Reductions in commuting mobility correlate with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City
Open accessAbstract
SARS-CoV-2-related mortality and hospitalizations differ substantially between New York City neighborhoods. Mitigation efforts require knowing the extent to which these disparities reflect differences in prevalence and understanding the associated drivers. Here, we report the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City boroughs inferred using tests administered to 1,746 pregnant women hospitalized for delivery between March 22nd and May 3rd, 2020. We also assess the relationship between prevalence and commuting-style movements into and out of each borough. Prevalence ranged from 11.3% (95% credible interval [8.9%, 13.9%]) in Manhattan to 26.0% (15.3%, 38.9%) in South Queens, with an estimated city-wide prevalence of 15.6% (13.9%, 17.4%). Prevalence was lowest in boroughs with the greatest reductions in morning movements out of and evening movements into the borough (Pearson R = −0.88 [−0.52, −0.99]). Widespread testing is needed to further specify disparities in prevalence and assess the risk of future outbreaks.
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The mobility result is consistent with analyses of New York City neighborhoods and with findings from other studies conducted in Santiago that used different socioeconomic and mobility metrics.
“Our result is consistent with analyses of New York City neighborhoods (11) and with findings from other studies conducted in Santiago that used different socioeconomic and mobility metrics (12–14).”
From Socioeconomic status determines COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in Santiago, Chile (2021) · cites this paper as [11]
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References 10 · Cited by 129
- Authors
- Kissler, S. M., Kishore, N., Prabhu, M., Goffman, D., Beilin, Y., Landau, R., Gyamfi-Bannerman, C., Bateman, B. T., Snyder, J., Razavi, A. S., Katz, D., Gal, J., Bianco, A., Stone, J., Larremore, D., Buckee, C. O., & Grad, Y. H.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Weill Cornell Medicine (US)
- Columbia University Irving Medical Center (US)
- Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai (US)
- Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
- University of Colorado Boulder (US)
- Corresponding author
- Grad, Yonatan H.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2020-09-16
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 4674-4674
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3021302537
- Cited by
- 129
- References
- 10
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 31 · 2021: 41 · 2020: 12
- FWCI
- 3.97
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Apollo (cc-by)
- Funders
- Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2 prevalence, COVID-19 pandemic, geographic disparities, New York City boroughs, pregnant women, hospital birth, spatial transmission, COVID-19 testing, outbreak risk
- MeSH terms
- Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Testing, Adolescent, Adult, Female, Humans, Middle Aged, New York City, Pneumonia, Viral, Residence Characteristics, Transportation, Prevalence, Coronavirus Infections, Clinical Laboratory Techniques, Pregnant People, Pregnant Women, Health Status Disparities, Young Adult, Pandemics
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