Cited by 797Ecosystem dynamics and resilienceBanking stability, regulation, efficiencySustainable Finance and Green Bonds

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Ecology for bankers

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May, Robert M., Levin, Simon A., Sugihara, George·2008·Nature

DOI 10.1038/451893a

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Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control
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Predation and spatial connectivity interact to shape ecosystem resilience to an ongoing regime shift
Olin, A. B., Bergström, U., Bodin, Ö., Sundblad, G., Eriksson, B. K., Erlandsson, M., Fredriksson, R., & Eklöf, J. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-45713-1 · Cited by 21
“Seemingly unrelated dynamicprocesses suchas ﬁ nancialcrises 1 , social revolts 2 , and power grid failures 3 can all be viewed as cascading shifts where an alternative state rapidly spreads through a system.”
Background
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Bellisario, B., Cerfolli, F., & Nascetti, G. (2010) · Ecological research · doi:10.1007/s11284-010-0711-5 · Cited by 22
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König, M., Tessone, C. J., & Zénou, Y. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1596004 · Cited by 23
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Moschoyiannis, S., Elia, N., Penn, A. S., Lloyd, D. J. B., & Knight, C. (2016) · Electronic Proceedings in Theoretical Computer Science · doi:10.4204/eptcs.220.4 · Cited by 20
Detecting critical transitions in the case of moderate or strong noise by binomial moments
Din, A., Liang, J., & Zhou, T. (2018) · Physical review. E · doi:10.1103/physreve.98.012114 · Cited by 20
Predicting the Lifetime of Dynamic Networks Experiencing Persistent Random Attacks
Boris Podobnik, A., Lipić, T., Horvatić, D., Majdandzic, A., Bishop, S. R., & Stanley, E. (2015) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep14286 · Cited by 20
Ecological Econophysics for Degrowth
Pueyo, S. (2014) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su6063431 · Cited by 21
Anticipating regime shifts in gene expression: The case of an autoactivating positive feedback loop
Sharma, Y., Dutta, P. S., & Gupta, A. K. (2016) · Physical review. E · doi:10.1103/physreve.93.032404 · Cited by 20
Spatiotemporal diffusion as early warning signal for critical transitions in spatial tumor-immune system with stochasticity
Ma, Z., Luo, Y., Zeng, C., & Zheng, B. (2022) · Physical Review Research · doi:10.1103/physrevresearch.4.023039 · Cited by 20
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Cohen, A. A., Leung, D. L., Legault, V., Gravel, D., Blanchet, F. G., Côté, A., Fülöp, T., Lee, J., Dufour, F., Liu, M., et al. (2022) · iScience · doi:10.1016/j.isci.2022.104385 · Cited by 19
Interpretable predictions of chaotic dynamical systems using dynamical system deep learning
Wang, M., & Li, J. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-53169-y · Cited by 20
“How to exploit the information hidden in the time series data and establish an effective prediction model to accurately predict the future as long as possible, is of great importance in many disciplines 7–9 .”
Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization
Spaiser, V., Juhola, S. K., Constantino, S. M., Guo, W., Watson, T., Sillmann, J., Craparo, A., Basel, A. M., Bruun, J. T., Krishnamurthy, P. K., et al. (2024) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024 · Cited by 28
Complexity in history: modelling the organisational demography of the British banking sector
Garnett, P., Mollan, S., & Bentley, R. A. (2015) · Business History · doi:10.1080/00076791.2014.977876 · Cited by 19
Critical transitions and perturbation growth directions
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Information authenticity, spreading willingness and credit risk contagion – A dual-layer network perspective
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Behavior of Early Warnings near the Critical Temperature in the Two-Dimensional Ising Model
Morales, I. O., Landa, E., Angeles, C. C., Toledo, J. C., Rivera, A. L., Mendoza-Temis, J., & Frank, A. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0130751 · Cited by 19
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Anand, K., Brennan, S., Gai, P., Kapadia, S., & Willison, M. (2011) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1789057 · Cited by 19
Diversification and Financial StabilityPreprint
Tasca, P., & Battiston, S. (2011) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1878596 · Cited by 19
“This effect is in line with the robust-yet-fragile property of “connected” networks (see e.g., May et al., 2008).”
Result
Remaking macroeconomic policy after the global financial crisis: a balance-sheet approach
Adam, C., & Vines, D. (2009) · Oxford Review of Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/oxrep/grq014 · Cited by 18
Human-Mobility Networks, Country Income, and Labor Productivity
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Data-driven identification of reliable sensor species to predict regime shifts in ecological networks
Ghadami, A., Chen, S., & Epureanu, B. I. (2020) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.200896 · Cited by 17
“Rapid degradation of vegetation cover [2], sudden collapse of global financial markets [3], failures in large-scale electric power transmission systems [4], abrupt climate change [5,6] and collapse of populations in ecosystems [7,8] are examples of such dramatic changes.”
Background
Estimating Tipping Points in Feedback-Driven Financial Networks
Kostanjčar, Z., Begušić, S., Stanley, E., & Boris Podobnik, A. (2016) · IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Signal Processing · doi:10.1109/jstsp.2016.2593099 · Cited by 17
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Shaw, W. T., & Schofield, M. (2012) · Quantitative Finance · doi:10.1080/14697688.2011.642810 · Cited by 17
“On the biological side, May et al. (2008) have observed the ‘‘common ground in analysing financial systems and ecosystems’’, and identify feedback mechanisms as one mechanism for causing catastrophic changes in the overall state of a system, with hidden linkages being another cause.”
Background
Dynamical evidence for causality between Northern Hemisphere annular mode and winter surface air temperature over Northeast Asia
Zhang, N., Wang, G., & Tsonis, A. A. (2018) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4317-x · Cited by 17
Review article: Hilbert problems for the climate sciences in the 21st century – 20 years later
Ghil, M. (2020) · Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics · doi:10.5194/npg-27-429-2020 · Cited by 6
Mapping Financial Literacy: Cognition and the Environment
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Fundamental and Real-World Challenges in EconomicsPreprint
Helbing, D., & Balietti, S. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1680262 · Cited by 17
“Concepts from evolutionary theory [114] and ecology [115] appear to be particularly promising [116].”
Background
Uncertainty and the dangers of monocultures in regulation, analysis, and practicePreprint
Bronk, R., & Jacoby, W. (2016) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 17
Financial stability and interacting networks of financial institutions and market infrastructures
León-Rincón, C. E., Berndsen, R. J., & Renneboog, L. D. R. (2014) · doi:10.32468/be.848 · Cited by 17
A Network Model of Financial System ResiliencePreprint
Anand, K., Gai, P., Kapadia, S., Brennan, S., & Willison, M. (2012) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2114295 · Cited by 17
Simple equations method applied to equations of nonlinear Schrödinger kind
Jordanov, I. P. (2022) · AIP conference proceedings · doi:10.1063/5.0084340 · Cited by 17
A comparative ethnoarchaeological analysis of corporate territorial ownership
Freeman, J., & Anderies, J. M. (2014) · Journal of Archaeological Science · doi:10.1016/j.jas.2014.11.037 · Cited by 16
“…punc-265 tuated rather than smooth and continuous (see e.g., Anderies et al., 2002;266 Janssen et al., 2003; Lade et al., 2013; Lever et al., 2014; May et al., 2008;267 Scheffer et al., 2012; Staver et al., 2011).268 In the Freeman and Anderies (2012) model, in the productive state, the269…”
Background
Population, Resources, and the Faith-Based Economy: the Situation in 2016
Ehrlich, P. R., & Ehrlich, A. H. (2016) · BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality · doi:10.1007/s41247-016-0003-y · Cited by 16
Regime shifts driven by dynamic correlations in gene expression noise
Sharma, Y., & Dutta, P. S. (2017) · Physical review. E · doi:10.1103/physreve.96.022409 · Cited by 16
“Such qualitative sudden changes are known as “regime shifts” have been found in a variety of ecological systems [3–5], climate systems [6], biological systems [7–10], financial markets [11], physical systems [12, 13], etc.”
Background
Disassembly of an epibenthic assemblage in a sustained severely hypoxic event in a northeast Pacific basin
Gasbarro, R., Chu, J. W. F., & Tunnicliffe, V. (2019) · Journal of Marine Systems · doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2019.103184 · Cited by 16
“The loss of highly connected and/or abundant ‘generalist’ species in the complex networks of ecosystems creates cascading effects and fragmentation (Albert and Jeong, 2000; May et al., 2008; Bascompte and Stouffer, 2009).”
Background
Critical Transition Analysis of the Deterministic Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation — A Flux-Based Network Approach
Viebahn, J., & Dijkstra, H. A. (2014) · International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos · doi:10.1142/s0218127414300079 · Cited by 13
Gene expression analysis reveals the tipping points during infant brain development for human and chimpanzee
Tang, H., Tang, Y. Z., Zeng, T., & Chen, L. (2020) · BMC Genomics · doi:10.1186/s12864-020-6465-8 · Cited by 15
“Recent research works show that there is a sudden change or a critical transition during time evolution of many dynamic systems, such as climate system [16, 17], ecosystem [18, 19], economics, global finance [20, 21] and biological system [14].”
Background
Embracing panarchy, building resilience and integrating adaptive management through a rebirth of the National Environmental Policy Act
Benson, M. H., & Garmestani, A. S. (2010) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.10.011 · Cited by 15
Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion
Boris Podobnik, A., Horvatić, D., Bertella, M. A., Li, F., Huang, X., & Li, B. (2014) · Europhysics Letters (EPL) · doi:10.1209/0295-5075/106/68003 · Cited by 15
Emergence of frustration signals systemic risk
Kuyyamudi, C., Chakrabarti, A. S., & Sitabhra Sinha, A. (2019) · Physical review. E · doi:10.1103/physreve.99.052306 · Cited by 15
Loan and nonloan flows in the Australian interbank network
Sokolov, A., Webster, R. L., Melatos, A., & Kieu, T. D. (2012) · Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2011.12.036 · Cited by 15
DARWINIAN SELECTION IN ASYMMETRIC WARFARE: THE NATURAL ADVANTAGE OF INSURGENTS AND TERRORISTS
JOHNSON, D. D. P. (2009) · Cited by 15
A theory of regime change on the Texas Coastal Plain
Freeman, J., Hard, R. J., & Mauldin, R. (2017) · Quaternary International · doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2016.12.029 · Cited by 15
Experimental investigation on preconditioned rate induced tipping in a thermoacoustic system
Tony, J., Subarna, S., Syamkumar, K. S., Sudha, G., Akshay, S., Gopalakrishnan, E. A., Surovyatkina, E. D., & Sujith, R. I. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-05814-y · Cited by 15
Potential for cascading impacts of environmental change and policy on indigenous culture
Yletyinen, J., Tylianakis, J. M., Stone, C., & Lyver, P. O. (2022) · AMBIO · doi:10.1007/s13280-021-01670-3 · Cited by 18
“…has been detected in diverse systems, such as food webs, natural resource harvesting systems, social networks and global anthropogenic networks (Albert et al. 2000; May et al. 2008; Dunne and Williams 2009; Stouffer and Bascompte 2011; Helbing 2013; Tsai et al. 2014; Rocha et al. 2018).”
Background
Can banks default overnight? Modelling endogenous contagion on the O/N interbank market
Smaga, P., Wiliński, M., Ochnicki, P., Arendarski, P., & Gubiec, T. (2018) · Quantitative Finance · doi:10.1080/14697688.2018.1438641 · Cited by 23
News Waves: Hard News, Soft News, Fake News, Rumors, News Wavetrains
Vitanov, N. K., Dimitrova, Z. I., & Vitanov, K. N. (2023) · Entropy · doi:10.3390/e26010005 · Cited by 14
Computing systemic risk using multiple behavioral and keystone networks: The emergence of a crisis in primate societies and banks
Hsieh, F., Jordà, Ò., Beisner, B. A., & McCowan, B. (2014) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.11.001 · Cited by 14
A Network-Based Dynamic Analysis in an Equity Stock Market
Eberhard, J. P., Lavín, J. F., & Montecinos-Pearce, A. A. (2017) · Complexity · doi:10.1155/2017/3979836 · Cited by 14
Emerging spectra characterization of catastrophic instabilities in complex systems
Chakraborti, A., Sharma, K., Pharasi, H. K., Bakar, K. S., Das, S., & Seligman, T. H. (2020) · New Journal of Physics · doi:10.1088/1367-2630/ab90d4 · Cited by 13
Threshold transitions in a regional urban system
García, J. H., Garmestani, A. S., & Karunanithi, A. T. (2011) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2010.12.015 · Cited by 14
“Strong interaction of components in complex systems (e.g., forest fires, epidemics) can lead to loss of resilience (May et al. 2008).”
Background
Skill (or lack thereof) of data-model fusion techniques to provide an early warning signal for an approaching tipping point
Singh, R., Quinn, J. D., Reed, P. M., & Keller, K. M. (2018) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0191768 · Cited by 14
Agent-Based Mapping of Credit Risk for Sustainable Microfinance
Lee, J.-H., Jusup, M., Boris Podobnik, A., & Iwasa, Y. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0126447 · Cited by 14
Extending Participatory Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping with a Control Nodes Methodology: A Case Study of the Development of a Bio-based Economy in the Humber Region, UK
Penn, A. S., Knight, C. J. K., Chalkias, G., Velenturf, A. P. M., & Lloyd, D. J. B. (2016) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-25053-3_9 · Cited by 13
The influence of risk attitude on credit risk contagion—Perspective of information dissemination
Qian, Q., Feng, H., & Gu, J. (2021) · Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2021.126226 · Cited by 13
Systemic Losses Due to Counterparty Risk in a Stylized Banking System
Birch, A., & Aste, T. (2014) · Journal of Statistical Physics · doi:10.1007/s10955-014-1040-9 · Cited by 13
Why preferring parametric forecasting to nonparametric methods?
Jabot, F. (2015) · Journal of Theoretical Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.07.038 · Cited by 13
Resilience of networks to environmental stress: From regular to random networks
Eom, Y.-H. (2018) · Physical review. E · doi:10.1103/physreve.97.042313 · Cited by 13
Detecting and Predicting Tipping Points
Peng, X., SMALL, M. P., Zhao, Y., & Moore, J. M. (2019) · International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos · doi:10.1142/s0218127419300222 · Cited by 13
Critical slowing as a biomarker for seizure susceptibilityPreprint
Maturana, M. I., Meisel, C., Dell, K. L., Karoly, P. J., D'Souza, W. J., Grayden, D. B., Burkitt, A. N., Jiruška, P., Kudláček, J., Hlinka, J., et al. (2019) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/689893 · Cited by 14
Disturbance ecology in human societies
Pausas, J. G., & Leverkus, A. B. (2023) · People and Nature · doi:10.1002/pan3.10471 · Cited by 14
“…and associated technical advances reduce the frequency or severity of some disturbances (and thus, they may become less predictable), but they also generate novel disturbances (e.g. nuclear accidents), some of them likely to generate systemic risks (virtual disturbances; May et al., 2008 ).”
Background
Trans-heteroclinic bifurcation: a novel type of catastrophic shift
Josep Sardanyés, A., Martínez, R., & Simó, C. (2018) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.171304 · Cited by 12
Navigating the landscape of multiplayer games
Omidshafiei, S., Tuyls, K., Czarnecki, W. M., Santos, F. C., Rowland, M., Connor, J. T., Hennes, D., Müller, P. F., Pérolat, J., Vylder, B. D., et al. (2020) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 12
A Dynamical Model with Time Delay for Risk Contagion
Aliano, M., Cananà, L., Cestari, G., & Ragni, S. (2023) · Mathematics · doi:10.3390/math11020425 · Cited by 12
Managing ecological thresholds of a risky commons
Sarkar, S. (2023) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.230969 · Cited by 12
“Management and sustainability of MS systems have received much attention in recent years [8,9] in response to financial market crash [10], climate change [11], and vegetation changes [12].”
Background
Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation
Zlatić, V., Gabbi, G., & Abraham, H. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0114928 · Cited by 13
“The typical value used in the paper is β = 10 although we experimented with values ranging from β 2 [4, 20].”
Method
Fluctuation of similarity to detect transitions between distinct dynamical regimes in short time series
Malik, N., Marwan, N., Zou, Y., Mucha, P. J., & Kurths, J. (2014) · Physical Review E · doi:10.1103/physreve.89.062908 · Cited by 12
Sketching a network portrait of the humber region
Penn, A. S., Jensen, P. D., Woodward, A., Basson, L., Schiller, F., & Druckman, A. (2014) · Complexity · doi:10.1002/cplx.21519 · Cited by 12
Credit networks and systemic risk of Chinese local financing platforms: Too central or too big to fail?
He, F., & Chen, X. (2016) · Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2016.05.032 · Cited by 12
The Empirics of Macroeconomic Networks: A Critical Review
Fagiolo, G. (2016) · Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-40803-3_7 · Cited by 12
Anomaly Detection in Clinical Data of Patients Undergoing Heart Surgery
Presbitero, A., Quax, R., Krzhizhanovskaya, V. V., & Sloot, P. M. A. (2017) · Procedia Computer Science · doi:10.1016/j.procs.2017.05.002 · Cited by 12
Self-Organization, Resilience and Robustness of Complex Systems Through an Application to Financial Market from an Agent-Based Approach
Lucas, I., Cotsaftis, M., & Bertelle, C. (2018) · International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos · doi:10.1142/s021812741850044x · Cited by 12
Connectivity and systemic risk in the Brazilian national payments system
Miranda, R. C. C., de Souza, S. R. S., Silva, T. C., & Tabak, B. M. (2014) · Journal of Complex Networks · doi:10.1093/comnet/cnu022 · Cited by 12
A Network Model of Super-Systemic Crises
Gai, P., & Kapadia, S. (2009) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 12
System resilience enhancement through modularization for large scale cyber systems
Tu, M., & Xiao, L. (2016) · IEEE/CIC International Conference on Communications in China (ICCC) · doi:10.1109/iccchinaw.2016.7586727 · Cited by 13
FateNet: an integration of dynamical systems and deep learning for cell fate prediction
Sadria, M., & Bury, T. M. (2024) · Bioinformatics · doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/btae525 · Cited by 13
“These transitions have been extensively studied in fields such as ecology, climate science, finance, and epidemiology (May et al. 2008, Jurczyk et al. 2017, Dakos et al. 2019, Drake et al. 2019, Dietz et al. 2021).”
Background
B-tipping points in plankton dynamics: Stochasticity and early warning signals
Chattopadhyay, S. N., & Gupta, A. K. (2024) · Physical review. E · doi:10.1103/physreve.110.064218 · Cited by 11
Critical slowing down close to a global bifurcation of a curve of quasi-neutral equilibria
Fontich, E., Guillamon, A., Lázaro, J. T., Alarcón, T., Vidiella, B., & Josep Sardanyés, A. (2021) · Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation · doi:10.1016/j.cnsns.2021.106032 · Cited by 11
Mean-field theory for double-well systems on degree-heterogeneous networks
Kundu, P., MacLaren, N. G., Kori, H., & Masuda, N. (2022) · Proceedings of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspa.2022.0350 · Cited by 11
“clear and turbid water [2], abrupt climate changes [3], epileptic seizures [4] and extensive crashes in financial markets [5].”
Background
Locating Order-Disorder Phase Transition in a Cardiac System
Ashikaga, H., & Asgari-Targhi, A. (2018) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-018-20109-6 · Cited by 11
The architecture of robustness
Levin, S. A. (2019) · Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · doi:10.4337/9781788115421.00010 · Cited by 10
“That has long been hypothesized for ecological communities (May, 1972), and it undoubtedly played a role in the financial collapse of a decade ago (May et al., 2008); it is what led to adoption of the concept of TCTF (too connected to fail), as opposed to TBTF (too big to fail), as a tool to identify financial institu…”
MethodSelf-citation
Uncertainty of Resilience in Complex Networks With Nonlinear Dynamics
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Universality of noise-induced resilience restoration in spatially-extended ecological systems
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Authors: May, R. M., Levin, S. A., & Sugihara, G.
Affiliations: University of Oxford (GB)
Princeton University (US)
ORCID: Levin, Simon A.
Sugihara, George
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2008-02
Volume: 451
Issue: 7181
Pages: 893-894
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/451893a
OpenAlex: W2011866841
Cited by: 797
References: 11
Citations by year: 2026: 21 · 2025: 45 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 34 · 2022: 54 · 2021: 46 · 2020: 59 · 2019: 43 · 2018: 48 · 2017: 54 · 2016: 55 · 2015: 58 · 2014: 48 · 2013: 44 · 2012: 49
FWCI: 29.40
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: Princeton University
University of Oxford
Office of the Dean for Research, Princeton University
University of California, San Diego
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Sustainable Finance and Green Bonds
Keywords: financial system, financial stability, financial crisis, ecosystems, ecological analogy, banking sector, system resilience
MeSH terms: Animals, Ecology, Economics, Risk Management, Ecosystem

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