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Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest
Open accessAbstract
Power system reliability is sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demand and water availability, yet the combined effect of these impacts is rarely evaluated. Here we show that combined climate change impacts on loads and hydropower generation may have a transformative effect on the nature and seasonality of power shortfall risk in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Under climate change, potential shortfall events occur more readily, but are significantly less severe in nature. A seasonal reversal in shortfall risk occurs: winter shortfalls are eradicated due to reduced building heating demands, while summer shortfalls multiply as increased peak loads for day-time cooling coincide with impaired hydropower generation. Many of these summer shortfalls go unregistered when climate change impacts on loads and hydropower dispatch are analyzed in isolation—highlighting an important role of compound events.
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Cites
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052
Impact of climate change heating and cooling energy use in buildings in the United States
Wang, H., & Chen, Q. (2014) · Energy and Buildings · doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.07.034 · Cited by 364
Cited by
Lawrance, E. L., Thompson, R., Newberry Le Vay, J., Page, L., & Jennings, N. (2022) · International Review of Psychiatry · doi:10.1080/09540261.2022.2128725 · Cited by 500
Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts
Hao, Z., Hao, F., Xia, Y., Feng, S., Sun, C., Zhang, X., Fu, Y., Hao, Y., Zhang, Y., & Meng, Y. (2022) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104241 · Cited by 313
Recent progress in non-native nucleic acid modifications
McKenzie, L. K., El-Khoury, R., Thorpe, J. D., Damha, M. J., & Hollenstein, M. (2021) · Chemical Society Reviews · doi:10.1039/d0cs01430c · Cited by 300
Resilience of renewable power systems under climate risks
Xu, L., Feng, K., Lin, N., Perera, A. T. D., Poor, H. V., Xie, L., Ji, C., Sun, X. A., Guo, Q., & O’Malley, M. (2024) · Nature Reviews Electrical Engineering · doi:10.1038/s44287-023-00003-8 · Cited by 293
Metadata
- Authors
- Turner, S. W. D., Voisin, N., Fazio, J., Hua, D., & Jourabchi, M.
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2019-01-02
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 8-8
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2907700981
- Cited by
- 196
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 19.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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- Turner, S. W. D., Voisin, N., Fazio, J., Hua, D., & Jourabchi, M. (2019). Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest. Nature Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07894-4
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