Forest-rainfall cascades buffer against drought across the Amazon
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The Amazon forest contributes up to 50% of rainfall in the region and is crucial for moisture supply across South America.
“The forest contributes up to 50% of rainfall in the region and is crucial for moisture supply across South America4, allowing other biomes and economic activities to thrive in regions that would otherwise be more arid, such as the Pantanal wetlands and the La Plata river basin1.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [4]
The supplied passages are bibliographic metadata, and searches for “50% of rainfall,” “moisture supply,” and rainfall recycling did not surface a substantive passage from the paper’s body. Our accessible copy therefore cannot verify the 50% figure or the claim about moisture supply across South America. (LLM, conf=0.70)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe difference between both ensembles is possibly related to the forest-rainfall feedback included in the five coupled models, which increases total annual rainfall and therefore the stable forest area along the southern Amazon, but only when deforestation is not included in the simulations.
“The difference between both ensembles is possibly related to the forest–rainfall feedback included in the five coupled models, which increases total annual rainfall and therefore the stable forest area along the southern Amazon, but only when deforestation is not included in the simulations4,37.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [4]
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 2 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIncreases in tree water-use efficiency may reduce forest transpiration and consequently atmospheric moisture flow across the Amazon, potentially reducing forest resilience in the southwest of the biome.
“Moreover, increases in tree water-use efficiency may reduce forest transpiration and consequently atmospheric moisture flow across the Amazon53,56, potentially reducing forest resilience in the southwest of the biome4,37.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [4]
The available passages are bibliographic metadata, not substantive text from the paper (no section or page is given). Searches for water-use efficiency, transpiration, atmospheric moisture flow, and southwestern Amazon resilience returned no passage addressing the attributed claim. (LLM, conf=0.72)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the Amazon, atmospheric moisture flow westward is an important source of connectivity enhancing forest resilience, partly maintained by forest evapotranspiration.
“In the Amazon, an important source of connectivity enhancing forest resilience is atmospheric moisture flow westward (Fig. 2), partly maintained by forest evapotranspiration4,37,67.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [4]
The available passages contain the paper’s title and bibliographic metadata, but no substantive text establishing westward moisture flow, its contribution to forest resilience, or its maintenance by evapotranspiration. Searches for those terms and for moisture recycling returned only metadata, so this claim cannot be assessed from the available copy. (LLM, conf=0.70)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAnother study using a climate-vegetation model found that with accumulated deforestation of 30−50%, rainfall in non-deforested areas downwind would decline by 40%, potentially causing more forest loss.
“Another study using a climate-vegetation model found that with accumulated deforestation of 30−50%, rainfall in non-deforested areas downwind would decline67 by 40% (ref. 67), potentially causing more forest loss4,37.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [4]
The passages available from our copy are bibliographic and repository information, not the study’s findings; none reports the claimed 30–50% deforestation scenario or a 40% rainfall decline in non-deforested areas downwind. Searches for those figures and for downwind rainfall returned no relevant passage. The potential for further forest loss is attached to different citations in the citing sentence. (LLM, conf=0.74)
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Cites
Biomass resilience of Neotropical secondary forests
Poorter, L., Bongers, F., Aide, T. M., Almeyda Zambrano, A. M., Balvanera, P., Becknell, J. M., Boukili, V., Brancalion, P. H. S., Broadbent, E. N., Chazdon, R. L., et al. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature16512 · Cited by 1,210 · see citing works
Nepstad, D. C., Stickler, C. M., Filho, B. S., & Merry, F. (2008) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2007.0036 · Cited by 725 · see citing works
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Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries
Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S. E., Donges, J. F., Drüke, M., Fetzer, I., Bala, G., von Bloh, W., et al. (2023) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adh2458 · Cited by 3,311 · see citing works
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abn7950 · Cited by 1,931 · see citing works
“The Amazon forest re-cycles around a third of the Amazon basin ’ s rainfall on average ( 76 ) and up to ~70% in parts of the basin ( 77 ), particularly during the critical dry season as the forest maintains transpiration fluxes ( 76 ).”
Self-citationAmazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change
Gatti, L. V., Basso, L. S., Miller, J. B., Gloor, M., Gatti Domingues, L., Cassol, H. L. G., Tejada, G., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Nobre, C., Peters, W., et al. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03629-6 · Cited by 1,081 · see citing works
Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system
Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0 · Cited by 607 · see citing works
Self-citationA planetary boundary for green water
Wang-Erlandsson, L., Tobian, A., van der Ent, R. J., Fetzer, I., te Wierik, S., Porkka, M., Staal, A., Jaramillo, F., Dahlmann, H., Singh, C., et al. (2022) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-022-00287-8 · Cited by 366 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Fate of Land Evaporation—A Global Dataset
Link, A., van der Ent, R., Berger, M., Eisner, S., & Finkbeiner, M. (2020) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-12-1897-2020 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Health benefits of reduced deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon
Damm, Y., Börner, J., Gerber, N., & Soares-Filho, B. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01840-7 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
- Authors
- Staal, A., Tuinenburg, O. A., Bosmans, J. H. C., Holmgren, M., van Nes, E. H., Scheffer, M., Zemp, D. C., & Dekker, S. C.
- Affiliations
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Staal, Arie
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2018-05-28
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 539-543
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W2804089729
- Cited by
- 409
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 53 · 2025: 71 · 2024: 57 · 2023: 63 · 2022: 61 · 2021: 51 · 2020: 26 · 2019: 18 · 2018: 9
- FWCI
- 14.65
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- research.wur.nl
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- DSpace (Open University in the Netherlands) (publishedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion)
- DSpace (Open University in the Netherlands) (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission (HORIZON2020, 643073)
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (IRTG 1740/TRP 2011/50151-0, 1740/TRP 2011/50151-0, IRTG1740, TRP 2011/50151-0, 643073)
- Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (11/50151-0)
- Netherlands Earth System Science Centre
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Keywords
- transpiration, Amazon rainfall, drought buffering, deforestation, forest resilience, Amazon basin
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