Potential changes in skipjack tuna ( Katsuwonus pelamis ) habitat from a global warming scenario: modelling approach and preliminary results

Abstract

Recent studies suggest a reduction of primary production in the tropical oceans because of changes in oceanic circulation under global warming conditions caused by increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration. This might affect the productivity of medium and higher trophic levels with potential consequences on marine resources such as tropical tuna. Here we combine the projections of up‐to‐date climate and ocean biogeochemical models with recent concepts of representation of fish habitat based on prey abundance and ambient temperature to gain some insight into the impact of climate change on skipjack tuna ( Katsuwonus pelamis ), the species that dominates present‐day tuna catch. For a world with doubled atmospheric CO 2 concentration, our results suggest significant large‐scale changes of skipjack habitat in the equatorial Pacific. East of the date line, conditions could be improved by an extension of the present favourable habitat zones of the western equatorial Pacific, a feature reminiscent of warming conditions associated with El Niño events. Despite its simplicity and the associated underlying hypothesis, this first simulation is used to stress future research directions and key issues for modelling developments associated to global change.