHESS) scale based on all the variables and observable considered considered by the model(s) [75, 76].”
Mitchell, L., Poss, J. W., MacDonald, M., Burke, R., & Keefe, J. M. (2023) · BMC Geriatrics · doi:10.1186/s12877-023-04097-5 · Cited by 11
“Selected measures and several embedded scales from the RAI-HC clinical data informed client health status indicators at baseline and over time: information about informal caregiving (hours and co-residing with a caregiver) and caregiver distress (a caregiver is unable to continue, or the primary caregiver expresses de…”
MethodSaari, M., Giosa, J., Holyoke, P., Heckman, G. A., & Hirdes, J. P. (2024) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0300521 · Cited by 9
Self-citationFreeman, S., Hirdes, J. P., Stolee, P., Garcia, J., & Smith, T. F. (2015) · Journal of Pain and Symptom Management · doi:10.1016/j.jpainsymman.2015.06.016 · Cited by 9
Self-citationCheung, G., Chai, Y., Troya, M. I., & Luo, H. (2020) · International Psychogeriatrics · doi:10.1017/s1041610220003853 · Cited by 9
“Scores of CHESS Scale range from 0 (stable) to 5 (highly unstable) (Hirdes et al., 2003).”
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Should frail older adults be in long-term care facilities?
Sørbye, L. W., Sverdrup, S., & Pay, B. B. (2018) · Journal of Multidisciplinary Healthcare · doi:10.2147/jmdh.s155372 · Cited by 9
“Changes in health status, illness, and symptoms were determined by the Changes in Health, End-stage disease and Symptoms and Signs (CHESS) scale.(12) The depression rating scale (DRS) was used as a marker of depression.”
Comparing Changes and Transitions of Home Care Clients in Retirement Homes and Private Homes
Poss, J. W., Sinn, C. J., Grinchenko, G., Salam-White, L., & Hirdes, J. P. (2019) · Canadian Journal on Aging / La Revue canadienne du vieillissement · doi:10.1017/s0714980819000473 · Cited by 9
“…homes; while we adjusted using the CHESS score (a validated scale of health instability that predicts hospitalization and death among frail elderly; Hirdes, Frijters, & Teare, 2003), we did not adjust for specific conditions such as cancer or renal failure, or for the presence of advance…”
Self-citationMcArthur, C., Turcotte, L., Sinn, C. J., Berg, K., Morris, J. N., & Hirdes, J. P. (2022) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2022.04.005 · Cited by 11
Self-citationPrevalence and Correlates of Urinary Incontinence in a Large Cohort of Psychiatric Inpatients
Rabinowitz, T., Martin, L., Montague, P., & Hirdes, J. P. (2011) · Psychiatric Services · doi:10.1176/ps.62.1.pss6201_0097 · Cited by 9
Self-citationPrevention of Incontinence-Associated Skin Damage in Nursing Homes
Bliss, D. Z., Gurvich, O. V., Mathiason, M. A., Eberly, L. E., Savik, K., Harms, S. L., Mueller, C., Wyman, J. F., & Virnig, B. A. (2016) · Western Journal of Nursing Research · doi:10.1177/0193945916666065 · Cited by 9
Predictors of 3-Year Mortality in Institutionalized Nonagenarians: The NonaSantfeliu Study
Formiga, F., Riera‐Mestre, A., Chivite, D., Pujol, R., Ferrer, A., & López‐Soto, A. (2009) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2009.03.013 · Cited by 9
Northwood, M., Didyk, N., Hogeveen, S. E., Nova, A., Kalles, E., & Heckman, G. A. (2023) · Canadian Journal on Aging / La Revue canadienne du vieillissement · doi:10.1017/s0714980823000387 · Cited by 8
Use of the Resident Assessment Instrument to Measure Depression in Indigenous Home Care Clients
Maranzan, K. A., & Stones, M. J. (2013) · Clinical Gerontologist · doi:10.1080/07317115.2013.816814 · Cited by 8
“Physical Health The CHESS scale assesses instability in health and frailty (Hirdes et al., 2003).”
BackgroundSlaughter, S. E., Jones, C., Eliasziw, M., Ickert, C., Estabrooks, C. A., & Wagg, A. (2018) · Healthcare policy · doi:10.12927/hcpol.2018.25549 · Cited by 8
“1994); Changes in Health, EndStage Disease, Signs, and Symptoms scale (CHESS), a six-level scale ranging from no health instability to very high health instability (Hirdes et al. 2003); and the ADLs longform scale, a 28-level scale ranging from total independence to total dependence in ADLs (Morris et al.”
BackgroundMethodUsing a self-directed workbook to support advance care planning with long term care home residents
Sussman, T., Kaasalainen, S., Lawrence, J., Hunter, P. V., Bourgeois-Guérin, V., & Howard, M. (2021) · BMC Palliative Care · doi:10.1186/s12904-021-00815-1 · Cited by 8
Mowbray, F., Turcotte, L., Strum, R. P., de Wit, K., Griffith, L. E., Worster, A., Foroutan, F., Heckman, G. A., Hébert, P. C., Schumacher, C., et al. (2023) · Resuscitation · doi:10.1016/j.resuscitation.2023.109766 · Cited by 8
Metformin Safety Warnings and Diabetes Drug Prescribing Patterns for Older Nursing Home Residents
Zullo, A. R., Dore, D. D., Gutman, R., Mor, V., Álvarez, C. A., & Smith, R. J. (2017) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2017.05.020 · Cited by 8
“21) Stroke No 2,327/2,549 (78) 651/2,978 (22) Reference Reference Yes 739/802 (76) 230/969 (24) 1.”
InfluentialShaver, N., Lapenskie, J., Smith, G. A., Hsu, A. T., Liddy, C. E., & Tanuseputro, P. (2020) · Journal of Applied Gerontology · doi:10.1177/0733464819901255 · Cited by 8
“, 1994); and Changes in Health, End-Stage Disease, Signs, and Symptoms Scale (CHESS) score (Hirdes et al., 2003).”
BackgroundHospice Utilization Among Residents in Long-Term Care Facilities
Xiong, B., Freeman, S., Banner, D., & Spirgienė, L. (2020) · Journal of Palliative Care · doi:10.1177/0825859720907415 · Cited by 8
“This study found CHESS was a good predictor of hospice use in LTCFs, consistent with previous findings that CHESS was a strong predictor of death.(45) The predictive model developed in this study was superior than CHESS alone, as clinical needs were not the only determinants of hospice use.”
ResultUsing Machine Learning to Plan Rehabilitation for Home Care Clients: Beyond “Black-Box” Predictions
Zhu, M., Lu, C. Z., Armstrong, J. J., Poss, J. W., Hirdes, J. P., & Stolee, P. (2013) · Intelligent systems reference library · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-40017-9_9 · Cited by 8
Self-citationBenchmarking European Home Care Models for Older Persons on Societal Costs: The IBenC Study
van Lier, L. I., van der Roest, H. G., Garms-Homolová, V., Onder, G., Jónsson, P. V., Declercq, A., Hertogh, C. M. P. M., van Hout, H. P. J., & Bosmans, J. E. (2021) · Health Services Insights · doi:10.1177/11786329211022441 · Cited by 9
Bliss, D. Z., Gurvich, O. V., Savik, K., Eberly, L. E., Harms, S. L., Wyman, J. F., Mueller, C., Garrard, J. M., & Virnig, B. A. (2015) · Research in Nursing & Health · doi:10.1002/nur.21680 · Cited by 7
Freeman, S., Hirdes, J. P., Stolee, P., & Garcia, J. (2016) · Journal of Social Work in End-of-Life & Palliative Care · doi:10.1080/15524256.2016.1156604 · Cited by 7
Self-citationCare Needs and Health Care Burden of Persons With Epilepsy Receiving Home Care Services
Kehyayan, V., & Hirdes, J. P. (2018) · Home Health Care Management & Practice · doi:10.1177/1084822318806291 · Cited by 8
Self-citationMcArthur, C., Hillier, L. M., Ioannidis, G., Adachi, J. D., Giangregorio, L., Hirdes, J. P., & Παπαϊωάννου, Α. (2020) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2020.08.015 · Cited by 7
Self-citationMcArthur, C., Faller-Saunders, A., Turcotte, L., Sinn, C. J., Berg, K., Morris, J. N., & Hirdes, J. P. (2022) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2022.06.015 · Cited by 7
Self-citationRacial and Ethnic Disparities in Time to Cure of Incontinence Present at Nursing Home Admission.
Bliss, D. Z., Gurvich, O. V., Savik, K., Eberly, L. E., Harms, S. L., & Wyman, J. F. (2014) · PubMed · Cited by 7
Mofina, A., Miller, J., Tranmer, J., Li, W., & Donnelly, C. (2023) · BMC Health Services Research · doi:10.1186/s12913-023-09116-0 · Cited by 6
Jester, D. J., Hyer, K., Molinari, V., Andel, R., & Rozek, E. K. (2018) · International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/gps.4934 · Cited by 6
McArthur, C., Ioannidis, G., Jantzi, M., Hillier, L. M., Adachi, J. D., Giangregorio, L., Hirdes, J. P., & Παπαϊωάννου, Α. (2020) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2020.08.023 · Cited by 6
Self-citationChai, Y., Luo, H., Yip, P. S. F., Perlman, C. M., & Hirdes, J. P. (2021) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2020.12.022 · Cited by 7
Self-citationFalls Risk in Long-Term Care Residents With Cognitive Impairment: Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic
Cheung, G., Beyene, K. A., Chan, A. H. Y., Drayton, B., Jamieson, H. A., Lyndon, M., Hikaka, J., Ma’u, E., Meehan, B., Walker, X. J., et al. (2023) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2023.11.006 · Cited by 6
Sanz, R. N., Martel, P. J., Bernal, V. S.-B., & Vela, E. C. (2006) · Anales de Medicina Interna · doi:10.4321/s0212-71992006001100005 · Cited by 6
Post-acute stroke patient outcomes in Ontario, Canada complex continuing care settings
Tourangeau, A. E., Squires, M., Wodchis, W. P., McGilton, K. S., Teare, G. F., & Widger, K. A. (2010) · Disability and Rehabilitation · doi:10.3109/09638288.2010.486466 · Cited by 6
Self-citationMoga, D. C., Wu, Q., Doshi, P. A., & Goodin, A. J. (2017) · BMC Geriatrics · doi:10.1186/s12877-017-0690-2 · Cited by 6
“Specifically, we used imputation techniques to assign that variable ’ s mode to the missing value (e.g., if a patient record had a missing CHESS score, the mode of the CHESS variable was imputed for that patient record).”
Influential
Metadata
- Authors
- Hirdes, J. P., Frijters, D. H., & Teare, G. F.
- Affiliations
- University of Waterloo (CA)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- University of Toronto (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Hirdes, John P.
- Venue
- Journal of the American Geriatrics Society
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2003-01
- Volume
- 51
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 96-100
- ISSN
- 0002-8614 (ISSN-L)
- 1532-5415
- OpenAlex
- W1997637125
- Cited by
- 477
- References
- 20
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 32 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 24 · 2020: 41 · 2019: 23 · 2018: 24 · 2017: 26 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 23 · 2014: 28 · 2013: 26 · 2012: 17
- FWCI
- 4.44
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of the American Geriatrics Society (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Geriatrics and Gerontology › Frailty in Older Adults
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Palliative Care and End-of-Life Issues
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Geriatrics and Gerontology › Geriatric Care and Nursing Homes
- Keywords
- mortality prediction, frailty, institutionalized elderly, end-stage disease, symptoms and signs, activities of daily living, do-not-resuscitate orders, pain, nursing assessment
- MeSH terms
- Activities of Daily Living, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Canada, Chronic Disease, Female, Humans, Institutionalization, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Severity of Illness Index, Geriatric Assessment, Comorbidity, Proportional Hazards Models, Frail Elderly
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