The DOI matches its Crossref record; 31 of the 31 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history
Abstract
Rapid warming over the past 50 years on the Antarctic Peninsula is associated with the collapse of a number of ice shelves and accelerating glacier mass loss. In contrast, warming has been comparatively modest over West Antarctica and significant changes have not been observed over most of East Antarctica, suggesting that the ice-core palaeoclimate records available from these areas may not be representative of the climate history of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here we show that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced an early-Holocene warm period followed by stable temperatures, from about 9,200 to 2,500 years ago, that were similar to modern-day levels. Our temperature estimates are based on an ice-core record of deuterium variations from James Ross Island, off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that the late-Holocene development of ice shelves near James Ross Island was coincident with pronounced cooling from 2,500 to 600 years ago. This cooling was part of a millennial-scale climate excursion with opposing anomalies on the eastern and western sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse. Continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.
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“Besides, the Little Ice Age itself is not identifiable globally e it is most prominent in the Northern Hemisphere, and absent from the Antarctic Peninsula (Mulvaney et al., 2012).”
From When did the Anthropocene begin? A mid-twentieth century boundary level is stratigraphically optimal (2015) · cites this paper as Mulvaney et al., 2012
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Citations
Cites
Global surface temperature change
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., & Lo, K. (2010) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2010rg000345 · Cited by 3,081
Improvements to NOAA’s Historical Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880–2006)
Smith, T. M., Reynolds, R. W., Peterson, T. C., & Lawrimore, J. H. (2008) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2007jcli2100.1 · Cited by 2,934
Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core
Members, E. C. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature02599 · Cited by 2,503
One-to-one coupling of glacial climate variability in Greenland and Antarctica
Members, E. C. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature05301 · Cited by 1,307
MANN, M. E., Zhang, Z., Hughes, M. K., Bradley, R. S., Miller, S. K., Rutherford, S., & Ni, F. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0805721105 · Cited by 1,234
Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula
Vaughan, D. G., Marshall, G. J., Connolley, W. M., Parkinson, C. L., Mulvaney, R., Hodgson, D. A., King, J., Pudsey, C. J., & Turner, J. C. (2003) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1023/a:1026021217991 · Cited by 1,230
Self-citationAntarctic climate change during the last 50 years
Turner, J. C., Colwell, S. R., Marshall, G. J., Lachlan‐Cope, T., Carleton, A. M., Jones, P. D., Lagun, V. E., Reid, P., & Iagovkina, S. (2005) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.1130 · Cited by 1,200
Retreating Glacier Fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the Past Half-Century
Cook, A. J., Fox, A. J., Vaughan, D. G., & Ferrigno, J. G. (2005) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1104235 · Cited by 861
Modelled atmospheric temperatures and global sea levels over the past million years
Bintanja, R., van de Wal, R. S. W., & Oerlemans, J. (2005) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature03975 · Cited by 758
Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year
Steig, E. J., Schneider, D. P., Rutherford, S., MANN, M. E., Comiso, J. C., & Shindell, D. T. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature07669 · Cited by 732
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When did the Anthropocene begin? A mid-twentieth century boundary level is stratigraphically optimal
Zalasiewicz, J., Waters, C. N., Williams, M., Barnosky, A. D., Cearreta, A., Crutzen, P., Ellis, E., Ellis, M. A., Fairchild, I. J., Grinevald, J., et al. (2015) · Quaternary International · doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2014.11.045 · Cited by 784
Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability
Turner, J. C., Lu, H., White, I., King, J., Phillips, T., Hosking, J. S., Bracegirdle, T. J., Marshall, G. J., Mulvaney, R., & Deb, P. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature18645 · Cited by 772
Self-citationSolomina, O. N., Bradley, R. S., Hodgson, D. A., Ivy-Ochs, S. D., Jomelli, V., Mackintosh, A. N., Nesje, A., Owen, L. A., Wanner, H., Wiles, G. C., et al. (2015) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.11.018 · Cited by 479
Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat
Lee, J. R., Raymond, B., Bracegirdle, T. J., Chadès, I., Fuller, R. A., Shaw, J. D. S., & Terauds, A. (2017) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature22996 · Cited by 432
Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium
Abram, N. J., Mulvaney, R., Vimeux, F., Phipps, S. J., Turner, J. C., & England, M. H. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2235 · Cited by 442
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Metadata
- Authors
- Mulvaney, R., Abram, N. J., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Arrowsmith, C., Fleet, L., Triest, J., Sime, L. C., Alemany, O., & Foord, S.
- Affiliations
- British Antarctic Survey (GB)
- Australian National University (AU)
- Natural Environment Research Council (GB)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Corresponding author
- Mulvaney, Robert
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2012-08-22
- Volume
- 489
- Issue
- 7414
- Pages
- 141-144
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2106324800
- Cited by
- 356
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 35 · 2021: 32 · 2020: 26 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 21 · 2017: 27 · 2016: 25 · 2015: 22 · 2014: 30 · 2013: 24 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 16.82
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/F015526/1, bas0100024)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Cryospheric studies and observations
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Polar Research and Ecology
- Keywords
- Antarctic Peninsula warming, Holocene climate, ice shelf instability, ice shelf collapse, deuterium isotopes, James Ross Island, late Holocene cooling, millennial-scale climate variability, natural climate variability, glacier mass loss, 20th century warming, paleoclimate
- MeSH terms
- Antarctic Regions, Geography, Oceans and Seas, Seawater, Temperature, Geologic Sediments, Ice Cover, History, 15th Century, History, 16th Century, History, 17th Century, History, 18th Century, History, 19th Century, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century, History, Ancient, History, Medieval, Global Warming
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