The DOI matches its Crossref record; 54 of the 54 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity
Open accessAbstract
“Space-for-time” substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption—that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity—rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as “time-for-time” predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing
R Core Team (2025) · doi:10.32614/r.manuals · Cited by 352,181
Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas
Hijmans, R. J., Cameron, S. E., Parra, J. L., Jones, P. G., & Jarvis, A. (2005) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.1276 · Cited by 19,825
Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time
Elith, J., & Leathwick, J. R. (2009) · Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics · doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159 · Cited by 6,707
Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models
Guisan, A., & Thuiller, W. (2005) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x · Cited by 6,587
MatchIt : Nonparametric Preprocessing for Parametric Causal Inference
Ho, D. E., Imai, K., King, G., & Stuart, E. A. (2011) · Journal of Statistical Software · doi:10.18637/jss.v042.i08 · Cited by 4,385
Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference
Ho, D. E., Imai, K., King, G., & Stuart, E. A. (2007) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/pan/mpl013 · Cited by 4,205
Positive interactions in communities
Bertness, M. D., & Callaway, R. (1994) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/0169-5347(94)90088-4 · Cited by 3,823
Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
Solomon, S., Plattner, G.-K., Knutti, R., & Friedlingstein, P. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0812721106 · Cited by 3,217
Mayewski, P. A., Rohling, E. E., Curt Stager, J., Karlén, W., Maasch, K. A., Meeker, L. D., Meyerson, E. A., Gasse, F., van Kreveld, S., Holmgren, K., et al. (2004) · Quaternary Research · doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2004.07.001 · Cited by 2,587
High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present
Lüthi, D., Le Floch, M., Bereiter, B., Blunier, T., Barnola, J.-M., Siegenthaler, U., Raynaud, D., Jouzel, J., Fischer, H., Kawamura, K., et al. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06949 · Cited by 2,564
Cited by
Cross‐validation strategies for data with temporal, spatial, hierarchical, or phylogenetic structure
Roberts, D. R., Bahn, V., Ciuti, S., Boyce, M. S., Elith, J., Guillera‐Arroita, G., Hauenstein, S., Lahoz‐Monfort, J. J., Schröder, B., Thuiller, W., et al. (2017) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/ecog.02881 · Cited by 3,689
Pollen-based climate reconstruction techniques for late Quaternary studies
Chevalier, M., Davis, B. A. S., Heiri, O., Seppä, H., Chase, B. M., Gajewski, K., Lacourse, T., Telford, R. J., Finsinger, W., Guiot, J., et al. (2020) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103384 · Cited by 369
Paleodistribution modeling in archaeology and paleoanthropology
Franklin, J., Potts, A. J., Fisher, E. C., Cowling, R. M., & Marean, C. W. (2015) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.12.015 · Cited by 71
Boer, M. M., Bowman, D. M. J. S., Murphy, B. P., Cary, G. J., Cochrane, M. A., Fensham, R. J., Krawchuk, M. A., Price, O. F., De Dios, V. R., Williams, R. J., et al. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/065002 · Cited by 63
Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems
(2013) · doi:10.5194/esd-4-347-2013 · Cited by 58
Metadata
- Authors
- Blois, J. L., Williams, J. W., Fitzpatrick, M. C., Jackson, S. T., & Ferrier, S.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2013-05-20
- Volume
- 110
- Issue
- 23
- Pages
- 9374-9379
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- OpenAlex
- W2152042241
- Cited by
- 786
- References
- 54
- FWCI
- 29.18
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1073/pnas.1220228110
- The paper
- Blois, J. L., Williams, J. W., Fitzpatrick, M. C., Jackson, S. T., & Ferrier, S. (2013). Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1220228110
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
