Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement
Open accessAbstract
Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions or neutrality targets. However, most of the information on emissions neutrality (such as timing) is provided for the global level. Here, we look at national-level neutrality-years based on globally cost-effective 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios from integrated assessment models. These results indicate that domestic net zero greenhouse gas and CO 2 emissions in Brazil and the USA are reached a decade earlier than the global average, and in India and Indonesia later than global average. These results depend on choices like the accounting of land-use emissions. The results also show that carbon storage and afforestation capacity, income, share of non-CO 2 emissions, and transport sector emissions affect the variance in projected phase-out years across countries. We further compare these results to an alternative approach, using equity-based rules to establish target years. These results can inform policymakers on net-zero targets.
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Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with far greater global warming potential than carbon dioxide.
“Biogas production is crucial in this context, especially for efficiently mitigating methane emissions, a potent greenhouse gas with far greater global warming potential than carbon dioxide [101,167].”
From Anaerobic digestion of agricultural waste for biogas production and sustainable bioenergy recovery: a review (2024) · cites this paper as [167]
The Results section (‘Breakdown of emissions in the phase-out year’; page unavailable) identifies methane (CH4) as a greenhouse gas, and ‘The influence of definitions’ discusses applying global warming potentials to CH4 and CO2. Neither passage states that methane’s global warming potential is far greater than CO2’s. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredBiogas production is crucial for efficiently mitigating methane emissions.
“Biogas production is crucial in this context, especially for efficiently mitigating methane emissions, a potent greenhouse gas with far greater global warming potential than carbon dioxide [101,167].”
From Anaerobic digestion of agricultural waste for biogas production and sustainable bioenergy recovery: a review (2024) · cites this paper as [167]
The Results sections on emissions at phase-out and on definitions discuss methane emissions and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, respectively. Neither the supplied passages nor searches for biogas production and methane mitigation address whether producing biogas efficiently mitigates methane emissions. (LLM, conf=0.75)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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Alengebawy, A., Ran, Y., Osman, A. I., Jin, K., Samer, M., & Ai, P. (2024) · Environmental Chemistry Letters · doi:10.1007/s10311-024-01789-1 · Cited by 247 · see citing works
“Biogas production is crucial in this context, especially for efficiently mitigating methane emissions, a potent green-house gas with far greater global warming potential than carbon dioxide [101, 167].”
- Authors
- van Soest, H. L., den Elzen, M. G. J., & van Vuuren, D. P.
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2021-04-09
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 2140-2140
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8035189
- OpenAlex
- W3142397881
- Cited by
- 568
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 65 · 2025: 132 · 2024: 128 · 2023: 100 · 2022: 109 · 2021: 33 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 70.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- VU Research Portal (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- European Commission (340201/2017/764007/SER/CLIMA.C1)
- EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (642147)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- net-zero targets, Paris Agreement, integrated assessment models, non-CO2 emissions, transport emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, Brazil, India, Indonesia
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