How Important is “Regression to the Mean” in Area-Based Crime Prevention Research?
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When crime rates are measured between two time periods, extreme cases may exhibit less extreme behavior during the second measurement, suggesting the intervention/program was successful when it was not.
“Consequently, when crime rates are measured between two time periods, extreme cases may exhibit less extreme behavior during the second measurement, suggesting the intervention/program was successful when it was not (Farrington & Welsh, 2006;Galton, 1886;Ratcliffe et al., 2011;Twisk & De Vente, 2008).”
From ‘Led by Intelligence': A Scoping Review on the Experimental Evaluation of Intelligence-Led Policing (2024) · cites this paper as Farrington & Welsh, 2006
Cites
Randomized experiments in criminology: what have we learned in the last two decades?
Farrington, D. P., & Welsh, B. C. (2005) · Journal of Experimental Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11292-004-6460-0 · Cited by 297 · see citing works
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‘Led by Intelligence': A Scoping Review on the Experimental Evaluation of Intelligence-Led Policing
Khalfa, R., & Hardyns, W. (2024) · Evaluation Review · doi:10.1177/0193841x231204588 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
- Authors
- Farrington, D. P., & Welsh, B. C.
- Affiliations
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- University of Massachusetts Lowell (US)
- Corresponding author
- Farrington, David P
- Venue
- Crime Prevention and Community Safety
- Published
- 2006-02
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 50-60
- ISSN
- 1460-3780 (ISSN-L)
- 1743-4629
- OpenAlex
- W2082070774
- Cited by
- 13
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2023: 1 · 2020: 1 · 2016: 1 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 6.97
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Crime Prevention and Community Safety (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
- Keywords
- regression to the mean, street lighting, England and Wales
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