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Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change
Open accessAbstract
Significance: We applied regional and global-scale biogeochemical models that coupled thaw depth with soil carbon exposure to evaluate the dependence of the evolution of future carbon storage in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change. Our analysis indicates that the northern permafrost region could act as a net sink for carbon under more aggressive climate change mitigation pathways. Under less aggressive pathways, the region would likely act as a source of soil carbon to the atmosphere, but substantial net losses would not occur until after 2100. These results suggest that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.
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Cites
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
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Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
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Self-citationThe Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 1: Energy and water fluxes
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Self-citationPermafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming
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Self-citationToward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models
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Cited by
Lawrence, D. M., Fisher, R. A., Koven, C. D., Oleson, K. W., Swenson, S. C., Bonan, G., Collier, N., Ghimire, B., van Kampenhout, L., Kennedy, D., et al. (2019) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2018ms001583 · Cited by 2,060
Self-citationExceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abn7950 · Cited by 1,931
Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic
Miner, K. R., Turetsky, M. R., Malina, E., Bartsch, A., Tamminen, J., McGuire, A. D., Fix, A., Sweeney, C., Elder, C. D., & Miller, C. E. (2022) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3 · Cited by 538
Self-citationLarge loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region
Natali, S. M., Watts, J. D., Rogers, B. M., Potter, S., Ludwig, S. M., Selbmann, A.-K., Sullivan, P. F., Abbott, B. W., Arndt, K. A., Birch, L., et al. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8 · Cited by 452
Self-citationThe status and stability of permafrost carbon on the Tibetan Plateau
Mu, C., Abbott, B. W., Norris, A. J., Mu, M., Fan, C., Chen, X., Jia, L., Yang, R., Zhang, T., Wang, K., et al. (2020) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103433 · Cited by 312
Metadata
- Authors
- McGuire, A. D., Lawrence, D. M., Koven, C., Clein, J. S., Burke, E., Chen, G., Jafarov, E., MacDougall, A. H., Marchenko, S., Nicolsky, D., Peng, S., Rinke, A., Ciais, P., Gouttevin, I., Hayes, D. J., Ji, D., Krinner, G., Moore, J. C., Romanovsky, V., Schädel, C., Schaefer, K., Schuur, E. A. G., & Zhuang, Q.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2018-03-26
- Volume
- 115
- Issue
- 15
- Pages
- 3882-3887
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- OpenAlex
- W2790765982
- Cited by
- 553
- References
- 50
- FWCI
- 24.32
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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- McGuire, A. D., Lawrence, D. M., Koven, C., Clein, J. S., Burke, E., Chen, G., Jafarov, E., MacDougall, A. H., Marchenko, S., Nicolsky, D., Peng, S., Rinke, A., Ciais, P., Gouttevin, I., Hayes, D. J., Ji, D., Krinner, G., Moore, J. C., Romanovsky, V., . . . Zhuang, Q. (2018). Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1719903115
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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