A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century
Open accessAbstract
Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we conclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.
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Recent slowdowns in life expectancy improvements have been observed across many high-income countries.
“Recent slowdowns in life expectancy improvements have not been limited to the United States but have been observed across many high-income countries (2–4).”
From Insights into US life expectancy stagnation from birth cohort mortality dynamics (2026) · cites this paper as [2]
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References 41 · Cited by 2,612
- Authors
- Olshansky, S. J., Passaro, D. J., Hershow, R. C., Layden, J., Carnes, B. A., Brody, J., Hayflick, L., Butler, R. N., Allison, D. B., & Ludwig, D. S.
- Affiliations
- University of Illinois Chicago (US)
- University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center (US)
- University of California, San Francisco (US)
- International Longevity Centre (US)
- University of Alabama at Birmingham (US)
- Boston Children's Hospital (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- Massachusetts Medical Society
- Published
- 2005-03-17
- Volume
- 352
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1138-1145
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4406
- OpenAlex
- W2008266470
- Cited by
- 2,612
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 62 · 2021: 90 · 2020: 89 · 2019: 100 · 2018: 99 · 2017: 104 · 2016: 142 · 2015: 150 · 2014: 160 · 2013: 175 · 2012: 208
- FWCI
- 466.01
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (5k02ag000785-05, 5r01dk059240-04)
- National Institute on Aging (AG00979-05, K02 AG00785-05)
- National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (1R01 DK59240)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Keywords
- life expectancy, obesity, longevity, social security, Medicare, public policy, United States
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Communicable Diseases, Disease Outbreaks, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Life Expectancy, Longevity, Male, Obesity, Risk Factors, United States, Health Care Costs, Diabetes Complications
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