The missing risks of climate change
Open accessAbstract
The risks of climate change are enormous, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions to billions of people. The economic consequences of many of the complex risks associated with climate change cannot, however, currently be quantified. Here we argue that these unquantified, poorly understood and often deeply uncertain risks can and should be included in economic evaluations and decision-making processes. We present an overview of these unquantified risks and an ontology of them founded on the reasons behind their lack of robust evaluation. These consist of risks missing owing to delays in sharing knowledge and expertise across disciplines, spatial and temporal variations of climate impacts, feedbacks and interactions between risks, deep uncertainty in our knowledge, and currently unidentified risks. We highlight collaboration needs within and between the natural and social science communities to address these gaps. We also provide an approach for integrating assessments or speculations of these risks in a way that accounts for interdependencies, avoids double counting and makes assumptions clear. Multiple paths exist for engaging with these missing risks, with both model-based quantification and non-model-based qualitative assessments playing crucial roles. A wide range of climate impacts are understudied or challenging to quantify, and are missing from current evaluations of the climate risks to lives and livelihoods. Strong interdisciplinary collaboration and deeper engagement with uncertainty is needed to properly inform policymakers and the public about climate risks.
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Connecting displacement and climate or environmental hazards is complex due to multiple environmental and climatic influences, coarse spatial and temporal resolution of data, and assessment models missing feedbacks among socioeconomic and climate systems.
“Connecting displacement and climate or environmental hazards is a complex task due to a multitude of environmental and climatic influences that impact the ability to stay in one place, 253 to the relatively coarse spatial and temporal resolution of currently available data sets, 254 and because current assessment models miss the feedbacks among the socioeconomic and climate systems.255”
From NPCC4: Advancing climate justice in climate adaptation strategies for New York City (2024) · cites this paper as [255]
The focus on heat and cold mortality reflects its strong empirical grounding and perceived significance, in contrast to pathways through extreme weather events that are more uncertain and to a degree unknowable.
“Their focus on this particular pathway reflects its strong empirical grounding and perceived significance37,38 – in contrast to pathways through extreme weather events that are more uncertain and, to a certain degree, unknowable.40”
From Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century (2024) · cites this paper as [40]
The broader impacts of climate change, including morbidity and mortality over the medium to long term, remain deeply uncertain, reflecting complex relationships between highly interdependent biophysical and social systems.
“However, the broader impacts of climate change—including morbidity and mortality over the medium to long term—remain deeply uncertain, reflecting complex relationships between highly interdependent biophysical and social systems.40”
From Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century (2024) · cites this paper as [40]
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References 68 · Cited by 310
Research works printed but not linked: 6
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- Masson-Delmotte, V. et al. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis : Summary for Policymakers. (Cambridge University Press, 2021).
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- Authors
- Rising, J., Tedesco, M., Piontek, F., & Stainforth, D. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Delaware (US)
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US)
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- University of Warwick (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Rising, James
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2022-10-26
- Volume
- 610
- Issue
- 7933
- Pages
- 643-651
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W4307843299
- Cited by
- 310
- References
- 68
- Citations by year
- 2026: 89 · 2025: 101 · 2024: 59 · 2023: 57 · 2022: 4
- FWCI
- 10.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- Warwick Research Archive Portal (University of Warwick) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- London School of Economics and Political Science
- European Commission (776608)
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR-19-AXIS-0001)
- Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1904A)
- Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, University of Leeds (ES/R009708/1)
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science (ES/R009708/1)
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/R009708/1)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/V011790/1)
- Agencia Estatal de Investigación
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- climate risk, deep uncertainty, interdisciplinary collaboration, unknown risks, qualitative risk assessment, climate policy decision-making
- MeSH terms
- Climate Models, Humans, Natural Science Disciplines, Policy Making, Social Sciences, Risk Assessment, Models, Economic, Uncertainty, Climate Change
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