The DOI matches its Crossref record; 114 of the 114 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era
Open accessAbstract
Multidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 across the Common Era. A substantial portion of pre-industrial (1300–1800 ce) variability at multidecadal timescales is attributed to volcanic aerosol forcing. Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades. Multidecadal global-mean temperature fluctuations over the past 2,000 years are consistent in comprehensive climate reconstructions and model simulations, and volcanic eruptions had the most important influence at that timescale between 1300 and 1800 CE.
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Cites
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Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales
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Self-citationIncreased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening
Bonnet, R., Swingedouw, D., Gastineau, G., Boucher, O., Deshayes, J., Hourdin, F., Mignot, J., Servonnat, J., & Sima, A. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-26370-0 · Cited by 68
Metadata
- Authors
- PAGES 2k Consortium, Neukom, R., Barboza, L. A., Erb, M. P., Shi, F., Emile-Geay, J., Evans, M. N., Franke, J., Kaufman, D. S., Lücke, L., Rehfeld, K., Schurer, A., Zhu, F., Brönnimann, S., Hakim, G. J., Henley, B. J., Ljungqvist, F. C., McKay, N., Valler, V., & von Gunten, L.
- Venue
- Nature Geoscience
- Published
- 2019-07-24
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 643-649
- ISSN
- 1752-0894 (ISSN-L)
- 1752-0908
- OpenAlex
- W2966446996
- Cited by
- 447
- References
- 114
- FWCI
- 22.56
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- PAGES 2k Consortium, Neukom, R., Barboza, L. A., Erb, M. P., Shi, F., Emile-Geay, J., Evans, M. N., Franke, J., Kaufman, D. S., Lücke, L., Rehfeld, K., Schurer, A., Zhu, F., Brönnimann, S., Hakim, G. J., Henley, B. J., Ljungqvist, F. C., McKay, N., Valler, V., & von Gunten, L. (2019). Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era. Nature Geoscience. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0400-0
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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