The DOI matches its Crossref record; 30 of the 30 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Uncertainty in ensembles of global biodiversity scenarios
Open accessAbstract
While there is a clear demand for scenarios that provide alternative states in biodiversity with respect to future emissions, a thorough analysis and communication of the associated uncertainties is still missing. Here, we modelled the global distribution of ~11,500 amphibian, bird and mammal species and project their climatic suitability into the time horizon 2050 and 2070, while varying the input data used. By this, we explore the uncertainties originating from selecting species distribution models (SDMs), dispersal strategies, global circulation models (GCMs), and representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We demonstrate the overwhelming influence of SDMs and RCPs on future biodiversity projections, followed by dispersal strategies and GCMs. The relative importance of each component varies in space but also with the selected sensitivity metrics and with species’ range size. Overall, this means using multiple SDMs, RCPs, dispersal assumptions and GCMs is a necessity in any biodiversity scenario assessment, to explicitly report associated uncertainties.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., et al. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z · Cited by 7,741
ALLOUCHE, O., TSOAR, A., & KADMON, R. (2006) · Journal of Applied Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x · Cited by 5,172
Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas
Karger, D. N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Kawohl, T., Kreft, H., Soria-Auza, R. W., Zimmermann, N. E., Linder, H. P., & Kessler, M. (2017) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/sdata.2017.122 · Cited by 4,171
Self-citationEnsemble forecasting of species distributions
ARAUJO, M., & NEW, M. (2007) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.010 · Cited by 3,640
Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas
Karger, D. N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Kawohl, T., Kreft, H., Soria-Auza, R. W., Zimmermann, N. E., Linder, H. P., & Kessler, M. (2017) · Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) · doi:10.5167/uzh-139381 · Cited by 3,598
Self-citationBIOMOD – a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions
Thuiller, W., Lafourcade, B., Engler, R., & Araújo, M. B. (2009) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.x · Cited by 2,749
Self-citationScenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century
Pereira, H. M., Leadley, P. W., Proença, V., Alkemade, R., Scharlemann, J. P. W., Fernandez-Manjarrés, J. F., Araújo, M. B., Balvanera, P., Biggs, R., Cheung, W. W. L., et al. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1196624 · Cited by 2,077
Giorgetta, M. A., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C. H., Legutke, S., Bader, J., Böttinger, M., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., et al. (2013) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1002/jame.20038 · Cited by 1,666
Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity
Watanabe, M., Suzuki, T., O’ishi, R., Komuro, Y., Watanabe, S., Emori, S., Takemura, T., Chikira, M., Ogura, T., Sekiguchi, M., et al. (2010) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2010jcli3679.1 · Cited by 1,333
How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?
Dyderski, M. K., Paź, S., Frelich, L. E., & Jagodziński, A. M. (2018) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13925 · Cited by 929
Cited by
Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S. H. M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F. A. J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J. C., Dürauer, M., et al. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y · Cited by 922
Metadata
- Authors
- Thuiller, W., Guéguen, M., Renaud, J., Karger, D. N., & Zimmermann, N. E.
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2019-03-29
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1446-1446
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2928474513
- Cited by
- 513
- References
- 30
- FWCI
- 64.34
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Uncertainty in ensembles of global biodiversity scenarios. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1038/s41467-019-09519-w
- The paper
- Thuiller, W., Guéguen, M., Renaud, J., Karger, D. N., & Zimmermann, N. E. (2019). Uncertainty in ensembles of global biodiversity scenarios. Nature Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09519-w
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
