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Evaluating meta-analytic methods to detect selective reporting in the presence of dependent effect sizes.
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
Selective reporting of results based on their statistical significance threatens the validity of meta-analytic findings. A variety of techniques for detecting selective reporting, publication bias, or small-study effects are available and are routinely used in research syntheses. Most such techniques are univariate, in that they assume that each study contributes a single, independent effect size estimate to the meta-analysis. In practice, however, studies often contribute multiple, statistically dependent effect size estimates, such as for multiple measures of a common outcome construct. Many methods are available for meta-analyzing dependent effect sizes, but methods for investigating selective reporting while also handling effect size dependencies require further investigation. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluate three available univariate tests for small-study effects or selective reporting, including the trim and fill test, Egger's regression test, and a likelihood ratio test from a three-parameter selection model (3PSM), when dependence is ignored or handled using ad hoc techniques. We also examine two variants of Egger's regression test that incorporate robust variance estimation (RVE) or multilevel meta-analysis (MLMA) to handle dependence. Simulation results demonstrate that ignoring dependence inflates Type I error rates for all univariate tests. Variants of Egger's regression maintain Type I error rates when dependent effect sizes are sampled or handled using RVE or MLMA. The 3PSM likelihood ratio test does not fully control Type I error rates. With the exception of the 3PSM, all methods have limited power to detect selection bias except under strong selection for statistically significant effects. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).
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“Publication bias was assessed both visually, using funnel plots, and statistically, using a multilevel Egger-type regression test, in which the standard error of the effect size was included as a predictor in a mixed-effects model (39).”
From Carbohydrate ingestion during prolonged exercise and net skeletal muscle glycogen utilization: A meta-analysis. (2026) · cites this paper as [39]
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“When effect sizes are not independent of one another, Egger–MLMA regression is more effective in controlling for Type I error compared to the traditional Egger test (Rodgers & Pustejovsky, 2021).”
Association between childhood maltreatment and empathy: A three-level meta-analytic review
Meng, X., Yu, D., Yijing, C. H. E. N., Zhang, L., & Fu, X. (2023) · Acta Psychologica Sinica · doi:10.3724/sp.j.1041.2023.01285 · Cited by 16
A multi-level meta-analytic review of attachment and fears of compassion
Varley, D., Sherwell, C. S., Fu, M., & Kirby, J. N. (2023) · Personality and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/j.paid.2023.112477 · Cited by 18
The effect of mere presence of smartphone on cognitive functions: A four-level meta-analysis.
Hartanto, A., Lua, V. Y. Q., Kasturiratna, K. T. A. S., Koh, P. S., Tng, G. Y. Q., Kaur, M., Quek, F. Y. X., Chia, J. L., & Majeed, N. M. (2024) · Technology Mind and Behavior · doi:10.1037/tmb0000123 · Cited by 20
LaSota, R. R., Polanin, J. R., Perna, L. W., Rodgers, M. A., & Austin, M. J. (2024) · Review of Educational Research · doi:10.3102/00346543241239955 · Cited by 15
“To address this concern, we conducted the Egger Sandwich test (Rodgers & Pustejovsky, 2020), a variant of the classic Egger’s regression that accounts for dependent effect sizes using the robust variance estimation technique.”
Self-citationHolgado, D., Sanabria, D., Vadillo, M. A., & Román-Caballero, R. (2024) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2024.105821 · Cited by 17
“The logic of PET-PEESE can be extended to multilevel models (Fern ´ andez-Castilla et al., 2021; Friese et al., 2017; Rodgers and Pustejovsky, 2020).”
MethodYan, S., Liu, Z., Peng, P., & Yan, N. (2024) · Educational Psychology Review · doi:10.1007/s10648-024-09955-1 · Cited by 19
“Furthermore, the three-level funnel plot, Egger’s regression test, and the trim-and-fill method are commonly used to identify and address publication bias in three-level meta-analysis (Rodgers & Pustejovsky, 2021).”
Cho, M., & Cho, Y. H. (2021) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph18168524 · Cited by 18
Cipriano, C., Strambler, M. J., Naples, L. H., Ha, C., Kirk, M., Wood, M., Sehgal, K., Zieher, A. K., Eveleigh, A., McCarthy, M. F., et al. (2023) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/mk35u · Cited by 15
Gender and Accuracy in Decoding Affect Cues: A Meta-Analysis
Hall, J. A., Gunnery, S. D., & Schlegel, K. (2025) · Journal of Intelligence · doi:10.3390/jintelligence13030038 · Cited by 17
“Given that selection models cannot currently account for nested data structures, this analysis was conducted on a dataset where effect sizes were aggregated within the 1011 studies, following the recommendations of Rodgers and Pustejovsky (2021).”
Do Pedagogical Agents Enhance Student Motivation? Unraveling the Evidence Through Meta-Analysis
Gladstone, J. R., Schroeder, N. L., Heidig, S., Zhang, S., Palaguachi, C., & Pitera, M. (2025) · Educational Psychology Review · doi:10.1007/s10648-025-10050-2 · Cited by 17
“Conventional approaches to quantifying publication bias do not function well in 3LMA models (Rodgers & Pustejovsky, 2021).”
P ‐hacking in meta‐analyses: A formalization and new meta‐analytic methods
Mathur, M. B. (2024) · Research Synthesis Methods · doi:10.1002/jrsm.1701 · Cited by 25
“There has been substantial recent progress toward considering SAS in the context of multiple estimates per study 9,39,65 ; can these conceptual and technical advances be parlayed into methods that additionally accommodate SWS?”
BackgroundCorporal punishment and violent behavior spectrum: a meta-analytic review
Pan, Q., Chen, S.-R., & Qu, Y. (2024) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1323784 · Cited by 13
“Therefore, we employed the latest MAML Egger’s test, which uses the standard error of the effect size as a function (Rodgers and Pustejovsky, 2020).”
MethodGenetic and environment influences on childhood victimization: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Dahoun, T., Peel, A. J., Baldwin, J. R., Coleman, O., Lewis, S. J., Wertz, J., Rijsdijk, F. V., & Danese, A. (2024) · Molecular Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/s41380-024-02868-z · Cited by 12
“We identi fi ed k = 21 studies [”
Spurious Precision in Meta-Analysis of Observational ResearchPreprint
Iršová, Z., Bom, P. R. D., Havránek, T., & Rachinger, H. J. (2023) · MetArXiv (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.31222/osf.io/3qp2w · Cited by 11
Do socializers’ mindset beliefs matter for student mindset and achievement? A meta-analysis
Fong, C. J., Muenks, K. M., Fathi, Z., Adelugba, S. F., O'Grady, M., Lin, S., & Goldstein, M. G. (2025) · Learning and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/j.lindif.2025.102709 · Cited by 16
No meta-analytical effect of economic inequality on well-being or mental health
Sommet, N., Fillon, A. A., Rudmann, O., Cunha, A. R. S., & Ehsan, A. (2025) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09797-z · Cited by 19
“To accommodate the multivariate data structure, we performed an Egger–MLMA regression 17 .”
Pak, N. S., Bailey, K. M., Ledford, J. R., & Kaiser, A. P. (2023) · American Journal of Speech-Language Pathology · doi:10.1044/2022_ajslp-22-00220 · Cited by 12
Mathur, M. B. (2023) · Research Synthesis Methods · doi:10.1002/jrsm.1667 · Cited by 13
“42,46,47 We adopt this model as well and explore its performance under model misspecification in an extensive simulation study (Section 5).”
MethodStephen, D. M., & Stahlschmidt, S. (2024) · Scientometrics · doi:10.1007/s11192-024-05006-2 · Cited by 12
“…we did not test for publication bias because the standard tests, such as Egger’s regression and Trim and Fill, have been found to have limited ability to detect publication bias in such cases and no suitable alternative is yet available (Assink & Wibbelink, 2016; Rodgers & Pustejovsky, 2021).”
Smokeless tobacco and periodontitis: A systematic review with meta‐analysis
Quadri, M. F. A., Kamel, A. M., Nayeem, M., John, T., Mohanan, A. T., Tartaglia, G. M., & Tadakamadla, S. K. (2024) · Journal of Periodontal Research · doi:10.1111/jre.13274 · Cited by 19
Metadata
- Authors
- Rodgers, M. A., & Pustejovsky, J. E.
- Affiliations
- The University of Texas at Austin (US)
- Venue
- Psychological Methods
- Published
- 2021-04
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 141-160
- ISSN
- 1082-989X (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1463
- OpenAlex
- W3043790905
- Cited by
- 492
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 111 · 2025: 111 · 2024: 95 · 2023: 72 · 2022: 61 · 2021: 34
- FWCI
- 26.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Psychological Methods (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- MetArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- MetArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Keywords
- selective reporting, publication bias, small-study effects, dependent effect sizes, robust variance estimation, multilevel meta-analysis, type I error rate
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