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Forecasting plant migration rates: managing uncertainty for risk assessment
Open accessAbstract
Summary: Anthropogenic changes in the global climate are shifting the potential ranges of many plant species. Changing climates will allow some species the opportunity to expand their range, others may experience a contraction in their potential range, while the current and future ranges of some species may not overlap. Our capacity to generalize about the threat these range shifts pose to plant diversity is limited by many sources of uncertainty. In this paper we summarize sources of uncertainty for migration forecasts and suggest a research protocol for making forecasts in the context of uncertainty.
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Citations
Cited by
Equilibrium of species’ distributions with climate
Araújo, M. B., & Pearson, R. G. (2005) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/j.2005.0906-7590.04253.x · Cited by 665
Methods for estimating long‐distance dispersal
Nathan, R., Perry, G., Cronin, J. T., Strand, A. E., & Cain, M. L. (2003) · Oikos · doi:10.1034/j.1600-0706.2003.12146.x · Cited by 499
Self-citationEmpirical Analyses of Plant‐Climate Relationships for the Western United States
Rehfeldt, G. E., Crookston, N. L., Warwell, M. V., & Evans, J. S. (2006) · International Journal of Plant Sciences · doi:10.1086/507711 · Cited by 490
Modelling the effect of size on the aerial dispersal of microorganisms
Wilkinson, D. M., Koumoutsaris, S., Mitchell, E. A. D., & Bey, I. (2012) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02569.x · Cited by 272
Metadata
- Authors
- Higgins, S. I., Clark, J. S., Nathan, R., Hovestadt, T., Schurr, F., Fragoso, J. M. V., Aguiar, M. R., Ribbens, E., & Lavorel, S.
- Venue
- Journal of Ecology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2003-05-14
- Volume
- 91
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 341-347
- ISSN
- 0022-0477 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2745
- OpenAlex
- W1985829606
- Cited by
- 314
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 11.63
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- Higgins, S. I., Clark, J. S., Nathan, R., Hovestadt, T., Schurr, F., Fragoso, J. M. V., Aguiar, M. R., Ribbens, E., & Lavorel, S. (2003). Forecasting plant migration rates: managing uncertainty for risk assessment. Journal of Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2745.2003.00781.x
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
