Dynamics of origination and extinction in the marine fossil record
Open accessAbstract
The discipline-wide effort to database the fossil record at the occurrence level has made it possible to estimate marine invertebrate extinction and origination rates with much greater accuracy. The new data show that two biotic mechanisms have hastened recoveries from mass extinctions and confined diversity to a relatively narrow range over the past 500 million years (Myr). First, a drop in diversity of any size correlates with low extinction rates immediately afterward, so much so that extinction would almost come to a halt if diversity dropped by 90%. Second, very high extinction rates are followed by equally high origination rates. The two relationships predict that the rebound from the current mass extinction will take at least 10 Myr, and perhaps 40 Myr if it rivals the Permo-Triassic catastrophe. Regardless, any large event will result in a dramatic ecological and taxonomic restructuring of the biosphere. The data also confirm that extinction and origination rates both declined through the Phanerozoic and that several extinctions in addition to the Permo-Triassic event were particularly severe. However, the trend may be driven by taxonomic biases and the rates vary in accord with a simple log normal distribution, so there is no sharp distinction between background and mass extinctions. Furthermore, the lack of any significant autocorrelation in the data is inconsistent with macroevolutionary theories of periodicity or self-organized criticality.
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A close pairing of high extinction rates followed by high origination rates is common in the Phanerozoic biotic record.
“Such a close pairing of high extinction rates followed by high origination rates is common in the Phanerozoic biotic record (79) and suggests the operation of an equilibrium, diversity-dependent dynamic where interspecific competition controls total biodiversity.”
From Sea level controls on Ediacaran-Cambrian animal radiations (2024) · cites this paper as [79]
The close pairing of high extinction followed by high origination suggests the operation of an equilibrium, diversity-dependent dynamic where interspecific competition controls total biodiversity.
“Such a close pairing of high extinction rates followed by high origination rates is common in the Phanerozoic biotic record (79) and suggests the operation of an equilibrium, diversity-dependent dynamic where interspecific competition controls total biodiversity.”
From Sea level controls on Ediacaran-Cambrian animal radiations (2024) · cites this paper as [79]
The general trend of increasing biodiversity of macroscopic organisms with time still appears to hold.
“However, the general trend of increasing biodiversity of macroscopic organisms with time still appears to hold (Alroy, 2008).”
From The Astrobiology Primer v2.0 (2016) · cites this paper as Alroy, 2008
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Wake, D. B., & Vredenburg, V. T. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0801921105 · Cited by 1,786 · see citing works
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“However, the general trend of increasing biodiversity of macroscopic organisms with time still appears to hold (Alroy, 2008).”
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- Authors
- Alroy, J.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
- Corresponding author
- Alroy, John
- ORCID
- Alroy, John
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2008-08-12
- Volume
- 105
- Issue
- supplement_1
- Pages
- 11536-11542
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2556405
- OpenAlex
- W2075331526
- Cited by
- 525
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 20 · 2025: 23 · 2024: 32 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 30 · 2020: 26 · 2019: 44 · 2018: 27 · 2017: 25 · 2016: 32 · 2015: 26 · 2014: 30 · 2013: 27 · 2012: 30
- FWCI
- 23.08
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (0072909)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Evolution and Paleontology Studies
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Paleontology and Stratigraphy of Fossils
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Paleontology and Evolutionary Biology
- Keywords
- origination rates, extinction rates, mass extinction, marine invertebrates, fossil record, Phanerozoic, lognormal distribution, taxonomic bias, autocorrelation, self-organized criticality, macroevolution, biodiversity loss
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Biological Evolution, Fossils, Marine Biology, Extinction, Biological
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