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Cited by 51Malaria Research and ControlSpecies Distribution and Climate ChangeMosquito-borne diseases and control

Spatial distribution and ecological niche modeling of geographical spread of Anopheles gambiae complex in Nigeria using real time data

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Adeogun, Adedapo, Babalola, Ayodele Samuel, Okoko, Okefu Oyale, Oyeniyi, Tolulope, Omotayo, Ahmed, Izekor, Romoke Tawakalitu, Adetunji, Oluwakemi, Olakiigbe, Abiodun +28 more·2023·Scientific Reports
DOI 10.1038/s41598-023-40929-5PMC PMC10444803
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Abstract

The need for evidence-based data, to inform policy decisions on malaria vector control interventions in Nigeria, necessitated the establishment of mosquito surveillance sites in a few States in Nigeria. In order to make evidence-based-decisions, predictive studies using available data becomes imperative. We therefore predict the distribution of the major members of the Anopheles gambiae s.l. in Nigeria. Immature stages of Anopheles were collected from 72 study locations which span throughout the year 2020 resulted in the identification of over 60,000 Anopheline mosquitoes. Of these, 716 breeding sites were identified with the presence of one or more vector species from the An. gambiae complex and were subsequently used for modelling the potential geographical distribution of these important malaria vectors. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) distribution modeling was used to predict their potentially suitable vector habitats across Nigeria. A total of 23 environmental variables (19 bioclimatic and four topographic) were used in the model resulting in maps of the potential geographical distribution of three dominant vector species under current climatic conditions. Members of the An. gambiae complex dominated the collections (98%) with Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles coustani, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles moucheti, Anopheles nilli also present. An almost equal distribution of the two efficient vectors of malaria, An. gambiae and Anopheles coluzzii, were observed across the 12 states included in the survey. Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles coluzzii had almost equal, well distributed habitat suitability patterns with the latter having a slight range expansion. However, the central part of Nigeria (Abuja) and some highly elevated areas (Jos) in the savannah appear not suitable for the proliferation of these species. The most suitable habitat for Anopheles arabiensis was mainly in the South-west and North-east. The results of this study provide a baseline allowing decision makers to monitor the distribution of these species and establish a management plan for future national mosquito surveillance and control programs in Nigeria.

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  • Past and recent surveys in Delta and Anambra States have failed to detect An. arabiensis in field campaigns, except on very few occasions.

    “except on very few occasions [49–51], past and recent surveys in Delta and Anambra States have failed to detect An. arabiensis in field campaigns [14, 17, 52].”

    From Sibling species of the major malaria vector Anopheles gambiae display divergent preferences for aquatic breeding sites in southern Nigeria (2024) · cites this paper as [51]

    The Study area table (page unavailable) lists Delta among the states surveyed, and the Discussion describes An. arabiensis as having a restricted distribution in southern Nigeria. But Anambra was not among the surveyed states, and the text does not state that field campaigns failed to detect the species in either state or document the claimed pattern across past and recent surveys. (LLM, conf=0.72)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • An. stephensi possesses potential for rapid spatial distribution, demonstrated in East Africa where it was detected in five countries within 10 years and in West Africa where it was recently detected in Accra Ghana less than 3 years after the initial detection in northern Nigeria.

    “An. stephensi possesses potential for rapid spatial distribution. This has been demonstrated in East Africa, where the vector species was detected in five countries within a period of 10 years [68] and in West Africa, where it was recently detected in Accra Ghana [69], just less than 3 years after the initial detection in northern Nigeria [51].”

    From Sibling species of the major malaria vector Anopheles gambiae display divergent preferences for aquatic breeding sites in southern Nigeria (2024) · cites this paper as [51]

  • The Asian urban malaria vector An. stephensi invaded Africa in 2012 and has since been expanding its spatial range in the continent, with the most recent detections in the West Africa sub-region, first in 2020 in Gombe in northern Nigeria.

    “The Asian urban malaria vector An. stephensi invaded Africa in 2012 [67] and has since been expanding its spatial range in the continent [68], with the most recent detections of the vector made in the West Africa sub-region [51, 69], first in 2020 in Gombe in northern Nigeria [51].”

    From Sibling species of the major malaria vector Anopheles gambiae display divergent preferences for aquatic breeding sites in southern Nigeria (2024) · cites this paper as [51]

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Authors
Adeogun, A., Babalola, A. S., Okoko, O. O., Oyeniyi, T., Omotayo, A., Izekor, R. T., Adetunji, O., Olakiigbe, A., Olagundoye, O., Adeleke, M., Ojianwuna, C., Adamu, D., Daskum, A., Musa, J., Sambo, O., Adedayo, O., Inyama, P. U., Samdi, L., Obembe, A., Dogara, M., Kennedy, P., Mohammed, S., Samuel, R., Amajoh, C., Adesola, M., Bala, M., Esema, M., Omo-Eboh, M., Sinka, M., Idowu, O. A., Ande, A., Olayemi, I., Yayo, A., Uhomoibhi, P., Awolola, S., & Salako, B.
Affiliations
  • Nigerian Institute of Medical Research (NG)
  • Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta (NG)
  • Federal Ministry of Health (NG)
  • Osun State University (NG)
  • Yobe State University (NG)
  • Taraba State University (NG)
  • United States Agency for International Development (US)
  • Kwara State University (NG)
  • Federal University Dutse (NG)
  • Gombe State University (NG)
  • Umaru Musa Yar'adua University (NG)
  • Modibbo Adama University of Technology (NG)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • University of Ilorin (NG)
  • Federal University of Technology Minna (NG)
  • Bayero University Kano (NG)
Corresponding author
  • Adeogun, Adedapo
  • Babalola, Ayodele Samuel
  • Okoko, Okefu Oyale
  • Uhomoibhi, Perpetua
  • Awolola, Samson
  • Salako, Babatunde
ORCID
Venue
Scientific Reports
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2023-08-22
Volume
13
Issue
1
Pages
13679-13679
ISSN
2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s41598-023-40929-5
PMC
PMC10444803
OpenAlex
W4386069456
Cited by
51
References
4
Citations by year
2026: 14 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 1
FWCI
12.95
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (NGA-M-NMEP (No. 1907))
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
Keywords
Anopheles gambiae s.l., malaria vectors, species distribution modeling, ecological niche modeling, habitat suitability, Anopheles coluzzii, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles coustani, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles moucheti, mosquito breeding sites, mosquito surveillance, Nigeria
MeSH terms
Mosquito Vectors, Animals, Anopheles, Malaria, Nigeria, Ecosystem

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