Cited by 872Climate variability and modelsFlood Risk Assessment and ManagementMeteorological Phenomena and Simulations

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 30 of the 30 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000

Pall, Pardeep, Aina, Tolu, Stone, Dáithí A., Stott, Peter A., Nozawa, Toru, Hilberts, Arno G. J., Lohmann, Dag, Allen, Myles R.·2011·Nature

DOI 10.1038/nature09762

Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing. Yet climate models used to study the attribution problem typically do not resolve the weather systems associated with damaging events such as the UK floods of October and November 2000. Occurring during the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 1766, these floods damaged nearly 10,000 properties across that region, disrupted services severely, and caused insured losses estimated at £1.3 billion (refs 5, 6). Although the flooding was deemed a 'wake-up call' to the impacts of climate change at the time, such claims are typically supported only by general thermodynamic arguments that suggest increased extreme precipitation under global warming, but fail to account fully for the complex hydrometeorology associated with flooding. Here we present a multi-step, physically based 'probabilistic event attribution' framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Using publicly volunteered distributed computing, we generate several thousand seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model simulations of autumn 2000 weather, both under realistic conditions, and under conditions as they might have been had these greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting large-scale warming never occurred. Results are fed into a precipitation-runoff model that is used to simulate severe daily river runoff events in England and Wales (proxy indicators of flood events). The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/nature09762

Cites

30 of 30 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

We couldn’t retrieve this paper’s full text, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Marquis, M. C., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., Miller, H. L., & Chen, Z. (2007) · Cited by 23,398
The ERA‐40 re‐analysis
Uppala, S. M., Kållberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V. D. C., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. A., et al. (2005) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1256/qj.04.176 · Cited by 7,010
A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology / Un modèle à base physique de zone d’appel variable de l’hydrologie du bassin versant
BEVEN, K. J., & KIRKBY, M. J. (1979) · Hydrological Sciences Bulletin · doi:10.1080/02626667909491834 · Cited by 6,670
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A., & Allen, M. R. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature03089 · Cited by 1,735
Self-citation
TRENDS '90: A compendium of data on global change
Sepanski, R. J., Boden, T. A., Kanciruk, P., & Farrell, M. P. (1990) · doi:10.2172/6448374 · Cited by 1,586
The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change
O’Gorman, P. A., & Schneider, T. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0907610106 · Cited by 1,190
Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes
Lenderink, G., & van Meijgaard, E. (2008) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo262 · Cited by 1,072
A history of chemically and radiatively important gases in air deduced from ALE/GAGE/AGAGE
Prinn, R. G., Weiss, R. F., Fraser, P. J., Simmonds, P. G., Cunnold, D. M., Alyea, F. N., O’Doherty, S., Salameh, P. K., Miller, B. R., Huang, J., et al. (2000) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2000jd900141 · Cited by 722
Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios
Johns, T. C., Gregory, J. M., Ingram, W., Johnson, C. E., Jones, A. C., Lowe, J. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Roberts, D. L., Sexton, D. M. H., Stevenson, D. S., et al. (2003) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0296-y · Cited by 575
Liability for climate change
Allen, M. R. (2003) · Nature · doi:10.1038/421891a · Cited by 481
Self-citation

Flagged first, then by citations

Show all 30 references

Research works printed but not linked: 3

Pitt, M. The Pitt Review: Lessons Learned from the 2007 Floods (Cabinet Office, London, 2008)
Massacand, A. C. Forecasting of Extreme Seasonal Precipitation: Insight into the ECMWF Potential (Technical Memorandum No. 415, ECMWF, 2003)
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Report of the Conference of the Parties Serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol on its Second Session, held at Nairobi from 6 to17 November 2006 (FCCC/KP/CMP/2006/10, United Nations Office at Geneva, Geneva, 2007)

Sorted by citations

Items 301–400 of 872

Comparison of the use of alternative UKCP09 products for modelling the impacts of climate change on flood frequency
Kay, A. L., & Jones, R. (2012) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0395-z · Cited by 49
Intercomparison of different uncertainty sources in hydrological climate change projections for an alpine catchment (upper Clutha River, New Zealand)
Jobst, A. M., Kingston, D. G., Cullen, N. J., & Schmid, J. (2018) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-22-3125-2018 · Cited by 49
A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data: the case study of storm Alex 2020
Ginesta, M., Yiou, P., Messori, G., & Faranda, D. (2022) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06565-x · Cited by 48
Appropriate model use for predicting elevations and inundation extent for extreme flood events
Kvočka, D., Falconer, R. A., & Bray, M. (2015) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1926-0 · Cited by 48
Progress of feed-in tariff in Malaysia: A year after
Muhammad‐Sukki, F., Abu-Bakar, S. H., Munir, A. B., Yasin, S. H. M., Ramírez-Íñiguez, R., McMeekin, S. G., Stewart, B. G., & Rahim, R. A. (2014) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.044 · Cited by 48
Changes in temporal variability of precipitation over land due to anthropogenic forcings
Konapala, G., Mishra, A. K., & Leung, L.-Y. R. (2017) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa568a · Cited by 48
The Impact of Human‐Induced Climate Change on Regional Drought in the Horn of Africa
Marthews, T. R., Jones, R., Dadson, S., Otto, F. E. L., Mitchell, D., Guillod, B. P., & Allen, M. R. (2019) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2018jd030085 · Cited by 48
Self-citation
Improving flood hazard datasets using a low-complexity, probabilistic floodplain mapping approach
Diehl, R. M., Gourevitch, J. D., Drago, S., & Wemple, B. C. (2021) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0248683 · Cited by 48
Future Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Indicate the Dominance of Frequency Over Intensity: A Multi‐Model Assessment From CMIP6 Across India
Sarkar, S., & Maity, R. (2022) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2021jd035539 · Cited by 47
The future for global water assessment
Harding, R. J., Weedon, G. P., Lanen, H. A. J. V., & Clark, D. B. (2014) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.014 · Cited by 47
Trends in hourly rainfall statistics in the United States under a warming climate
Muschinski, T., & Katz, J. I. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1828 · Cited by 49
On regional dynamical downscaling for the assessment and projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Tasmania, Australia
White, C. J., McInnes, K. L., Cechet, R. P., Corney, S. P., Grose, M., Holz, G. K., Katzfey, J., & Bindoff, N. L. (2013) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1718-8 · Cited by 47
Concept of loss and damage of climate change – a new challenge for climate decision-making? A climate science perspective
Surminski, S., & López, A. M. (2014) · Climate and Development · doi:10.1080/17565529.2014.934770 · Cited by 47
Attribution of Forced Decadal Climate Change in Coupled and Uncoupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model Experiments
Dong, B., Sutton, R. T., Shaffrey, L., & Klingaman, N. P. (2017) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0578.1 · Cited by 47
Typology of extreme flood event leads to differential impacts on soil functioning
Sánchez‐Rodríguez, A. R., Hill, P. W., Chadwick, D. R., & Jones, D. L. (2018) · Soil Biology and Biochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2018.11.019 · Cited by 47
Global Change Impacts on the Future of Coastal Systems: Perverse Interactions Among Climate Change, Ecosystem Degradation, Energy Scarcity, and Population
Day, J. W., & Rybczyk, J. M. (2019) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-814003-1.00036-8 · Cited by 51
Combined dendro-documentary evidence of Central European hydroclimatic springtime extremes over the last millennium
Büntgen, U., Brázdil, R., Heußner, K., Hofmann, J., Kontic, R., Kyncl, T., Pfister, C., Chromá, K., & Tegel, W. (2011) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.10.010 · Cited by 49
Atmosfear: Communicating the Effects of Climate Change on Extreme Weather
Janković, V., & Schultz, D. M. (2016) · Weather Climate and Society · doi:10.1175/wcas-d-16-0030.1 · Cited by 47
NiO CaO materials as promising catalysts for hydrogen production through carbon dioxide capture and subsequent dry methane reforming
Cruz-Hernández, A., Mendoza-Nieto, J. A., & Pfeiffer, H. (2017) · Journal of Energy Chemistry · doi:10.1016/j.jechem.2017.07.002 · Cited by 46
Brazilian Journal of Development
(2021) · doi:10.34117/25258761 · Cited by 46
Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Alexander, L. V., King, A. D., Kew, S., Philip, S. Y., Barnes, C. R., Maraun, D., Stuart-Smith, R. F., Jézéquel, A., Bevacqua, E., et al. (2024) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2024.1455023 · Cited by 45
The response of warm-season precipitation extremes in China to global warming: an observational perspective from radiosonde measurements
Guo, J., Yan, Y., Chen, D., Lv, Y., Han, Y., Guo, X., Liu, L., Miao, Y., Chen, T., Nie, J., et al. (2020) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05216-3 · Cited by 45
Security of supply, energy spillage control and peaking options within a 100% renewable electricity system for New Zealand
Mason, I. G., Page, S., & Williamson, A. G. (2013) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.032 · Cited by 44
Stakeholder Perspectives on the Attribution of Extreme Weather Events: An Explorative Enquiry
Sippel, S., Walton, P., & Otto, F. E. L. (2015) · Weather Climate and Society · doi:10.1175/wcas-d-14-00045.1 · Cited by 44
Peak precipitation intensity in relation to atmospheric conditions and large‐scale forcing at midlatitudes
Loriaux, J. M., Lenderink, G., & Siebesma, A. P. (2016) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2015jd024274 · Cited by 44
A basis set for exploration of sensitivity to prescribed ocean conditions for estimating human contributions to extreme weather in CAM5.1-1degree
Stone, D. A., Risser, M. D., Angélil, O., Wehner, M. F., Cholia, S., Keen, N. D., Krishnan, H., O'Brien, T. A., & Collins, W. D. (2018) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2017.12.003 · Cited by 44
Self-citation
Climate-Related Disasters in Asia and the PacificPreprint
Thomas, V., Albert, J. R., & Perez, R. T. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2295783 · Cited by 46
Deep generative model super-resolves spatially correlated multiregional climate data
Oyama, N., Ishizaki, N. N., Koide, S., & Yoshida, H. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-32947-0 · Cited by 43
Large-Scale Controls on Extreme Precipitation
Loriaux, J. M., Lenderink, G., & Siebesma, A. P. (2016) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0381.1 · Cited by 43
Estimating the Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity as the Climate Changes
Wehner, M. F., Zarzycki, C. M., & Patricola, C. M. (2019) · Hurricane Risk/Hurricane risk · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_12 · Cited by 43
Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2018 Extreme Flooding over the Upper Yellow River Basin in China
Ji, P., Yuan, X., Jiao, Y., Wang, C., Han, S., & Shi, C. (2020) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-19-0105.1 · Cited by 43
Attributing Historical Changes in Probabilities of Record-Breaking Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events
Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., Mori, M., Mizuta, R., Stone, D. A., Yoshida, K., Arakawa, O., Ikeda, M., Takahashi, C., Arai, M., et al. (2016) · SOLA · doi:10.2151/sola.2016-045 · Cited by 45
Self-citation
Mississippi Delta Restoration and Protection: Shifting Baselines, Diminishing Resilience, and Growing Nonsustainability
Day, J. W., Colten, C. E., & Kemp, G. P. (2019) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-814003-1.00010-1 · Cited by 43
Revisiting the dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving the record-breaking January 2014 precipitation in the southern UK
Oueslati, B., Yiou, P., & Jézéquel, A. (2019) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-019-39306-y · Cited by 42
HOW TO DESIGN INFRASTRUCTURE CONTRACTS IN A WARMING WORLD: A CRITICAL APPRAISAL OF PUBLIC–PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS*
Martimort, D., & Straub, S. (2016) · International Economic Review · doi:10.1111/iere.12148 · Cited by 42
Representation of climate extreme indices in the ACCESS1.3b coupled atmosphere–land surface model
Lorenz, R., Pitman, A. J., Donat, M. G., Hirsch, A. L., Kala, J., Kowalczyk, E. A., Law, R. M., & Srbinovsky, J. (2014) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-7-545-2014 · Cited by 45
Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations
Ye, K., Woollings, T. J., Sparrow, S., Watson, P. A. G., & Screen, J. A. (2024) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5 · Cited by 41
Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests
Otto, F. E. L., Jones, R., Halladay, K., & Allen, M. R. (2013) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0299 · Cited by 41
Self-citation
Differences in rice yield and CH4 and N2O emissions among mechanical planting methods with straw incorporation in Jianghuai area, China
Hang, X., Zhang, X., Song, C., Jiang, Y., Deng, A., He, R., Lü, M., & Zhang, W. (2014) · Soil and Tillage Research · doi:10.1016/j.still.2014.07.013 · Cited by 41
Reconciling Theories for Human and Natural Attribution of Recent East Africa Drying
Hoell, A., Hoerling, M. P., Eischeid, J. K., Quan, X., & Liebmann, B. (2016) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0558.1 · Cited by 41
On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements
Angélil, O., Stone, D. A., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Alexander, L. V., Wehner, M. F., Shiogama, H., Wolski, P., Ciavarella, A., & Christidis, N. (2017) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3768-9 · Cited by 41
Self-citation
Large-scale dynamics have greater role than thermodynamics in driving precipitation extremes over India
Sudharsan, N., Karmakar, S., Fowler, H. J., & Hari, V. (2020) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05410-3 · Cited by 41
Nonstationary extreme value analysis for event attribution combining climate models and observations
Robin, Y., & Ribes, A. (2020) · Advances in statistical climatology, meteorology and oceanography · doi:10.5194/ascmo-6-205-2020 · Cited by 41
Flood impacts on urban road connectivity in southern China
Zhou, R., Zheng, H., Liu, Y., Xie, G., & Wan, W. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-20882-5 · Cited by 41
An analysis of extreme flood events during the past 400years at Taihu Lake, China
Li, Y., Guo, Y., & Yu, G. (2013) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.028 · Cited by 41
Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective
Bellprat, O., Lott, F. C., Gulizia, C. N., Parker, H. R., Pampuch, L. A., Pinto, I., Ciavarella, A., & Stott, P. A. (2015) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.07.001 · Cited by 41
Self-citation
Migration in the UNFCCC Workstream on Loss and Damage: An Assessment of Alternative Framings and Conceivable Responses
Mayer, B. (2016) · Transnational Environmental Law · doi:10.1017/s2047102516000078 · Cited by 40
Verification of precipitation forecasts from two numerical weather prediction models in the Middle Atlantic Region of the USA: A precursory analysis to hydrologic forecasting
Siddique, R., Mejía, A., Brown, J., Reed, S. M., & Ahnert, P. (2015) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.08.042 · Cited by 40
Warming effects on the urban hydrology in cold climate regions
Järvi, L., Grimmond, S., McFadden, J. P., Christen, A., Strachan, I. B., Taka, M., Warsta, L., & Heimann, M. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-05733-y · Cited by 42
Flash Flood!: a SeriousGeoGames activity combining science festivals, video games, and virtual reality with research data for communicating flood risk and geomorphology
Skinner, C. (2020) · Geoscience Communication · doi:10.5194/gc-3-1-2020 · Cited by 40
Attribution of climate-related events: understanding stakeholder needs
Stott, P. A., & Walton, P. (2013) · Weather · doi:10.1002/wea.2141 · Cited by 39
Self-citation
Fast-track attribution assessments based on pre-computed estimates of changes in the odds of warm extremes
Christidis, N., Stott, P. A., & Zwiers, F. W. (2014) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2408-x · Cited by 39
Self-citation
Rainfall and climate variability: long-term trends in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo in the 20th century
Obregón, G., Marengo, J., & Nobre, C. (2014) · Climate Research · doi:10.3354/cr01241 · Cited by 39
Can ‘loss and damage’ carry the load?
Verchick, R. R. M. (2018) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2017.0070 · Cited by 38
Shifting in the global flood timing
Fang, G., Yang, J., Li, Z., Chen, Y., Duan, W., Amory, C., & Maeyer, P. D. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-23748-y · Cited by 39
Communicating the link between climate change and extreme rain events
King, A. D., Reid, K. J., & Saunders, K. (2023) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-023-01223-1 · Cited by 38
River birds’ response to hydrological extremes: New vulnerability index and conservation implications
Royan, A., Hannah, D. M., Reynolds, S. J., Noble, D. G., & Sadler, J. P. (2014) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2014.06.017 · Cited by 38
The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand
Black, M., Karoly, D. J., Rosier, S. M., Dean, S. M., King, A. D., Massey, N., Sparrow, S., Bowery, A., Wallom, D. C. H., Jones, R., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3161-2016 · Cited by 38
Self-citation
Anthropogenic influence would increase intense snowfall events over parts of the Northern Hemisphere in the future
Chen, H., Sun, J., & Lin, W. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abbc93 · Cited by 38
Climate change hits home
Weber, E. U. (2011) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1070 · Cited by 39
Precipitation-based climate change hotspots across India through a Multi-model assessment from CMIP6
Sarkar, S., Maity, S. S., & Maity, R. (2023) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129805 · Cited by 37
The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage
Lusk, G. (2017) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1967-3 · Cited by 37
Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013–14
Knight, J. R., Maidens, A., Watson, P. A. G., Andrews, M. B., Belcher, S. E., Brunet, G., Fereday, D. R., Folland, C. K., Scaife, A. A., & Slingo, J. (2017) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa693c · Cited by 37
Winter pressures on the UK health system dominated by the Greenland Blocking weather regime
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Aldridge, R. W., Grams, C. M., & Lee, R. W. (2019) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2019.100218 · Cited by 37
Gender-Related Differences in Flood Risk Perception and Behaviours among Private Groundwater Users in the Republic of Ireland
McDowell, C. P., Andrade, L., O’Neill, E., O’Malley, K., O’Dwyer, J., & Hynds, P. D. (2020) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph17062072 · Cited by 37
An international study of the propensity of students to limit their use of private transport in light of their understanding of the causes of global warming
Boyes, E., Stanisstreet, M., Skamp, K. R., Rodrı́guez, M., Malandrakis, G., Fortner, R. W., Kılınç, A., Taylor, N., Chhokar, K. B., Dua, S., et al. (2014) · International Research in Geographical and Environmental Education · doi:10.1080/10382046.2014.891425 · Cited by 37
Uncertainty as knowledge
Lewandowsky, S., Ballard, T., & Pancost, R. D. (2015) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0462 · Cited by 37
Observed magnified runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming
Huang, J., Lee, T., & Lee, J. (2014) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034008 · Cited by 36
The critical decade: climate change and health
Hughes, L., & McMichael, T. (2011) · Cited by 36
Impact of atmospheric circulation on the rainfall-temperature relationship in Australia
Magan, B., Kim, S., Wasko, C., Barbero, R., Moron, V., Nathan, R. J., & Sharma, A. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abab35 · Cited by 36
Attributing the 2015/2016 Amazon basin drought to anthropogenic influence
Neto, G. R., Anderson, L. O., Barreto, N. D. J. D. C., de Abreu, R. C., Alves, L. M., Dong, B., Lott, F. C., & Tett, S. F. B. (2021) · Climate Resilience and Sustainability · doi:10.1002/cli2.25 · Cited by 36
Estimating unprecedented extremes in UK summer daily rainfall
Kent, C., Dunstone, N., Tucker, S. O., Scaife, A. A., Brown, S. J., Kendon, E., Smith, D. M., McLean, L., & Greenwood, S. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac42fb · Cited by 36
Translocation of stream-dwelling salmonids in headwaters: insights from a 15-year reintroduction experience
Vincenzi, S., Crivelli, A. J., Jeseňsek, D., & Leo, G. A. D. (2011) · Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries · doi:10.1007/s11160-011-9235-5 · Cited by 36
Recent Change—Atmosphere
Rutgersson, A., Jaagus, J., Schenk, F., Stendel, M., Bärring, L., Briede, A., Claremar, B., Hanssen‐Bauer, I., Holopainen, J., Moberg, A., et al. (2015) · Regional climate studies · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_4 · Cited by 39
Comparative effects of prolonged freshwater and saline flooding on nitrogen cycling in an agricultural soil
Sánchez‐Rodríguez, A. R., Chadwick, D. R., Tatton, G. S., Hill, P. W., & Jones, D. L. (2017) · Applied Soil Ecology · doi:10.1016/j.apsoil.2017.11.022 · Cited by 36
Challenges in the attribution of river flood events
Scussolini, P., Luu, L. N., Philip, S. Y., Berghuijs, W. R., Eilander, D., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Kew, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Toonen, W. H. J., Volkholz, J., et al. (2023) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.874 · Cited by 35
Possible role of anthropogenic climate change in the record-breaking 2020 Lake Victoria levels and floods
Pietroiusti, R., Vanderkelen, I., Otto, F. E. L., Barnes, C. R., Temple, L., Akurut, M., Bally, P., van Lipzig, N. P. M., & Thiery, W. (2024) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-15-225-2024 · Cited by 35
Implications of event attribution for loss and damage policy
Parker, H. R., Cornforth, R., Boyd, E., James, R., Otto, F. E. L., & Allen, M. R. (2015) · Weather · doi:10.1002/wea.2542 · Cited by 35
Self-citation
Disaster-induced migration: Assessing the impact of extreme weather events on livelihoods
Krishnamurthy, P. K. (2012) · Environmental Hazards · doi:10.1080/17477891.2011.609879 · Cited by 41
Avian Community Responses to Variability in River Hydrology
Royan, A., Hannah, D. M., Reynolds, S. J., Noble, D. G., & Sadler, J. P. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0083221 · Cited by 35
Climate change and Scotland: recent trends and impacts
Werritty, A., & Sugden, D. E. (2012) · Earth and Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh · doi:10.1017/s1755691013000030 · Cited by 35
CO 2 reverse selective mixed matrix membranes for H 2 purification by incorporation of carbon–silica fillers
de Clippel, F., Khan, A. L., Cano-Òdena, À., Dusselier, M., Vanherck, K., Peng, L., Oswald, S., Giebeler, L., Corthals, S., Kenens, B., et al. (2012) · Journal of Materials Chemistry A · doi:10.1039/c2ta00098a · Cited by 35
Climate‐induced changes in river flow regimes will alter future bird distributions
Royan, A., Prudhomme, C., Hannah, D. M., Reynolds, S. J., Noble, D. G., & Sadler, J. P. (2015) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es14-00245.1 · Cited by 35
Sensitivities of Extreme Precipitation to Global Warming Are Lower over Mountains than over Oceans and Plains
Shi, X., & Durran, D. R. (2016) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0576.1 · Cited by 35
A retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrologic event: a case study of Hurricane Irene and on the Hudson River basin
Saleh, F., Ramaswamy, V., Georgas, N., Blumberg, A. F., & Pullen, J. (2016) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-20-2649-2016 · Cited by 35
The Importance of Place in Communicating Climate Change to Different Facets of the American Public
Halperin, A., & Walton, P. (2017) · Weather Climate and Society · doi:10.1175/wcas-d-16-0119.1 · Cited by 36
Review of recent advances in climate change detection and attribution studies: a large-scale hydroclimatological perspective
Sonali, P., & Kumar, D. N. (2020) · Journal of Water and Climate Change · doi:10.2166/wcc.2020.091 · Cited by 35
Linking temperature to catastrophe damages from hydrologic and meteorological extremes
Wasko, C., Sharma, A., & Pui, A. (2021) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126731 · Cited by 35
Increased rainfall remarkably freshens estuarine and coastal waters on the Pacific coast of Panama: Magnitude and likely effects on upwelling and nutrient supply
Valiela, I., Camilli, L., STONE, T. A., Giblin, A. E., Crusius, J., Fox, S. E., Barth-Jensen, C., Monteiro, R. O., Tucker, J., Martinetto, P., et al. (2012) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.05.006 · Cited by 35
A Remote Sensing Approach for Landslide Hazard Assessment on Engineered Slopes
Miller, P. E., Mills, J. P., Barr, S. L., Birkinshaw, S., Hardy, A. J., Parkin, G., & Hall, S. J. (2011) · IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/tgrs.2011.2165547 · Cited by 34
Are estimates of anthropogenic and natural influences on Australia’s extreme 2010–2012 rainfall model-dependent?
Lewis, S. C., & Karoly, D. J. (2014) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2283-5 · Cited by 34
Vismate: Interactive visual analysis of station-based observation data on climate changes
Li, J., Kang Zhang, A., & Meng, Z. (2014) · IEEE Conference on Visual Analytics Science and Technology (VAST) · doi:10.1109/vast.2014.7042489 · Cited by 34
Multi–Model Ensemble Approaches to Assessment of Effects of Local Climate Change on Water Resources of the Hotan River Basin in Xinjiang, China
Luo, M., Meng, F., Liu, T., Duan, Y., Frankl, A., Kurban, A., & Maeyer, P. D. (2017) · Water · doi:10.3390/w9080584 · Cited by 34
Impact of Climate Change on Metal and Suspended Sediment Concentrations in Urban Waters
Frogner-Kockum, P., Göransson, G., & Haeger‐Eugensson, M. (2020) · Frontiers in Environmental Science · doi:10.3389/fenvs.2020.588335 · Cited by 34
Historical research as a tool in estimating hydrogeological hazard in a typical small alpine-like area: The example of the Versilia River basin (Apuan Alps, Italy)
Giannecchini, R., & Avanzi, G. D. (2012) · Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C · doi:10.1016/j.pce.2011.12.005 · Cited by 34
The drivers of variability in UK extreme rainfall
Brown, S. J. (2017) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.5356 · Cited by 34
Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems
Mitchell, D., Davini, P., Harvey, B. J., Massey, N., Haustein, K., Woollings, T. J., Jones, R., Otto, F. E. L., Guillod, B. P., Sparrow, S., et al. (2016) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3308-z · Cited by 33
Self-citation
The Influence of Tropical Cyclones on the Evolution of River Conveyance Capacity in Puerto Rico
Li, Y., Wright, D. B., & Byrne, P. K. (2020) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2020wr027971 · Cited by 33
Impacts of extreme weather events on highly eutrophic marine ecosystem (Rogoznica Lake, Adriatic coast)
Ciglenečki, I., Janeković, I., Marguš, M., Bura‐Nakić, E., Carić, M., Ljubešić, Z., Batistić, M., Hrustić, ⎜., Radić, I. D., & Garić, R. (2015) · Continental Shelf Research · doi:10.1016/j.csr.2015.05.007 · Cited by 36
Flexitarianism: a more moral dietary option
Raphaely, T., & Marinova, D. V. (2013) · International Journal of Sustainable Society · doi:10.1504/ijssoc.2014.057846 · Cited by 33

Authors: Pall, P., Aina, T., Stone, D. A., Stott, P. A., Nozawa, T., Hilberts, A. G. J., Lohmann, D., & Allen, M. R.
Affiliations: University of Oxford (GB)
Met Office (GB)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
Risk Management Solutions (United Kingdom) (GB)
Corresponding author: Pall, Pardeep
ORCID: Pall, Pardeep
Stone, Dáithí A.
Stott, Peter A.
Hilberts, Arno G. J.
Allen, Myles R.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2011-02
Volume: 470
Issue: 7334
Pages: 382-385
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/nature09762
OpenAlex: W2060677109
Cited by: 871
References: 30
Citations by year: 2026: 18 · 2025: 21 · 2024: 40 · 2023: 55 · 2022: 36 · 2021: 51 · 2020: 56 · 2019: 54 · 2018: 50 · 2017: 61 · 2016: 80 · 2015: 73 · 2014: 68 · 2013: 78 · 2012: 74
FWCI: 70.05
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
CentAUR (University of Reading) (acceptedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders: Natural Environment Research Council
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Flood Risk Assessment and Management
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Keywords: anthropogenic climate change, flood risk, event attribution, greenhouse gas emissions, climate model simulation, rainfall-runoff modeling, river discharge, heavy rainfall, distributed computing, hydrometeorology, climate change impacts on floods
MeSH terms: Disasters, England, Human Activities, Models, Theoretical, Rain, Seasons, Wales, Greenhouse Effect, Risk Assessment, Rivers, Floods, Global Warming

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000

Abstract

Overview

Integrity signals

Verification

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Citations

Cites

Cited by

Related

Metadata

Record

About these checks