The DOI matches its Crossref record; 7 of the 7 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change
Open accessAbstract
Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Here, we show that this is not the case in 21st-century climate change scenarios simulated with climate models. In the tropics, precipitation extremes are not simulated reliably and do not change consistently among climate models; in the extratropics, they consistently increase more slowly than atmospheric water vapor content. We give a physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate and show that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate, in the upward velocity, and in the temperature when precipitation extremes occur. For the tropics, the theory suggests that improving the simulation of upward velocities in climate models is essential for improving predictions of precipitation extremes; for the extratropics, agreement with theory and the consistency among climate models increase confidence in the robustness of predictions of precipitation extremes under climate change.
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Cites
Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., & Hegerl, G. C. (2007) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli4066.1 · Cited by 1,103
Precipitation Characteristics in Eighteen Coupled Climate Models
Dai, A. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3884.1 · Cited by 1,098
Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes
Lenderink, G., & van Meijgaard, E. (2008) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo262 · Cited by 1,072
Relationships between precipitation and surface temperature
Trenberth, K. E., & Shea, D. J. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl022760 · Cited by 753 · cited 1×
“‡Analysis of the covariability of monthly mean precipitation and surface temperature also reveals a positive correlation between temperature anomalies and precipitation at high latitudes in winter, but different correlations in other seasons and regions (24); these results are not directly comparable with our study be…”
ResultConceptual Framework for Changes of Extremes of the Hydrological Cycle with Climate Change
Trenberth, K. E. (1999) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1023/a:1005488920935 · Cited by 571
Wilcox, E. M., & Donner, L. J. (2007) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3987.1 · Cited by 174
Thermodynamic constraint on the cloud liquid water feedback in climate models
Betts, A. K., & Harshvardhan (1987) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/jd092id07p08483 · Cited by 160
Cited by
More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions
Donat, M. G., Lowry, A. L., Alexander, L. V., O’Gorman, P. A., & Maher, N. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2941 · Cited by 1,792
Self-citationWestra, S., Fowler, H. J., Evans, J. P., Alexander, L. V., Berg, P., Johnson, F., Kendon, E. J., Lenderink, G., & Roberts, N. M. (2014) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1002/2014rg000464 · Cited by 1,533
Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World
AghaKouchak, A., Chiang, F., Huning, L. S., Love, C. A., Mallakpour, I., Mazdiyasni, O., Moftakhari, H., Papalexiou, S. M., Ragno, E., & Sadegh, M. (2020) · Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences · doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-071719-055228 · Cited by 1,103
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000
Pall, P., Aina, T., Stone, D. A., Stott, P. A., Nozawa, T., Hilberts, A. G. J., Lohmann, D., & Allen, M. R. (2011) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature09762 · Cited by 871
Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change
O’Gorman, P. A. (2015) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3 · Cited by 881
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- O'Gorman, P. A., & Schneider, T.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2009-09
- Volume
- 106
- Issue
- 35
- Pages
- 14773-14777
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- OpenAlex
- W2120618726
- Cited by
- 1,154
- References
- 7
- FWCI
- 29.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
