Cited by 796Influenza Virus Research StudiesMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsViral Infections and Outbreaks Research

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 44 of the 44 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza

Open access

Mills, Christina E., Robins, James M., Lipsitch, Marc·2004·Nature

DOI 10.1038/nature03063PMC PMC7095078

Open this paper in CoChat — free account Open PDF

Abstract

The 1918 influenza pandemic killed 20-40 million people worldwide, and is seen as a worst-case scenario for pandemic planning. Like other pandemic influenza strains, the 1918 A/H1N1 strain spread extremely rapidly. A measure of transmissibility and of the stringency of control measures required to stop an epidemic is the reproductive number, which is the number of secondary cases produced by each primary case. Here we obtained an estimate of the reproductive number for 1918 influenza by fitting a deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model to pneumonia and influenza death epidemic curves from 45 US cities: the median value is less than three. The estimated proportion of the population with A/H1N1 immunity before September 1918 implies a median basic reproductive number of less than four. These results strongly suggest that the reproductive number for 1918 pandemic influenza is not large relative to many other infectious diseases. In theory, a similar novel influenza subtype could be controlled. But because influenza is frequently transmitted before a specific diagnosis is possible and there is a dearth of global antiviral and vaccine stores, aggressive transmission reducing measures will probably be required.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/nature03063

Cites

44 of 44 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control
(1992) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-117-2-174_4 · Cited by 7,819
Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control
Anderson, R. M., & May, R. M. (1991) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198545996.001.0001 · Cited by 6,179
Evolution and ecology of influenza A viruses
Webster, R. G., Bean, W. J., Gorman, O. T., Chambers, T. M., & Kawaoka, Y. (1992) · Microbiological Reviews · doi:10.1128/mr.56.1.152-179.1992 · Cited by 4,739
Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Lipsitch, M., Cohen, T., Cooper, B. S., Robins, J. M., Ma, S., James, L., Gopalakrishna, G., Chew, S. K., Tan, C. C., Samore, M. H., et al. (2003) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1086616 · Cited by 1,485
Self-citation
Different Epidemic Curves for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Reveal Similar Impacts of Control Measures
Wallinga, J. (2004) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwh255 · Cited by 1,214
Transmission Dynamics of the Etiological Agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of Public Health Interventions
Riley, S., Fraser, C., Donnelly, C. A., Ghani, A. C., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Hedley, A. J., Leung, G. M., Ho, L., Lam, T.-H., Thach, T., et al. (2003) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1086478 · Cited by 1,152
Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable
Fraser, C., Riley, S., Anderson, R. M., & Ferguson, N. M. (2004) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0307506101 · Cited by 1,144
Anthrax as a Biological Weapon, 2002
Inglesby, T. V., O’Toole, T., Henderson, D. A., Bartlett, J. G., Ascher, M. S., Eitzen, E. M., Friedlander, A. M., Gerberding, J. L., HAUER, J. M., Hughes, J. M., et al. (2002) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.287.17.2236 · Cited by 1,023
The Sverdlovsk Anthrax Outbreak of 1979
Meselson, M. S., Guillemin, J. H., Hugh‐Jones, M., Langmuir, A. D., Popova, I., Shelokov, A., & Yampolskaya, O. V. (1994) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.7973702 · Cited by 1,005
Bioterrorism-Related Inhalational Anthrax: The First 10 Cases Reported in the United States
Jernigan, J. A., Stephens, D. S., Ashford, D. A., Omeñaca, C., Topiel, M. S., Galbraith, M., Tapper, M. L., Fisk, T. L., Zaki, S. R., Popović, T., et al. (2001) · Emerging infectious diseases · doi:10.3201/eid0706.010604 · Cited by 995

Flagged first, then by citations

Show all 44 references

Research works printed but not linked: 3

Wolbach, S. B. Comments on the pathology and bacteriology of fatal influenza cases, as observed at Camp Devens, Mass. Johns Hopkins Hosp. Bull. 338, 104–109 (1919)
Klotz, O. Studies on Epidemic Influenza 207–293 (Pittsburgh Univ. School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, 1919)
Olson, D. R., Simonsen, L., Edelson, P. J. & Morse, S. S. 4th Int. Conf. on Emerging Infectious Diseases [Abstract] (CDC, Atlanta, 2004)

Sorted by citations

Items 501–600 of 795

The design of a cloud-based tracker platform based on system-of-systems service architecture
Chu, V. W., Wong, R. K., Chi, C., Zhou, W., & Ho, I. (2017) · Information Systems Frontiers · doi:10.1007/s10796-017-9768-9 · Cited by 11
Parental vaccination to reduce measles immunity gaps in Italy
Marziano, V., Poletti, P., Trentini, F., Melegaro, A., Ajelli, M., & Merler, S. (2019) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.44942 · Cited by 11
A Severe Seasonal Influenza Epidemic During 2017–2018 in China After the 2009 Pandemic Influenza: A Modeling Study
Fu, X., Zhou, Y., Wu, J., Liu, X., Ding, C., Huang, C., Deng, M., Shi, D., Wang, C., Xu, K., et al. (2019) · Infectious Microbes & Diseases · doi:10.1097/im9.0000000000000006 · Cited by 11
A Closer Look at the Avian Influenza Virus H7N9: A Calm before the Storm?
Nakhaie, M., Rukerd, M. R. Z., Shahpar, A., Pardeshenas, M., Khoshnazar, S. M., Khazaeli, M., Bashash, D., Nezhad, N. Z., & Charostad, J. (2024) · Journal of Medical Virology · doi:10.1002/jmv.70090 · Cited by 11
Commercialising public health during the 1918-1919 Spanish flu pandemic in Britain
Hagan, L. A. O. (2021) · Journal of Historical Research in Marketing · doi:10.1108/jhrm-12-2020-0058 · Cited by 10
Emerging Disease and the Evolution of Virulence: The Case of the 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic
Méthot, P., & Alizon, S. (2014) · History, philosophy and theory of the life sciences · doi:10.1007/978-94-017-8887-8_5 · Cited by 10
Modeling Strategies for Containing an Invading Infection
ROBERTS, M. G. (2006) · Mathematical Population Studies · doi:10.1080/08898480600950473 · Cited by 10
The influence of changing host immunity on 1918–19 pandemic dynamics
Bolton, K. J., McCaw, J. M., McVernon, J., & Mathews, J. D. (2014) · Epidemics · doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.07.004 · Cited by 10
Development and Application of Synthetic Affinity Ligands for the Purification of Ferritin-Based Influenza Antigens
Jacob, S. I., Khogeer, B., Bampos, N., Sheppard, T. D., Schwartz, R. S., & Lowe, C. R. (2017) · Bioconjugate Chemistry · doi:10.1021/acs.bioconjchem.7b00253 · Cited by 10
Intermediate levels of vaccination coverage may minimize seasonal influenza outbreaks
Zarnitsyna, V. I., Bulusheva, I., Handel, A., Longini, I. M., Halloran, M. E., & Antia, R. (2018) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0199674 · Cited by 11
hybridModels: An R Package for the Stochastic Simulation of Disease Spreading in Dynamic Networks
Marques, F. S., Grisi-Filho, J. H. H., Silva, J. C. R., de Almeida, E. C., & Júnior, J. L. S. (2020) · Journal of Statistical Software · doi:10.18637/jss.v094.i06 · Cited by 10
Identification of Novel Influenza Polymerase PB2 Inhibitors Using a Cascade Docking Virtual Screening Approach
Zhao, L., Che, J., Zhang, Q., Li, Y., Guo, X., Chen, L., Li, H., Cao, R., & Li, X. (2020) · Molecules · doi:10.3390/molecules25225291 · Cited by 10
Early Characterization of the Severity and Transmissibility of Pandemic Influenza Using Clinical Episode Data from Multiple Populations
Riley, P., Ben-Nun, M., Linker, J. A., Cost, A. A. E., Sánchez, J. L., George, D. B., Bacon, D. P., & Riley, S. (2015) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004392 · Cited by 10
Simulation of influenza propagation: Model development, parameter estimation, and mitigation strategies
Andradóttir, S., Chiu, W., Goldsman, D. M., & Lee, M. L. (2014) · IIE Transactions on Healthcare Systems Engineering · doi:10.1080/19488300.2014.880093 · Cited by 8
Circulating Viruses Associated With Severe Complicated Enterovirus Infection in Taiwan
Wang, Y., Cheng, H.-B., Chen, H.-H., Liu, C., Chou, C.-H., & Sung, F. (2010) · The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal · doi:10.1097/inf.0b013e3181c2a1d2 · Cited by 10
Influenza virus A (H5N1): a pandemic risk?
Babakir‐Mina, M., Balestra, E., Perno, C. F., & Aquaro, S. (2007) · PubMed · Cited by 10
Early COVID-19 Interventions Failed to Replicate 1918 St. Louis vs. Philadelphia Outcomes in the United States
Jalali, A. M., Peterson, B. M., & Galbadage, T. (2020) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2020.579559 · Cited by 10
Using the Pillars of Infection Prevention to Build an Effective Program for Reducing the Transmission of Emerging and Reemerging Infections
Branch‐Elliman, W., Price, C. S., Bessesen, M. T., & Perl, T. M. (2015) · Current Environmental Health Reports · doi:10.1007/s40572-015-0059-7 · Cited by 10
Analysis of meningitis model: A case study of northern Nigeria
Baba, I. A., Olamilekan, L. I., Yusuf, A., & Bǎleanu, D. (2020) · AIMS bioengineering · doi:10.3934/bioeng.2020016 · Cited by 10
Models of epidemics: how contact characteristics shape the spread of infectious diseases
Smieszek, T. (2010) · Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) · doi:10.3929/ethz-a-006109956 · Cited by 10
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
Peiris, M. J. S., Guan, Y., Poon, L. L. M., Cheng, V. C., Nicholls, J. M., & Yuen, K.-Y. (2008) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-012374410-4.00780-9 · Cited by 23
A cost-effectiveness analysis of reduced viral transmission with baloxavir marboxil versus oseltamivir or no treatment for seasonal and pandemic influenza management in the United Kingdom
Kommandantvold, S. A., Lemenuel‐Diot, A., Skedgel, C. D., Pitman, R., Rouse, P., Zaraket, H., Zhou, H., & Zumofen, M.-H. B. (2024) · Expert Review of Pharmacoeconomics & Outcomes Research · doi:10.1080/14737167.2024.2365421 · Cited by 9
History through the eyes of a pandemic
Graversen, V. K., Hamichi, S. E., Gold, A. S., & Murray, T. G. (2020) · Current Opinion in Ophthalmology · doi:10.1097/icu.0000000000000711 · Cited by 9
IoT and cloud-based COVID-19 risk of infection prediction using hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy set
Tyagi, N. K., & Tyagi, K. (2024) · Soft Computing · doi:10.1007/s00500-023-09548-0 · Cited by 9
Transmissibility of the 1918 pandemic influenza in Montreal and Winnipeg of Canada
Zhang, S., Yan, P., Winchester, B., & Wang, J. (2009) · Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses · doi:10.1111/j.1750-2659.2009.00117.x · Cited by 9
Measuring the uncertainties of pandemic influenza
Fair, J. M., Powell, D. R., LeClaire, R. J., Moore, L. M., Wilson, M. L., Dauelsberg, L. R., Samsa, M. E., Deland, S. M., Hirsch, G. B., & Bush, B. (2012) · International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management · doi:10.1504/ijram.2012.047550 · Cited by 9
Transmissibility of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, subtype H5N1 in domestic poultry: a spatio-temporal estimation at the global scale
Zhang, Z., Chen, D., Ward, M. P., & Jiang, Q. (2012) · Geospatial health · doi:10.4081/gh.2012.112 · Cited by 9
A SpatioTemporal Model for Influenza
Edlund, S. B., Bromberg, M., Chodick, G., Douglas, J. V., Ford, D. A., Kaufman, Z., Lessler, J., Marom, R., Mesika, Y., Ram, R., et al. (2009) · eJournal of health informatics · Cited by 9
Using cultural, historical, and epidemiological data to inform, calibrate, and verify model structures in agent-based simulations
Sattenspiel, L., Dimka, J., & Orbann, C. (2019) · Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering · doi:10.3934/mbe.2019152 · Cited by 10
A theta-scheme approximation of basic reproduction number for an age-structured epidemic system in a finite horizon
Guo, W., Ye, M., Li, X., Meyer‐Baese, A., & Zhang, Q. (2019) · Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering · doi:10.3934/mbe.2019204 · Cited by 9
Analyzing the transmission of SVCV among zebrafish populations by compartment mathematical modeling
Pan, J., Qin, W., Chen, Z., Xiao, J., Chang, H., He, K., & Feng, H. (2022) · Aquaculture · doi:10.1016/j.aquaculture.2022.739076 · Cited by 9
Can informal social distancing interventions minimize demand for antiviral treatment during a severe pandemic?
Greer, A. L. (2013) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/1471-2458-13-669 · Cited by 9
Design and Analysis of a Prediction System About Influenza-Like Illness From the Latent Temporal and Spatial Information
Guo, X., Xiong, N. N., Wang, H., & Ren, J. (2021) · IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics Systems · doi:10.1109/tsmc.2020.3048946 · Cited by 9
Microblog Topic Contagiousness Measurement and Emerging Outbreak Monitoring
Chu, V. W., Wong, R. K., Chen, F., & Chi, C. (2014) · ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM) · doi:10.1145/2661829.2662014 · Cited by 8
Effectiveness of Contact Tracing Using KNN for COVID-19
Venkatasen, M., Mathivanan, S. K., Mani, P., Jayagopal, P., Thanapal, P., Somanathan, M. S., Upendra Babu, K., & Elangovan, D. (2021) · Journal of Mobile Multimedia · doi:10.13052/jmm1550-4646.17415 · Cited by 8
Probabilistic approximation of effective reproduction number of COVID-19 using daily death statistics
Na, J., Tibebu, H., Silva, D., KONDOZ, A. M., & Caine, M. P. (2020) · Chaos Solitons & Fractals · doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110181 · Cited by 8
Multimodeling approach to evaluating the efficacy of layering pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza pandemics
Prasad, P. V., Steele, M. K., Reed, C., Ancel, L. W., Du, Z., Pasco, R. F., Alfaro-Murillo, J. A., Lewis, B. L., Venkatramanan, S., Schlitt, J. T., et al. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2300590120 · Cited by 8
The Model Repository of the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study
Cooley, P. C., Roberts, D. J., Bakalov, V., Bikmal, S., Cantor, S., Costandine, T., Ganapathi, L., Golla, B. J., Grubbs, G., Hollingsworth, C. R., et al. (2008) · IEEE Transactions on Information Technology in Biomedicine · doi:10.1109/titb.2007.910354 · Cited by 8
New global viral threats
Erdem, H., & Ünal, S. (2015) · Saudi Medical Journal · doi:10.15537/smj.2015.4.10089 · Cited by 8
Aryl and Arylalkyl Substituted 3‐Hydroxypyridin‐2(1H)‐ones: Synthesis and Evaluation as Inhibitors of Influenza A Endonuclease
Sagong, H.-Y., Bauman, J. D., Nogales, A., Martínez‐Sobrido, L., Arnold, E., & LaVoie, E. J. (2019) · ChemMedChem · doi:10.1002/cmdc.201900084 · Cited by 8
Diffusion of Covid-19 in the Northern Metropolis in Northeast Brazil: territorial dynamics and risks associated with Social Vulnerability
de Paula, D. P., de Medeiros, D. H. M., Barros, E. L., Guerra, R. G. P., Santos, J. D. O., de Lima, J. S. Q., & Monteiro, R. M. L. (2020) · Sociedade & natureza · doi:10.14393/sn-v32-2020-56098 · Cited by 8
Predicting Self-Initiated Preventive Behavior Against Epidemics with an Agent-Based Relative Agreement Model
Mao, L. (2015) · Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation · doi:10.18564/jasss.2892 · Cited by 8
La amenaza de una pandemia humana por gripe aviar
Vaqué, J. (2006) · Medicina Clínica · doi:10.1157/13084540 · Cited by 8
Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the 1918–19 pandemic influenza in Florence, Italy
Rizzo, C., Ajelli, M., Merler, S., Pugliese, A., Barbetta, I., Salmaso, S., & Manfredi, P. (2011) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.02.049 · Cited by 8
Pandemic lessons from Iceland
Dowell, S. F., & Bresee, J. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0711535105 · Cited by 7
Childhood Vaccine Exemptions: A Broader Perspective Is Required
Byington, C. L., Clayton, E. W., & Edwards, K. M. (2016) · PEDIATRICS · doi:10.1542/peds.2016-0189 · Cited by 7
Importance of 1918 virus reconstruction to current assessments of pandemic risk
Belser, J. A., Maines, T. R., & Tumpey, T. M. (2018) · Virology · doi:10.1016/j.virol.2018.08.009 · Cited by 8
Case Studies in Drug Discovery
Blass, B. E. (2015) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-411508-8.00013-x · Cited by 8
Global dynamics of a two-strain flu model with a single vaccination and general incidence rate
Nic‐May, A. J., Facultad de Matemáticas, U. A. D. Y., & Avila-Vales, E. J. (2020) · Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering · doi:10.3934/mbe.2020400 · Cited by 7
Network effects in influenza spread: The impact of mobility and socio-economic factors
Burris, C., Nikolaev, A. G., Zhong, S., & Bian, L. (2021) · Socio-Economic Planning Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.seps.2021.101081 · Cited by 7
Predictibilidad a corto plazo del número de casos de la influenza pandémica AH1N1 basada en modelos determinísticos
Canals, M. (2010) · Revista chilena de infectología · doi:10.4067/s0716-10182010000200003 · Cited by 7
Cost-effectiveness of workplace closure and travel restriction for mitigating influenza outbreaks
Mao, L. (2013) · ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on the Use of GIS in Public Health (HealthGIS) · doi:10.1145/2535708.2535709 · Cited by 7
A perspective on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Mexico
Acuña-Soto, R., Castaňeda-Davila, L., & Chowell, G. (2011) · Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering · doi:10.3934/mbe.2011.8.223 · Cited by 8
Accounting for cross-immunity can improve forecast accuracy during influenza epidemics
Sachak-Patwa, R., Byrne, H. M., & Thompson, R. N. (2020) · Epidemics · doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100432 · Cited by 7
Impact of Preventive Responses to Epidemics in Rural Regions
Schumm, P., Schumm, W. R., & Scoglio, C. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0059028 · Cited by 7
Assessing the use of antiviral treatment to control influenza
Krämer, S., & Bansal, S. (2014) · Epidemiology and Infection · doi:10.1017/s0950268814002520 · Cited by 7
Transmission of influenza A in human beings – Authors' reply
Gardam, M. A., & Lemieux, C. (2007) · The Lancet Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(07)70271-2 · Cited by 7
Postencephalitic Parkinsonism
Jellinger, K. A. (2011) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781444341256.ch19 · Cited by 7
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) mathematical models and disease parameters: a systematic review
Morgenstern, C., Rawson, T., Routledge, I., Kont, M., Imai-Eaton, N., Skarp, J., Doohan, P., McCain, K., Johnson, R., Unwin, H. J. T., et al. (2025) · The Lancet Microbe · doi:10.1016/j.lanmic.2025.101144 · Cited by 6
Pricing Pandemic Bonds under Hull–White & Stochastic Logistic Growth Model
Manathunga, V., & Deng, L. (2023) · Risks · doi:10.3390/risks11090155 · Cited by 6
A statistical method utilizing information of imported cases to estimate the transmissibility for an influenza pandemic
Chong, K. C., Zee, B. C.-Y., & Wang, M. H. (2017) · BMC Medical Research Methodology · doi:10.1186/s12874-017-0300-1 · Cited by 6
Retrospective modelling of the disease and mortality burden of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Zurich, Switzerland
Ziegler, E., Matthes, K. L., Middelkamp, P. W., Schuenemann, V. J., Althaus, C. L., Rühli, F. J., & Staub, K. (2025) · Epidemics · doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2025.100813 · Cited by 6
Timeliness of 2009 H1N1 vaccine coverage in a low-income pediatric and adolescent population
Stockwell, M. S., Andres, R., Hofstetter, A. M., Natarajan, K., & Vawdrey, D. K. (2011) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.03.062 · Cited by 6
Global Stability Analysis of HIV+ Model
Saad, F. T., Şanlıdağ, T., Hınçal, E., Sayan, M., Baba, I. A., & Kaymakamzade, B. (2018) · Advances in intelligent systems and computing · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-04164-9_109 · Cited by 6
The Covid-19 outbreak, a Failure of Social Protection System: A Policy Perspective of Energy and Economic Recovery
Nosheen, F., Ahmad, U. S., Anjum, S., & Kouser, R. (2021) · Review of Economics and Development Studies · doi:10.47067/reads.v7i2.348 · Cited by 6
MC-NN: An End-to-End Multi-Channel Neural Network Approach for Predicting Influenza A Virus Hosts and Antigenic Types
Xu, Y., & Wojtczak, D. (2023) · SN Computer Science · doi:10.1007/s42979-023-01839-5 · Cited by 8
A novel data augmentation approach for influenza A subtype prediction based on HA proteins
Sohrabi, M. A., Zare‐Mirakabad, F., Ghidary, S. S., Saadat, M., & Sadegh‐Zadeh, S. (2024) · Computers in Biology and Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.compbiomed.2024.108316 · Cited by 6
Pandemic Influenza and Health System Resource Gaps in Bali
Adisasmito, W. B. B., Hunter, B. M., Krumkamp, R., Latief, K., Rudge, J. W., Hanvoravongchai, P., & Coker, R. J. (2011) · Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health · doi:10.1177/1010539511421365 · Cited by 6
Impact of seasonal influenza vaccination in the presence of vaccine interference
Shim, E., Smith, K. J., Nowalk, M. P., Raviotta, J. M., Brown, S. T., DePasse, J. V., & Zimmerman, R. K. (2018) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.12.067 · Cited by 6
Cybersecurity Challenges during Pandemic in Smart Cities
Himdi, H., Ishaque, M., & Ahmed, J. (2021) · doi:10.1109/indiacom51348.2021.00079 · Cited by 6
Die Grippe-Pandemie 1918–20 in der medizinischen Debatte
Witte, W. (2006) · Berichte zur Wissenschaftsgeschichte · doi:10.1002/bewi.200501184 · Cited by 6
Estimation of the net reproductive number of COVID-19 in Iran.
Moradi, Y., & Eshrati, B. (2020) · PubMed Central · doi:10.34171/mjiri.34.34 · Cited by 6
Multi-Species Influenza Models with Recombination
Coburn, B. J. (2009) · Cited by 6
Challenges Based on Antiplasmodial and Antiviral Activities of 7‐Chloro‐4‐aminoquinoline Derivatives
Mizuta, S., Mosaddeque, F., Tun, M. M. N., Teklemichael, A. A., Taniguchi, M., Hosokawa, M., Yamaguchi, T., Makau, J. N., Huy, N. T., Mizukami, S., et al. (2023) · ChemMedChem · doi:10.1002/cmdc.202200586 · Cited by 5
An ancient influenza genome from Switzerland allows deeper insights into host adaptation during the 1918 flu pandemic in Europe
Urban, C., Vrancken, B., Patrono, L. V., Düx, A., Vu, M. L., Matthes, K. L., Burkhard‐Koren, N. M., Widulin, N., Schnalke, T., Carraro, S., et al. (2025) · BMC Biology · doi:10.1186/s12915-025-02282-z · Cited by 5
Toxic Stress Affecting Families and Children during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Global Mental Health Crisis and an Emerging International Health Security Threat
Czulada, L., Kover, K. M., Gracias, G. M., Kumar, K.-N., Desai, S., Stawicki, S. P., Costello, K., & Erickson-Parsons, L. A. (2022) · IntechOpen eBooks · doi:10.5772/intechopen.104991 · Cited by 5
Increased genetic variation of A(H3N2) virus from influenza surveillance at the end of the 2016/2017 season for Shanghai port, China
Zhang, Z., Li, S., Zhu, X., Hou, J., Zhang, H., Zhao, B., & Tian, Z. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-19228-y · Cited by 5
Optimal vaccination policy and cost analysis for epidemic control in resource-limited settings
Yang, K., Wang, E., Zhou, Y., & Zhou, K. (2015) · Kybernetes · doi:10.1108/k-05-2014-0103 · Cited by 5
Community immunity
Fine, P., & Mulholland, K. (2008) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-1-4160-3611-1.50075-1 · Cited by 5
Asymptotic solutions of the SIR and SEIR models well above the epidemic threshold
Kozyreff, G. (2022) · IMA Journal of Applied Mathematics · doi:10.1093/imamat/hxac015 · Cited by 5
Coupling an individual adaptive‐decision model with a SIRV model of influenza vaccination reveals new insights for epidemic control
Yan, Q., Cheke, R., & Tang, S. (2022) · Statistics in Medicine · doi:10.1002/sim.9639 · Cited by 5
Anchoring the mean generation time in the SEIR to mitigate biases in ℜ 0 estimates due to uncertainty in the distribution of the epidemiological delays
Andrade, J., & Duggan, J. (2023) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.230515 · Cited by 5
Collaborative risk-based preparedness for pandemic influenza in Southeastern Virginia
Cahill, B. P., Collins, R. D., Jurko, R. C., Zivic, T. R., Crowther, K. G., & Haimes, Y. Y. (2008) · Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium · doi:10.1109/sieds.2008.4559733 · Cited by 5
Host contact structure is important for the recurrence of Influenza A
Jaramillo, J. M., Ma, J., den Driessche, P. V., & Yuan, S. (2018) · Journal of Mathematical Biology · doi:10.1007/s00285-018-1263-5 · Cited by 5
Correlates and Consequences of the 1918 Influenza in South Africa
de Kadt, D., Fourie, J., Greyling, J. C., Murard, E., & Norling, J. (2021) · South African Journal of Economics · doi:10.1111/saje.12285 · Cited by 5
Comparative Analysis of the Effectiveness of Three Immunization Strategies in Controlling Disease Outbreaks in Realistic Social Networks
Xu, Z., Zu, Z., Zheng, T., Zhang, W., Xu, Q., & Liu, J. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0095911 · Cited by 5
Emerging Service Orchestration Discovery and Monitoring
Chu, V. W., Wong, R. K., Fong, S. J., & Chi, C. (2015) · IEEE Transactions on Services Computing · doi:10.1109/tsc.2015.2511000 · Cited by 5
Human Behavior in Epidemic Modelling
Poletti, P. (2010) · Unitn-eprints PhD (University of Trento) · doi:10.15168/11572_367834 · Cited by 5
Cohort-based approach to understanding the roles of generation and serial intervals in shaping epidemiological dynamicsPreprint
Park, S. W., Sun, K., Champredon, D., Li, M., Bolker, B. M., Earn, D. J. D., Weitz, J. S., Grenfell, B. T., & Dushoff, J. G. (2020) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2020.06.04.20122713 · Cited by 5
A robust compartmental modeling framework for infectious disease monitoring and analysis via fractional differential equations
Chishtie, F., Drozd, J. J., Li, X., Benterki, A., & Valluri, S. R. (2026) · Epidemics · doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2026.100887 · Cited by 4
Influenza Pandemics
Ferreira, C., Doursout, M.-F. J., & Balingit, J. S. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-10035-2_6 · Cited by 3
Can Interactions between Timing of Vaccine-Altered Influenza Pandemic Waves and Seasonality in Influenza Complications Lead to More Severe Outcomes?
Dang, U. J., & Bauch, C. T. (2011) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0023580 · Cited by 4
Signal from noise?
Kern, S. E., & Jaron, D. (2009) · IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Magazine · doi:10.1109/memb.2009.934250 · Cited by 4
Ebola : too far or so close?
Torpiano, P., & Pace, D. (2014) · OAR@UM (University of Malta) · Cited by 4
Stochastic and spatio-temporal analysis of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea, 2015
Lee, H. (2019) · Infectious Disease Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.idm.2019.06.002 · Cited by 4
Modeling the Spread and Outbreak Dynamics of Avian Influenza (H5N1) Virus and Its Possible Control
Rao, V. S. H., & Upadhyay, R. K. (2013) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-9224-5_9 · Cited by 4
Preparing for pandemic response in the context of limited resources
Andrade, J., Beishuizen, B. H. H., Stein, M. L., Connolly, M. A., & Duggan, J. (2024) · System Dynamics Review · doi:10.1002/sdr.1775 · Cited by 5
Exploratory Study of Determinants of the Spread of COVID-19 before Shelter-in-Place Orders
Yoo, C., & Ross, C. L. (2021) · Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board · doi:10.1177/03611981211029647 · Cited by 4
Learning environment simulator: a tool for local decision makers and first responders
LeClaire, R. J., & Hirsch, G. B. (2009) · OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) · Cited by 4
CHASING R0: UNDERSTANDING THE EFFECTS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS ON THE BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER
Johnson, T., & Mikler, A. R. (2011) · Journal of Biological Systems · doi:10.1142/s0218339011003956 · Cited by 4

Authors: Mills, C. E., Robins, J. M., & Lipsitch, M.
Affiliations: Harvard University (US)
Corresponding author: Mills, Christina E.
ORCID: Robins, James M.
Lipsitch, Marc
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2004-12
Volume: 432
Issue: 7019
Pages: 904-906
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/nature03063
PMC: PMC7095078
OpenAlex: W2037844075
Cited by: 796
References: 44
Citations by year: 2026: 9 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 19 · 2023: 28 · 2022: 38 · 2021: 47 · 2020: 84 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 22 · 2017: 21 · 2016: 21 · 2015: 29 · 2014: 40 · 2013: 39 · 2012: 36
FWCI: 28.36
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Ellison Medical Foundation
National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
Fogarty International Center
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Influenza Virus Research Studies
Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
Keywords: 1918 influenza pandemic, H1N1 influenza, basic reproduction number, transmissibility, SEIR model, epidemic curve, pandemic preparedness
MeSH terms: Cities, Communicable Disease Control, Humans, Influenza, Human, Models, Biological, Probability, Time Factors, United States, Survival Analysis, History, 20th Century

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza

Abstract

Overview

Integrity signals

Verification

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Self-check

Citations

Cites

Cited by

Related

Metadata

Record

About these checks