Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change
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A few global climate models indicate a broad range for a potential critical threshold in global warming between 2 and 6 °C.
“Nonetheless, a few global climate models3,14,71–74 indicate a broad range for a potential critical threshold in global warming between 2 and 6 °C (Fig. 3a).”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [73]
The ‘Response of Amazon forest’ passage (p. 6) says that continued dieback after emissions cuts implies a climate threshold beyond which dieback is committed. The copy does not give a 2–6 °C threshold range, and its discussion of multiple vegetation models does not establish that a few global climate models produced that range. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E. H. (., et al. (2010) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001 · Cited by 7,763 · see citing works
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
Steffen, W., Rockström, J., Richardson, K., Lenton, T. M., Folke, C., Liverman, D., Summerhayes, C. P., Barnosky, A. D., Cornell, S. E., Crucifix, M., et al. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115 · Cited by 3,139 · see citing works
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abn7950 · Cited by 1,931 · see citing works
Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system
Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0 · Cited by 607 · see citing works
Self-citationCarbon debt and carbon sequestration parity in forest bioenergy production
Mitchell, S. R., Harmon, M. E., & O'Connell, K. E. B. (2012) · GCB Bioenergy · doi:10.1111/j.1757-1707.2012.01173.x · Cited by 173 · see citing works
Accounting for the climate-carbon feedback in emission metrics
Gasser, T., Peters, G. P., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Collins, W. J., Shindell, D. T., & Ciais, P. (2017) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-8-235-2017 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
- Authors
- Jones, C., Lowe, J., Liddicoat, S., & Betts, R.
- Affiliations
- Met Office (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Jones, Chris
- Venue
- Nature Geoscience
- Published
- 2009-06-28
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 484-487
- ISSN
- 1752-0894 (ISSN-L)
- 1752-0908
- OpenAlex
- W2091101199
- Cited by
- 199
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 20 · 2012: 18
- FWCI
- 12.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Geoscience (publishedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (acceptedVersion)
- CentAUR (University of Reading) (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Keywords
- climate stabilization, radiative forcing, global mean temperature, dangerous climate change
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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