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‘Climate value at risk’ of global financial assets

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Dietz, Simon, Bowen, Alex, Dixon, Charlie, Gradwell, Philip·2016·Nature Climate Change

DOI 10.1038/nclimate2972

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“2 trillion (trn) USD of lost financial assets (Dietz et al. 2016).”
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“Dietz et al. (2016) introduce probability distributions for impacts in DICE to study how climate change may affect risks of global financial assets.”
Background
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“Drawing on this approach, other methods such as scenario analysis (Schulten et al. 2021), stress testing (Batten, Sower-butts, and Tanaka 2016; Monasterolo 2020), climate value-at-risk (Dietz et al. 2016), and sensitivity analysis (BCBS 2021a) have been proposed.”
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BackgroundInfluential
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“…a more complex damage mechanism to discuss this uncertainty; for example, the original damage on net output can be extended to capital stock (Dietz et al., 2016), and the objective of maximizing the total welfare can be changed to maximizing the average utilitarianism (Scovronick et al.,…”
Background
Green preferences
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“Influenced by climate change, financial risks can be intensified (Dietz et al. 2016).”
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“The results of Dietz et al. (2016) showed that the estimated climate-induced physical loss in value of financial assets is about US$ 2.5 trillion, and an action to limit warming to below 2 o C makes the value of financial assets 0.2% higher, compared with business as usual.”
Influential
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“…scopes of carbon emissions (as defined by the GHG protocol10) and three variables: the 8 Other similar literature: includes Battiston et al. (2021); Dietz et al. (2016); Monasterolo et al. (2019); Vermeulen et al. (2021) 9 Other similar literature includes Campiglio et al. (2018); Dafermos et al.…”
Method
An uncertainty-based risk management framework for climate change risk
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“Transition risk affects the stability of the financial system usually through uncertainties in social governance or industrial structural transition resulting from the pressure of natural disasters due to climate change [47].”
Background
Influencing Factors of Green Credit Efficiency in Chinese Commercial Banks
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Stimulating Non-bank Financial Institutions’ Participation in Green Investments
Gianfrate, G., & Lorenzato, G. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-10-8710-3_23-2 · Cited by 10
“Dietz et al. (2016) show how a leading integrated assessment model can be used to quantify the expected impact of climate change on the present market value of global financial assets.”
Background
Design of green bonds by double-barrier options
Zhang, S., Yang, Z., & Wang, S. (2019) · Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - S · doi:10.3934/dcdss.2020110 · Cited by 10
“Limiting the global warming to no more than two degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level makes financial sense to risk-neutral investors and even more to risk-averse investors (Dietz et al. 2016) [10].”
Background
Carbon dioxide risk exposure: Co2Risk
Garcia‐Jorcano, L., Jiménez‐Martín, J., & Robles, M.-D. (2022) · Climate Risk Management · doi:10.1016/j.crm.2022.100435 · Cited by 12
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The double materiality of climate physical and transition risks in the euro areaPreprint
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Firm carbon risk exposure and financial stability
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Chernokulsky, А. V., Makarov, I. A., АНИСЬКИНА, Т. А., Chistikov, M., Kraev, G. N., Kurichev, N. K., Sheludkov, A. V., Smolovik, E., Виноградова, В. В., & Yudova, O. (2025) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179721 · Cited by 10
Finance in Sustainable Transition: A Comparative Review Across Institutional Investors, Asset Managers, Venture Capital, Insurance, and Bonds
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Decoupled net present value: protecting assets against climate change risk by consistently capturing the value of resilient and adaptable investments
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“According to some estimates, the impact of climate change on asset values under business-as-usual scenarios could result in write-downs on the order of 17% of global financial asset value (Dietz et al., 2016).”
Background
Climate change and stock market: a review
Tay, B.-H. (2023) · IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science · doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1151/1/012021 · Cited by 9
“Due to the fact that financial assets are ultimately supported by the real economy as well as the fact that climate change exposes businesses to new risks and has significant financial ramifications for the underlying stocks, financial market participants face significant challenges [3, 4].”
Background
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“Dietz et al. (2016) estimated the “Climate value at risk” of global ﬁnancial assets to be equal to 1.8% or 2.5 trillion USD based on a representative global ﬁnancial asset portfolio.”
Influential
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“Green finance is a term for financial goods and services that help protect the environment and move the economy toward one that uses less carbon (S. Dietz et al. 2016).”
The microeconomic effects of temperature changes
He, W., Cheng, Y., Zhang, H., Guo, F., & Yu, H. (2021) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129389 · Cited by 8
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Designing Carbon-Neutral Investment Portfolios
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Integrating metals and minerals into climate-economic models: a review
Safarzyńska, K., & Kryvyy, T. (2025) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-025-03966-9 · Cited by 9
“Attempts have been made to estimate financial losses caused by climate change using IAMs by comparing growth scenarios with and without climate damages (e.g., Dietz et al. 2016 ).”
Climate risk exposure and bank risk-taking behavior: new evidence from China
Zhang, Y., & Hui, M. (2025) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-025-06232-6 · Cited by 7
“This decline in stability re ﬂ ects the combined effect of rising passive credit losses and a greater appetite for active risk, highlighting the threat that physical climate events pose to the capital buffers and ﬁ nancial resilience of exposed institutions (Dietz et al., 2016).”
Climate change and the financial system: a note
Xepapadeas, A. (2020) · Journal of Industrial and Business Economics · doi:10.1007/s40812-020-00158-7 · Cited by 7
Introducing Principles and Standards for Responsible Investment
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Authors: Dietz, S., Bowen, A., Dixon, C., & Gradwell, P.
Affiliations: Vivid Economics (United Kingdom) (GB)
Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (GB)
Corresponding author: Dietz, Simon
ORCID: Dietz, Simon
Venue: Nature Climate Change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2016-04-04
Volume: 6
Issue: 7
Pages: 676-679
ISSN: 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2972
OpenAlex: W2330768275
Cited by: 694
References: 33
Citations by year: 2026: 111 · 2025: 126 · 2024: 121 · 2023: 66 · 2022: 66 · 2021: 72 · 2020: 45 · 2019: 32 · 2018: 27 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 6
FWCI: 42.30
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
orcid.org
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics (submittedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders: Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment
Economic and Social Research Council (ES/K006576/1)
Topics: Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Sustainable Finance and Green Bonds
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
Keywords: financial assets, 2°C target, integrated assessment models, business-as-usual emissions, tail risk, mitigation costs, risk-neutral investors, risk-averse investors

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