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Cited by 184Geology and Paleoclimatology ResearchAncient Egypt and ArchaeologyArchaeology and ancient environmental studies

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Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt

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Manning, Joseph G., Ludlow, Francis, Stine, Alexander R., Boos, William R., Sigl, Michael, Marlon, Jennifer R.·2017·Nature Communications
DOI 10.1038/s41467-017-00957-yPMC PMC5645420
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Abstract

Volcanic eruptions provide tests of human and natural system sensitivity to abrupt shocks because their repeated occurrence allows the identification of systematic relationships in the presence of random variability. Here we show a suppression of Nile summer flooding via the radiative and dynamical impacts of explosive volcanism on the African monsoon, using climate model output, ice-core-based volcanic forcing data, Nilometer measurements, and ancient Egyptian writings. We then examine the response of Ptolemaic Egypt (305–30 BCE), one of the best-documented ancient superpowers, to volcanically induced Nile suppression. Eruptions are associated with revolt onset against elite rule, and the cessation of Ptolemaic state warfare with their great rival, the Seleukid Empire. Eruptions are also followed by socioeconomic stress with increased hereditary land sales, and the issuance of priestly decrees to reinforce elite authority. Ptolemaic vulnerability to volcanic eruptions offers a caution for all monsoon-dependent agricultural regions, presently including 70% of world population.

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Fig. 1 Political and environmental setting with volcanic forcing history. a Eastern Mediterranean wet season rainfall (taking as example the December mean, mm, 1950–2000, at 30 arc-seconds resolution, worldclim.org, v1.4)66, indicative of Ptolemaic and Seleukid territories potentially capable of rainfed agriculture, with state boundaries c.275 BCE overlain: Ptolemaic (black line with diagonal dashes) and Seleukid (thick gray dashes)67. Key territories contested by these states are numbered with red Arabic numerals alongside indicative rectangles (1, Cyrenaica; 2, ‘Koile’ Syria; 3, Cyprus; 4, Lycia; 5, Caria) and are observed to focus on regions potentially capable of rainfed agriculture. Selected urban power bases are located with Roman numerals ((i), Babylon; (ii), Antioch; (iii), Seleukia; (iv), Alexandria; (v), Memphis; (vi), Thebes). b Ice-core-indicated dates of maximum aerosol forcing from volcanic eruptions with time-integrated (i.e., cumulative (Methods section)) forcing estimates for the Northern Hemisphere, 400 BCE to the present27. CMIP5 eruptions are those five twentieth century eruptions included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (Methods)
Fig. 1 Political and environmental setting with volcanic forcing history. a Eastern Mediterranean wet season rainfall (taking as example the December mean, mm, 1950–2000, at 30 arc-seconds resolution, worldclim.org, v1.4)66, indicative of Ptolemaic and Seleukid territories potentially capable of rainfed agriculture, with state boundaries c.275 BCE overlain: Ptolemaic (black line with diagonal dashes) and Seleukid (thick gray dashes)67. Key territories contested by these states are numbered with red Arabic numerals alongside indicative rectangles (1, Cyrenaica; 2, ‘Koile’ Syria; 3, Cyprus; 4, Lycia; 5, Caria) and are observed to focus on regions potentially capable of rainfed agriculture. Selected urban power bases are located with Roman numerals ((i), Babylon; (ii), Antioch; (iii), Seleukia; (iv), Alexandria; (v), Memphis; (vi), Thebes). b Ice-core-indicated dates of maximum aerosol forcing from volcanic eruptions with time-integrated (i.e., cumulative (Methods section)) forcing estimates for the Northern Hemisphere, 400 BCE to the present27. CMIP5 eruptions are those five twentieth century eruptions included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (Methods)CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 2 Response of the Nile to explosive volcanism. a CMIP5 ensemble mean precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) response to five 20th century volcanic eruptions (color shading, mm per day). The response is the average P–E over the first summer season (May–October) that contained or followed the eruption, relative to the five summers preceding the eruption. Only anomalies statistically significant at the 5% level are shown (Methods section). Blue contour is the 2 mm per day isoline of P–E. b As in a but showing the Nile watershed, which is outlined in green, with major Nile watercourses shown by thin blue lines. c Annual Nile summer flood heights from the Islamic Nilometer composited relative to the ice-core-estimated dates of eruption years for 60 large eruptions (Methods section) between 622 and 1902 CE (eruption years are represented at point 0 on the horizontal axis; years 1 to 8 then represent the first to eighth years after these eruptions, and years −1 to −8 the first to eighth years before). Data associated with secondary eruptions within this compositing window are excluded (Methods section). Shading indicates the 2-tailed 90% confidence interval, estimated using the t-distribution. Nile summer flood heights average 22 cm lower in eruption years (P < 0.01). d Annual Nile summer flood heights from the Islamic Nilometer ranked by percentile for eruption years (red; N = 61 (Methods section)) and non-eruption years (black; N = 1030). Gray shading indicates the 2-tailed Monte Carlo 90% confidence interval based on 1,000,000 draws from the non-eruption-year distribution. The blue line indicates the 1-tailed P-value for each of 61 ranks, when tested independently without accounting for multiple tests. e Annual Nile flood quality index for the Ptolemaic period, 305–30 BCE (Methods section)29, ordered by percentile for eruption years (red; N = 8) and non-eruption years (black; N = 88). High flood quality index values equate to documentary indications of high summer floods
Fig. 2 Response of the Nile to explosive volcanism. a CMIP5 ensemble mean precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) response to five 20th century volcanic eruptions (color shading, mm per day). The response is the average P–E over the first summer season (May–October) that contained or followed the eruption, relative to the five summers preceding the eruption. Only anomalies statistically significant at the 5% level are shown (Methods section). Blue contour is the 2 mm per day isoline of P–E. b As in a but showing the Nile watershed, which is outlined in green, with major Nile watercourses shown by thin blue lines. c Annual Nile summer flood heights from the Islamic Nilometer composited relative to the ice-core-estimated dates of eruption years for 60 large eruptions (Methods section) between 622 and 1902 CE (eruption years are represented at point 0 on the horizontal axis; years 1 to 8 then represent the first to eighth years after these eruptions, and years −1 to −8 the first to eighth years before). Data associated with secondary eruptions within this compositing window are excluded (Methods section). Shading indicates the 2-tailed 90% confidence interval, estimated using the t-distribution. Nile summer flood heights average 22 cm lower in eruption years (P < 0.01). d Annual Nile summer flood heights from the Islamic Nilometer ranked by percentile for eruption years (red; N = 61 (Methods section)) and non-eruption years (black; N = 1030). Gray shading indicates the 2-tailed Monte Carlo 90% confidence interval based on 1,000,000 draws from the non-eruption-year distribution. The blue line indicates the 1-tailed P-value for each of 61 ranks, when tested independently without accounting for multiple tests. e Annual Nile flood quality index for the Ptolemaic period, 305–30 BCE (Methods section)29, ordered by percentile for eruption years (red; N = 8) and non-eruption years (black; N = 88). High flood quality index values equate to documentary indications of high summer floodsCC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 3 Response to volcanism in Egyptian social indexes. a Dates of the initiation of internal revolts against Ptolemaic rule composited relative to the dates of 16 volcanic eruptions (represented at year 0 on the horizontal axes; years 1–8 then represent the first to eighth years after these eruptions, and years −1 to −8 the first to eighth years before), excluding an 8-year buffer at the start and end of our 305–30 BCE period (Methods section). Dots indicates statistically significant values estimated using Barnard’s exact test (green: P < 0.05, red: P < 0.01, magenta: P < 0.001). Green dashed lines give the 95% confidence threshold also estimated using Barnard’s exact test. Data associated with any secondary eruptions within the compositing window are excluded (Methods section), and remaining data expressed as a fraction of all records to prevent bias. b Same as a, but for the dates of terminations of the “Syrian Wars”, i.e., wars between the Ptolemaic and Seleukid states. c Same as a, but for priestly decrees. d Same as a, but for Demotic language land sales with significance estimated using the 2-sample student’s t-test. Revolt onset dates N = 10; Syrian Wars N = 9; decrees N = 9; land sales N = 84. Eruption years N = 18, and non-eruption years N = 258 (305–30 BCE)
Fig. 3 Response to volcanism in Egyptian social indexes. a Dates of the initiation of internal revolts against Ptolemaic rule composited relative to the dates of 16 volcanic eruptions (represented at year 0 on the horizontal axes; years 1–8 then represent the first to eighth years after these eruptions, and years −1 to −8 the first to eighth years before), excluding an 8-year buffer at the start and end of our 305–30 BCE period (Methods section). Dots indicates statistically significant values estimated using Barnard’s exact test (green: P < 0.05, red: P < 0.01, magenta: P < 0.001). Green dashed lines give the 95% confidence threshold also estimated using Barnard’s exact test. Data associated with any secondary eruptions within the compositing window are excluded (Methods section), and remaining data expressed as a fraction of all records to prevent bias. b Same as a, but for the dates of terminations of the “Syrian Wars”, i.e., wars between the Ptolemaic and Seleukid states. c Same as a, but for priestly decrees. d Same as a, but for Demotic language land sales with significance estimated using the 2-sample student’s t-test. Revolt onset dates N = 10; Syrian Wars N = 9; decrees N = 9; land sales N = 84. Eruption years N = 18, and non-eruption years N = 258 (305–30 BCE)CC BY · PubMed Central

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Cites

Show all 65 references

Research works printed but not linked: 8

  1. Butzer, K. Early Hydraulic Civilization in Egypt (University of Chicago Press, 1976).
  2. Lewis, M. J. T. Millstone and Hammer: The Origins of Water Power (University of Hull Press, 1997).
  3. Mayerson, P., Three pharaonic crops in Ptolemaic Egypt: Ólura (Emmer wheat) and maslins of krithópuron and olurókrithon. Z. Papyrologie Epigraphik 141, 210-213 (2002).
  4. Christensen, J. H. et al. in Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex & P.M. Midgley) (Cambridge University Press, 2013).
  5. Hölbl, G. A History of the Ptolemaic Empire (Routledge, 2001).
  6. Holdaway, S. & Phillips, R. in Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Agriculture and the Environment (ed. Hazlett, R.) 1–34 (Oxford University Press, 2016).
  7. Hassan, F. in Historical Ecology: Cultural Knowledge and Changing Landscapes (ed. Crumley, C. L.) 155–181 (School of American Research Press, 1994).
  8. Thompson, D. J. in Agriculture in Egypt: From Pharaonic to Modern Times (eds Bowman, A. K. & Rogan, E.) (Oxford University Press, 1999).

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Metadata

Authors
Manning, J. G., Ludlow, F., Stine, A. R., Boos, W. R., Sigl, M., & Marlon, J. R.
Affiliations
  • Yale University (US)
  • Trinity College Dublin (IE)
  • San Francisco State University (US)
  • Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
  • University of Bern (CH)
Corresponding author
Ludlow, Francis
ORCID
Venue
Nature Communications
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2017-10-17
Volume
8
Issue
1
Pages
900-900
ISSN
2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s41467-017-00957-y
PMC
PMC5645420
OpenAlex
W2761620976
Cited by
184
References
65
Citations by year
2026: 8 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 39 · 2022: 35 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 13
FWCI
6.34
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Arrow@dit (Dublin Institute of Technology) (acceptedVersion)
  • DORA PSI (Paul Scherrer Institute) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
  • Trinity's Access to Research Output (TARA) (Trinity College Dublin) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (1437074, 1405053)
  • Yale University
  • Past Global Changes
  • Trinity College Dublin
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology (arts and humanities) › Ancient Egypt and Archaeology
  • Social Sciences › Archeology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
Keywords
volcanic eruptions, African monsoon, Ptolemaic Egypt, interstate conflict, abrupt climate change, ancient Egypt
MeSH terms
Egypt, Ancient, Climate, Conflict, Psychological, Geography, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Rain, Seasons, Warfare, Volcanic Eruptions, Rivers, History, Ancient, Floods

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