Explainable machine learning model based on EEG, ECG, and clinical features for predicting neurological outcomes in cardiac arrest patient

Abstract

Early and accurate prediction of neurological outcomes in comatose patients following cardiac arrest is critical for informed clinical decision-making. Existing studies have predominantly focused on EEG for assessing brain injury, with some exploring ECG data. However, the integration of EEG, ECG, and clinical features remains insufficiently investigated, and its potential to enhance predictive accuracy has not been fully established. Moreover, the limited interpretability of current models poses significant barriers to clinical application. Using the I-CARE database, we analyzed EEG, ECG, and clinical data from comatose cardiac arrest patients. After rigorous preprocessing and feature engineering, machine learning models (Logistic Regression, SVM, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting) were developed. Performance was evaluated through AUC-ROC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, with SHAP applied to interpret feature contributions. Our multi-modal model outperformed single-modality models, achieving AUC values from 0.75 to 1.0. Notably, the model's accuracy peaked at a critical point within the 12-24 h window (e.g., 18 h, AUC = 1.0), surpassing EEG-only (AUC 0.7-0.8) and ECG-only (AUC < 0.6) models. SHAP identified Shockable Rhythm as the most influential feature (mean SHAP value 0.17), emphasizing its role in predictive accuracy. This study presents a novel multi-modal approach that significantly enhances early neurological outcome prediction in critical care. SHAP-based interpretability further supports clinical applicability, paving the way for more personalized patient management post-cardiac arrest.