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Cited by 329HIV/AIDS Research and InterventionsMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsHIV/AIDS Impact and Responses

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The spread of HIV-1 in Africa: sexual contact patterns and the predicted demographic impact of AIDS

Anderson, R. M., May, R. M., Boily, M. C., Garnett, G. P., Rowley, J. T., May, R. M.·1991·Nature
DOI 10.1038/352581a0
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Abstract

The spread of HIV-1 in Africa is examined here in the light of recent information on the main epidemiological and behavioural determinants of transmission. Mathematical models incorporating demographic, epidemiological and behavioural processes are used to assess the potential demographic impact of the disease AIDS. These analyses highlight the significance of patterns of sexual behaviour, and in particular networks of sexual contact, on the predicted spread of infection. Current data reveal substantial variations in the degree of spread between and in countries, but new analyses support earlier predictions that in the worst-afflicted areas AIDS is likely to change population growth rates from positive to negative values in a few decades.

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Metadata

Authors
Anderson, R. M., May, R. M., Boily, M. C., Garnett, G. P., Rowley, J. T., & May, R. M.
Affiliations
University of London (GB)
ORCID
Venue
Nature
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
1991-08
Volume
352
Issue
6336
Pages
581-589
ISSN
  • 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
  • 1476-4687
DOI
10.1038/352581a0
OpenAlex
W2148154695
Cited by
329
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 7
FWCI
25.26
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations
  • Nature (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • DigitalGeorgetown (Georgetown University Library) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses
Keywords
HIV-1 transmission, AIDS, Africa, sexual networks, sexual behavior, demographic effects, population growth, epidemic modeling
MeSH terms
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, Africa, Blood Donors, Demography, Female, HIV Seropositivity, Humans, Maternal-Fetal Exchange, Mathematics, Models, Theoretical, Pregnancy, Sexual Behavior, HIV-1, HIV-2, Likelihood Functions

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