Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change
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Significance: Understanding how changes in climate will affect terrestrial ecosystems is particularly important in tropical forest regions, which store large amounts of carbon and exert important feedbacks onto regional and global climates. By combining multiple types of observations with a state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem model, we demonstrate that the sensitivity of tropical forests to changes in climate is dependent on the length of the dry season and soil type, but also, importantly, on the dynamics of individual-level competition within plant canopies. These interactions result in ecosystems that are more sensitive to changes in climate than has been predicted by traditional models but that transition from one ecosystem type to another in a continuous, non–tipping-point manner.
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Amazonian forests are heterogeneous in their resilience to disturbances, which may have contributed to buffering large-scale transitions in the past.
“Amazonian forests are heterogeneous in their resilience to disturbances, which may have contributed to buffering large-scale transitions in the past37,61,62.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [62]
The Significance section describes heterogeneous responses to a drying climate and says forest reorganization can buffer against drastic threshold changes in vegetation state. It discusses predicted future changes, however, not evidence that heterogeneity buffered large-scale transitions in the past; its analysis also focuses on climate-related water stress rather than disturbances generally. Page numbers were not provided in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSignificant effects on simulation results may emerge from increasing plant functional diversity, representation of key physiological trade-offs and other features that determine water stress on plants, and allowing for community adjustment to environmental heterogeneity and global change.
“Significant effects on simulation results may emerge from increasing plant functional diversity, representation of key physiological trade-offs and other features that determine water stress on plants, and also allowing for community adjustment to environmental heterogeneity and global change32,55,62,99.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [62]
The Significance section (page unavailable) shows that representing individual plant water stress and canopy dynamics, rather than an aggregated canopy, substantially changes simulated forest responses. It also predicts changes in forest composition following drought. Our copy does not specifically show that increasing plant functional diversity or representing key physiological trade-offs produces significant effects on simulation results. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSimulating individual trees can improve the representation of growth and mortality dynamics, which ultimately affect forest dynamics.
“Simulating individual trees can improve the representation of growth and mortality dynamics, which ultimately affect forest dynamics (for example, refs. 61,62,99).”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [62]
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Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system
Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0 · Cited by 607 · see citing works
Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts
Longo, M., Knox, R. G., Levine, N. M., Alves, L. F., Bonal, D., Camargo, P. B., Fitzjarrald, D. R., Hayek, M. N., Restrepo‐Coupe, N., Saleska, S. R., et al. (2018) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.15185 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Levine, N. M., Zhang, K., Longo, M., Baccini, A., Phillips, O. L., Lewis, S. L., Alvarez-Dávila, E., Segalin de Andrade, A. C., Brienen, R. J. W., Erwin, T. L., Feldpausch, T. R., Monteagudo Mendoza, A. L., Nuñez Vargas, P., Prieto, A., Silva-Espejo, J. E., Malhi, Y., & Moorcroft, P. R.
- Affiliations
- University of Southern California (US)
- Harvard University (US)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Jardín Botánico de Medellín, Grupo de Investigación en Servicios Ecosistémicos y Cambio Climático, 14 Medellin, Colombia;
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Manaus - AM, 69067-375, Brazil;
- Smithsonian Institution (US)
- University of Exeter (GB)
- Jardín Botánico de Missouri, Oxapampa, Peru;
- Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Cusco, Peru;
- Instituto de Ciencias Naturales, Bogota, Colombia;
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Moorcroft, Paul R.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2015-12-28
- Volume
- 113
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 793-797
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC4725538
- OpenAlex
- W2203684104
- Cited by
- 225
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 19 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 13
- FWCI
- 12.73
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (acceptedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (AAI)
- NOAA Climate and Global Change Fellowship (n/a)
- Natural Environment Research Council (n/a)
- European Research Council (n/a)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Keywords
- Amazon rainforest, ecosystem resilience, climate change, ecosystem heterogeneity, dry season length, water stress, soil texture, forest biomass, forest composition, forest dynamics, forest decline, woody savannah, human disturbance, fire, logging
- MeSH terms
- Brazil, Dehydration, Seasons, Soil, Ecosystem, Biomass, Climate Change, Remote Sensing Technology
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