A Mechanistic, Model‐Based Approach to Safety Assessment in Clinical Development
Open accessAbstract
Assessing the safety of pharmacotherapies is a primary goal of clinical trials in drug development. The low frequency of relevant side effects, however, often poses a significant challenge for risk assessment. Methodologies allowing robust extrapolation of safety statistics based on preclinical data and information from clinical trials with limited numbers of patients are hence needed to further improve safety and efficacy in the drug development process. Here, we present a generic systems pharmacology approach integrating prior physiological and pharmacological knowledge, preclinical data, and clinical trial results, which allows predicting adverse event rates related to drug exposure. Possible fields of application involve high‐risk populations, novel drug candidates, and different dosing scenarios. As an example, the approach is applied to simvastatin and pravastatin and the prediction of myopathy rates in a population with a genotype leading to a significantly increased myopathy risk. CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology(2012) 1, e13; doi:10.1038/psp.2012.14; advance online publication 7 November 2012
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
There are several previously published PBPK models for simvastatin: one in Simcyp, two in PK-Sim, and another semimechanistic PBPK model in NONMEM.
“There are several previously published PBPK models for simvastatin: one in Simcyp, 39 two in PK‐Sim 47 , 48 and another semimechanistic PBPK model in NONMEM. 49”
From Does the choice of applied physiologically‐based pharmacokinetics platform matter? A case study on simvastatin disposition and drug–drug interaction (2022) · cites this paper as [47]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
<i>SLCO1B1</i> Variants and Statin-Induced Myopathy — A Genomewide Study
(2008) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa0801936 · Cited by 2,043 · see citing works
Arrowsmith, J. (2011) · Nature Reviews Drug Discovery · doi:10.1038/nrd3439 · Cited by 622 · see citing works
Willmann, S., Lippert, J., & Schmitt, W. (2005) · Expert Opinion on Drug Metabolism & Toxicology · doi:10.1517/17425255.1.1.159 · Cited by 140 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 43
- Paul S.M.et al. How to improve R&D productivity: the pharmaceutical industry's grand challenge Nat. Rev. Drug Discov 9 203 214 2010 20168317
- Qureshi Z.P. Seoane-Vazquez E. Rodriguez-Monguio R. Stevenson K.B. & Szeinbach S.L. Market withdrawal of new molecular entities approved in the United States from 1980 to 2009 Pharmacoepidemiol. Drug Saf 20 772 777 2011 21574210
- Valerio L.G. Jr In silico toxicology for the pharmaceutical sciences Toxicol. Appl. Pharmacol 241 356 370 2009 19716836
- Jeliazkova N. Web tools for predictive toxicology model building Expert Opin. Drug Metab. Toxicol 8 791 801 2012 22577953
- Mohan C.G. Impact of computational structure-based predictive toxicology in drug discovery Comb. Chem. High Throughput Screen 14 417 426 2011 21470184
- Yoon M. Campbell J.L. Andersen M.E. & Clewell H.J. Quantitative in vitro to in vivo extrapolation of cell-based toxicity assay results Crit. Rev. Toxicol 42 633 652 2012 22667820
- Bischoff K.B. & Dedrick R.L. Generalized solution to linear, to compartment, open model for drug distribution J. Theor. Biol 29 63 68 1970 5493292
- Woodruff T.J.et al. Meeting report: moving upstream-evaluating adverse upstream end points for improved risk assessment and decision-making Environ. Health Perspect 116 1568 1575 2008 19057713 PMC2592280
- Bois F.Y. Jamei M. & Clewell H.J. PBPK modelling of inter-individual variability in the pharmacokinetics of environmental chemicals Toxicology 278 256 267 2010 20600548
- Loizou G.et al. Development of good modelling practice for physiologically based pharmacokinetic models for use in risk assessment: the first steps Regul. Toxicol. Pharmacol 50 400 411 2008 18331772
- Willmann S. Edginton A.N. Coboeken K. Ahr G. & Lippert J. Risk to the breast-fed neonate from codeine treatment to the mother: a quantitative mechanistic modeling study Clin. Pharmacol. Ther 86 634 643 2009 19710640
- Nestorov I. Whole-body physiologically based pharmacokinetic models Expert Opin. Drug Metab. Toxicol 3 235 249 2007 17428153
- Poulin P. & Theil F.P. Prediction of pharmacokinetics prior to in vivo studies. II. Generic physiologically based pharmacokinetic models of drug disposition J. Pharm. Sci 91 1358 1370 2002 11977112
- Kawai R. Lemaire M. Steimer J.L. Bruelisauer A. Niederberger W. & Rowland M. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic study on a cyclosporin derivative, SDZ IMM 125 J. Pharmacokinet. Biopharm 22 327 365 1994 7791036
- Charnick S.B. Kawai R. Nedelman J.R. Lemaire M. Niederberger W. & Sato H. Perspectives in pharmacokinetics. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling as a tool for drug development J. Pharmacokinet. Biopharm 23 217 229 1995 8719238
- Willmann S. Schmitt W. Keldenich J. Lippert J. & Dressman J.B. A physiological model for the estimation of the fraction dose absorbed in humans J. Med. Chem 47 4022 4031 2004 15267240
- Meyer M. Schneckener S. Ludewig B. Kuepfer L. & Lippert J. Using expression data for quantification of active processes in physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling Drug Metab. Dispos 40 892 901 2012 22293118
- Waters M.D. & Fostel J.M. Toxicogenomics and systems toxicology: aims and prospects Nat. Rev. Genet 5 936 948 2004 15573125
- Chatzizisis Y.S. Koskinas K.C. Misirli G. Vaklavas C. Hatzitolios A. & Giannoglou G.D. Risk factors and drug interactions predisposing to statin-induced myopathy: implications for risk assessment, prevention and treatment Drug Saf 33 171 187 2010 20158283
- Voora D.et al. The SLCO1B1*5 genetic variant is associated with statin-induced side effects J. Am. Coll. Cardiol 54 1609 1616 2009 19833260 PMC3417133
- Niemi M. Pasanen M.K. & Neuvonen P.J. Organic anion transporting polypeptide 1B1: a genetically polymorphic transporter of major importance for hepatic drug uptake Pharmacol. Rev 63 157 181 2011 21245207
- Backes J.M. Howard P.A. Ruisinger J.F. & Moriarty P.M. Does simvastatin cause more myotoxicity compared with other statins Ann. Pharmacother 43 2012 2020 2009 19920157
- Niemi M. Pasanen M.K. & Neuvonen P.J. SLCO1B1 polymorphism and sex affect the pharmacokinetics of pravastatin but not fluvastatin Clin. Pharmacol. Ther 80 356 366 2006 17015053
- Pasanen M.K. Neuvonen M. Neuvonen P.J. & Niemi M. SLCO1B1 polymorphism markedly affects the pharmacokinetics of simvastatin acid Pharmacogenet. Genomics 16 873 879 2006 17108811
- García M.J. Reinoso R.F. Sánchez Navarro A. & Prous J.R. Clinical pharmacokinetics of statins Methods Find. Exp. Clin. Pharmacol 25 457 481 2003 12949632
- Hatanaka T. Clinical pharmacokinetics of pravastatin: mechanisms of pharmacokinetic events Clin. Pharmacokinet 39 397 412 2000 11192473
- Kivistö K.T. & Niemi M. Influence of drug transporter polymorphisms on pravastatin pharmacokinetics in humans Pharm. Res 24 239 247 2007 17177112
- Mwinyi J. Johne A. Bauer S. Roots I. & Gerloff T. Evidence for inverse effects of OATP-C (SLC21A6) 5 and 1b haplotypes on pravastatin kinetics Clin. Pharmacol. Ther 75 415 421 2004 15116054
- Singhvi S.M. Pan H.Y. Morrison R.A. & Willard D.A. Disposition of pravastatin sodium, a tissue-selective HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor, in healthy subjects Br. J. Clin. Pharmacol 29 239 243 1990 2106337 PMC1380090
- Everett D.W. Chando T.J. Didonato G.C. Singhvi S.M. Pan H.Y. & Weinstein S.H. Biotransformation of pravastatin sodium in humans Drug Metab. Dispos 19 740 748 1991 1680649
- Todd P.A. & Goa K.L. Simvastatin. A review of its pharmacological properties and therapeutic potential in hypercholesterolaemia Drugs 40 583 607 1990 2083515
- Niemi M. Transporter pharmacogenetics and statin toxicity Clin. Pharmacol. Ther 87 130 133 2010 19890253
- Kuepfer L. Peter M. Sauer U. & Stelling J. Ensemble modeling for analysis of cell signaling dynamics Nat. Biotechnol 25 1001 1006 2007 17846631
- Eissing T.et al. A computational systems biology software platform for multiscale modeling and simulation: integrating whole-body physiology, disease biology, and molecular reaction networks Front. Physiol 2 4 2011 21483730 PMC3070480
- Willmann S.et al. Development of a physiology-based whole-body population model for assessing the influence of individual variability on the pharmacokinetics of drugs J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn 34 401 431 2007 17431751
- Kobayashi M.et al. Association between risk of myopathy and cholesterol-lowering effect: a comparison of all statins Life Sci 82 969 975 2008 18402982
- Pasanen M.K. Backman J.T. Neuvonen P.J. & Niemi M. Frequencies of single nucleotide polymorphisms and haplotypes of organic anion transporting polypeptide 1B1 SLCO1B1 gene in a Finnish population Eur. J. Clin. Pharmacol 62 409 415 2006 16758257
- Eissing T. Lippert J. & Willmann S. Pharmacogenomics of codeine, morphine, and morphine-6-glucuronide: model-based analysis of the influence of CYP2D6 activity, UGT2B7 activity, renal impairment, and CYP3A4 inhibition Mol. Diagn. Ther 16 43 53 2012 22352453
- Sakaeda T. Kadoyama K. & Okuno Y. Statin-associated muscular and renal adverse events: data mining of the public version of the FDA adverse event reporting system PLoS ONE 6 e28124 2011 22205938 PMC3243683
- Poulin P. & Theil F.P. Prediction of pharmacokinetics prior to in vivo studies. 1. Mechanism-based prediction of volume of distribution J. Pharm. Sci 91 129 156 2002 11782904
- Rodgers T. Leahy D. & Rowland M. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling 1: predicting the tissue distribution of moderate-to-strong bases J. Pharm. Sci 94 1259 1276 2005 15858854
- Sadeghi M.M. Collinge M. Pardi R. & Bender J.R. Simvastatin modulates cytokine-mediated endothelial cell adhesion molecule induction: involvement of an inhibitory G protein J. Immunol 165 2712 2718 2000 10946302
- Kameyama Y. Yamashita K. Kobayashi K. Hosokawa M. & Chiba K. Functional characterization of SLCO1B1 (OATP-C) variants, SLCO1B1*5, SLCO1B1*15 and SLCO1B1*15+C1007G, by using transient expression systems of HeLa and HEK293 cells Pharmacogenet. Genomics 15 513 522 2005 15970799
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Applied Concepts in PBPK Modeling: How to Build a PBPK/PD Model
Kuepfer, L., Niederalt, C., Wendl, T., Schlender, J., Willmann, S., Lippert, J., Block, M., Eissing, T., & Teutonico, D. (2016) · CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology · doi:10.1002/psp4.12134 · Cited by 425 · see citing works
Self-citationModel-Based Drug Development: A Rational Approach to Efficiently Accelerate Drug Development
Milligan, P. A., Brown, M. J., Marchant, B., Martin, S. W., van der Graaf, P. H., Benson, N., Nucci, G., Nichols, D. J., Boyd, R. A., Mandema, J. W., et al. (2013) · Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics · doi:10.1038/clpt.2013.54 · Cited by 238 · see citing works
Systems pharmacology for drug discovery and development: paradigm shift or flash in the pan?
Vicini, P., & van der Graaf, P. H. (2013) · Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics · doi:10.1038/clpt.2013.40 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
Prieto Garcia, L., Lundahl, A., Ahlström, C., Vildhede, A., Lennernäs, H., & Sjögren, E. (2022) · CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology · doi:10.1002/psp4.12837 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Benson, N., Matsuura, T., Smirnov, S., Demin, O., Jones, H. M., Dua, P., & van der Graaf, P. H. (2013) · Interface Focus · doi:10.1098/rsfs.2012.0071 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
- Authors
- Lippert, J., Brosch, M., von Kampen, O., Meyer, M., Siegmund, H. ‐., Schafmayer, C., Becker, T., Laffert, B., Görlitz, L., Schreiber, S., Neuvonen, P., Niemi, M., Hampe, J., & Kuepfer, L.
- Affiliations
- Bayer (Germany) (DE)
- Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (DE)
- Department of Internal Medicine I University Hospital Schleswig‐Holstein, Campus Kiel, Christian‐Albrechts‐University Kiel Germany
- Cell Culture Service Hamburg Germany
- Department of Clinical Pharmacology University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
- University of Helsinki (FI)
- Corresponding author
- Kuepfer, L
- Venue
- CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2012-11
- Volume
- 1
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1-8
- ISSN
- 2163-8306 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3600730
- OpenAlex
- W2079342143
- Cited by
- 43
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 2 · 2022: 2 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 5
- FWCI
- 5.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- CPT Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Pharmaceutical studies and practices
- Life Sciences › Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics › Toxicology › Pharmacovigilance and Adverse Drug Reactions
- Keywords
- drug safety assessment, systems pharmacology, adverse event prediction, simvastatin, pravastatin, statin-induced myopathy, statin-induced rhabdomyolysis, drug exposure, risk assessment, vulnerable populations
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review