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Cited by 523Hybrid Renewable Energy SystemsClimate Change Policy and EconomicsIntegrated Energy Systems Optimization

The green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap

Open access
Odenweller, Adrian, Ueckerdt, Falko·2025·Nature Energy
DOI 10.1038/s41560-024-01684-7
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Abstract

Green hydrogen is critical for decarbonizing hard-to-electrify sectors, but it faces high costs and investment risks. Here we define and quantify the green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap, showing that meeting hydrogen expectations will remain challenging despite surging announcements of projects and subsidies. Tracking 190 projects over 3 years, we identify a wide 2023 implementation gap with only 7% of global capacity announcements finished on schedule. In contrast, the 2030 ambition gap towards 1.5 °C scenarios has been gradually closing as the announced project pipeline has nearly tripled to 422 GW within 3 years. However, we estimate that, without carbon pricing, realizing all these projects would require global subsidies of US$1.3 trillion (US$0.8–2.6 trillion range), far exceeding announced subsidies. Given past and future implementation gaps, policymakers must prepare for prolonged green hydrogen scarcity. Policy support needs to secure hydrogen investments, but should focus on applications where hydrogen is indispensable.

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  • Large-scale adoption of hydrogen-based long-duration storage, comprising electrolyzers, caverns, and hydrogen turbines for reconversion, will likely have long lead times because of supply chain and permitting bottlenecks.

    “Importantly, large-scale adoption of hydrogen-based long-duration storage, comprising electrolyzers, caverns, and hydrogen turbines for reconversion, will likely have long lead times because of supply chain and permitting bottlenecks100,101.”

    From Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe (2026) · cites this paper as [101]

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Research works printed but not linked: 27

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Authors
Odenweller, A., & Ueckerdt, F.
Affiliations
Leibniz Association (DE)
Corresponding author
Odenweller, Adrian
ORCID
Venue
Nature Energy
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2025-01-14
Volume
10
Issue
1
Pages
110-123
ISSN
2058-7546 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s41560-024-01684-7
OpenAlex
W4406374649
Cited by
523
References
1
Citations by year
2026: 351 · 2025: 171 · 2024: 1
FWCI
84.71
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Energy (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • arXiv (Cornell University) (cc-by)
Funders
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (03SFK5A0-2, 333151, 03SFK5A)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Energy › Energy Engineering and Power Technology › Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
Keywords
green hydrogen, implementation gap, project delays, subsidies, carbon pricing, decarbonization, hard-to-electrify sectors, hydrogen investment, energy policy

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